Establishing a Bottom - 390s next stop
تم تحديثه
The near term path is clear. The overall bigger picture is clear, but the precise mid-term path is tricky. The main this here is that the whole goal of the price action we will see over the next couple months is for the market to do 2 things:
1) complete wave 4 before starting wave 5 to new highs by the end of 2022 or early 2023
2) big money wants to accumulate shares at a low enough average price, yet without invalidating the 13 year bullish structure (such that wave 5 can finish at a new all time high - at which point they will distribute shares to FOMO retail before the realization of the recession kicks off and we enter an actual bear market)
So I'm not pretending the economy/environment is not high risk, but I am implying they need to create the FUD in order to squeeze the FUD and initiate markup to much higher levels where they can distribute.
I have an update for the near term path in my last post with a more precise idea after the information futures price action gave us last night (these point levels are the blue horizontal rays in my chart, this local path is the solid black):
- expecting run at open enroute to 389-391 to fill that gap (this will unfold the next 2 days)
- then a pullback to around 383 early next week
- after that 1 more final leg up near-term to around 395-398 (end of next week)... I do not think we will fill the 401 gap just yet - they need to leave that open for the run off the new low (or the double bottom) that will follow the near-term move to 395ish. Also we have a new gap to fill down from yesterday so going to want to close that after the first gap up is filled.
After 395-398, we will see more downside, I am just not sure yet on which of the 2 yet will most likely illustrate (and also not sure of the levels). Best guess either dotted black or dashed black:
- in dotted black scenario we move down from 395-398 to form a new low and, thus, a triple combo to end wave 4 in the range of 340-350s
- in the dashed black scenario we attempt to complete this expanding triangle, but that timeline doesn't align with what I am seeing now for crypto and they generally correlate pretty well. For crypto I am expecting ETH to run to 1300s and then get hit pretty hard to a new low (that will mark its bottom), for BTC expecting run to upper 20k before getting hit pretty hard to new low and confirming its bottom. So if SPY follows that, dotted black is most likely. Perhaps market and crypto bottom in August and begin run to new highs by end of 2022/early 2023. I expect October to be very bullish.
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1) complete wave 4 before starting wave 5 to new highs by the end of 2022 or early 2023
2) big money wants to accumulate shares at a low enough average price, yet without invalidating the 13 year bullish structure (such that wave 5 can finish at a new all time high - at which point they will distribute shares to FOMO retail before the realization of the recession kicks off and we enter an actual bear market)
So I'm not pretending the economy/environment is not high risk, but I am implying they need to create the FUD in order to squeeze the FUD and initiate markup to much higher levels where they can distribute.
I have an update for the near term path in my last post with a more precise idea after the information futures price action gave us last night (these point levels are the blue horizontal rays in my chart, this local path is the solid black):
- expecting run at open enroute to 389-391 to fill that gap (this will unfold the next 2 days)
- then a pullback to around 383 early next week
- after that 1 more final leg up near-term to around 395-398 (end of next week)... I do not think we will fill the 401 gap just yet - they need to leave that open for the run off the new low (or the double bottom) that will follow the near-term move to 395ish. Also we have a new gap to fill down from yesterday so going to want to close that after the first gap up is filled.
After 395-398, we will see more downside, I am just not sure yet on which of the 2 yet will most likely illustrate (and also not sure of the levels). Best guess either dotted black or dashed black:
- in dotted black scenario we move down from 395-398 to form a new low and, thus, a triple combo to end wave 4 in the range of 340-350s
- in the dashed black scenario we attempt to complete this expanding triangle, but that timeline doesn't align with what I am seeing now for crypto and they generally correlate pretty well. For crypto I am expecting ETH to run to 1300s and then get hit pretty hard to a new low (that will mark its bottom), for BTC expecting run to upper 20k before getting hit pretty hard to new low and confirming its bottom. So if SPY follows that, dotted black is most likely. Perhaps market and crypto bottom in August and begin run to new highs by end of 2022/early 2023. I expect October to be very bullish.
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ملاحظة
run to initial upside target of 389-390 starts nowملاحظة
lift offملاحظة
So far exactly as expected.overshot the 390 slightly so not sure if it will make it to 383 or bounce just above it right here. Next level will be 397-401 (adjusting this slightly from my initial 395-398 target following this pullback. Invalidated if we see sustained break below 376-378 (not likely, this setup is the spring/shakeout of re-accumulation over last couple days).ملاحظة
Next fib retracement level is 377.67, I'm noticing a nested bullish harmonic forming in todays trading session.. watching for explosive upside when it completes around the 377.67 at 12:45pm. Next stop still ~400 unless this breaks down below 368. Next fib would be 374.01 and a bounce from there would still be near-term bullish to ~395-397.I see a bigger picture alt count that gives the possibility of seeing continuation beyond 400 to low 420s. It's overdone right now from a technical perspective on yesterdays carnage so a bounce seems imminent.
ملاحظة
And now (e)ملاحظة
almost time to sellملاحظة
Expecting divergence from the path here, it will likely continue to 440s possibly 450s and then ABC corrective wave to 390s (this would imply June low was end of larger degree wave IV, and after establishing a higher low it will run to new all time highs in the 500s)ملاحظة
5th wave should begin from here toward new high by May 2023
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