SPX500 recession is already here?
I compared what happened in 2008 with current chart:
- In 2008, the market fell over 50%
- In 2008, the bear market lasted around 450 days
If we’re about to witness similar situation now, we are long way from the bottom:
- 50% drop would be around 2200, they we would see double bottom and trend revelsal
- the bear market would last till March/April 2023
Of course the market doesn’t have to repeat the same pattern.
I believe the worst is yet to come. If we look into this using Elliott waves, we did Wave 1, we’re about to finish Wave 2- 4200 strong resistance. It means next Wave 3 will be a big one.
After seeing good numbers on Non Farm Payrols last Friday, the markets didn’t rally.
It means Fed might be more hawkish in September to fight the inflation, raising interests rates even by 0.75 point.
It is not a trading advice, please do your own analysis.
- In 2008, the market fell over 50%
- In 2008, the bear market lasted around 450 days
If we’re about to witness similar situation now, we are long way from the bottom:
- 50% drop would be around 2200, they we would see double bottom and trend revelsal
- the bear market would last till March/April 2023
Of course the market doesn’t have to repeat the same pattern.
I believe the worst is yet to come. If we look into this using Elliott waves, we did Wave 1, we’re about to finish Wave 2- 4200 strong resistance. It means next Wave 3 will be a big one.
After seeing good numbers on Non Farm Payrols last Friday, the markets didn’t rally.
It means Fed might be more hawkish in September to fight the inflation, raising interests rates even by 0.75 point.
It is not a trading advice, please do your own analysis.
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