ContraryTrader

Spy

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AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Headed back to 444 here on spy..
The route to 444 may have a couple of zig zags on the way there but I think either by the time big tech earnings comes or goes we will have tagged 444..

Weekly charts

NYSE - hammer of previous resistance. Look for a wedge retest at 16,000


Qqq
Hammer candle.
Look for a retest of 372 before you try a short.


IWM
Weekly candle hammer.
Bounced off fib support.
Notice how it can chop between 180 and 170 for weeks? Upside target for now is only 180.

Dji
Weekly candle hammer..
Look for a retest of 34,300



Those above target are my mid term and pivot targets.. what i mean is, by the end of this quarter and most likely in the next 2-3 weeks we should hit those targets across the board.
Those targets will also act as a tough resistance.

Daily candles
You see the candles on the
SPY
DjI
IWM

That's a bullish harami! With the volume of friday I expect a green close Monday minimum.

For the spy I'm looking
At a 432.30 gap close by Tuesday.
Daily 21ema is around that area so I wouldn't advise swinging at that area.

I would cover at 432 and wait for a close above 433. My gut tells me they won't break over 433 with a catalyst (PPi,CPi,Fed minutes).


Possible patterns that would get us over 432.

1. Inverted H&S - this would require a retest of 425-426... I hate the formation of shoulders because it requires hours/Days of chop to round off.


2. Double bottom with a handle
In This scenario We would break over and head straight to 435 before a pullback and retest of 429-430 and then long to 445



I'll go over NQ,ES later ..

You guys notice the 3 white knight candle patterns on the banks? Bank earnings Friday, they'll probably front run them early
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XLK (Msft /aapl)

Headed back to 174 area which most likely means aapl 180+.. I highlighted the previous inverted H&S and the current double bottom that will take us up
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Smh (Nvda/AMD)

Similar double bottom here .. chips actually started their rally ahead of most tech here.
Headed back up to 152 resistance then let's see what happens
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XLC
(Googl/Meta)

Headed back to 68..
Same double bottom
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XLY
(AMZN/TSLA)

This one really has my attention. Unlike most other tech stocks that have broken out of their double bottom patterns, XLY hasn't yet which means an explosive move is coming to Amzn/Tsla similar to what you saw on Meta and Msft..
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I showed all these tech sectors to say this,
THE BIG PICTURE 📸 is DISTRIBUTION.
once those sectors reach the top you renter short the above mentioned stocks.
Simple supply and demand trade.

And this is why I can't entertain Spy new ATH or even 460. These sectors would have to break to the upside of these ranges first
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Morning!.
If we drop below 427 chances are we test 425.50..

The support there is
1hour 50sma
Daily 200ema

Most likely right shoulder forms...
Left shoulder took 2days of chop to form so me may chop between 425-429 until Wed PPI and fed minutes..
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Oil stocks up because situation I'm Israel

Looking at ExxonMobil (Xom).
111.50 gap close is most likely
Or 50sma .
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Be careful chasing shorts today...
Futures (Es/Nq) Look fishy.
Also daily candles from Friday were bullish. They could buy this up.

Vix rejected at 19.55 , most likely a pullback to 18.20

In my opinion, find yourself a dip.
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Qqq bounced off 360 and market bounced with it.. go figure
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Big week ahead.. take the decent scalps and have patience.. should expects some chop and consolidation...
I dont like the swings here if you're trading 10/13...
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XLE closed gap at 88.60 if you're long energy.. tighten stops
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Spy 15min
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Vix sitting on that 18.26 support.. if it breaks that market moves highers.
If vix bounces , chop persist.

Inflection point
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Spy 30min chart..
Small wedge forming..
Should see a move up to 436 by wed before a 429-432 retest

Qqq similar pattern
Has room for the move up to 370.. pushed up to its 200sma 1hour.. I get anxious swinging calls with qqq right below it .. worse case scenario 364-365 and bounce off trend..

Overall my Pre Ppi targets have been hit, any move higher tomorrow would be extra.


Lesson learned today - Bullish haramis are powerful
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Vix sitting on its daily and hourly 200sma..
I don't like the swing of calls here. Better to wait for the open tomorrow
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Last update..
2 and 3 hour MFI on ES and NQ too Overbought..

Not saying short, I'm just saying it risky to swing short dated longs here
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Morning!
Daily 21ema and daily 20sma are both around 432.50-433.50 so that would be the gauntlet area spy would need to cross on the road to 435..

Overbought DOES NOT MEAN BEARISH. Market has no reason to dump ahead of ppi especially with the momentum from Friday and Monday. My gut tells me fawkery early, then a grind up later .. let's see what happens
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See this..
XLY sector 1hour chart

*Amzn/Tsla
At the top of a neutral triangle . Depending on if it breaks up or down will impact amzn and tsla moves today..

Now look at tsla and amzn chart here . Similar situation .

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And just like that
XLY sector
Has joined the bull rally
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Vix next stop 17.00 on 21ema
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Qqq 50sma at 367.50. Needs to get over that for the rest of tech to pop
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Pumping financials,cylicals, health.. tech on the back burner, not bearish. But not getting the most love today
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You see the dow 200sma and 21ema at 33,800? That's tough resistance

Starting placing stops on your longs
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Placed a stop on amzn calls.. 40%

Done for the day

No volume here, just a slow melt up... I'll be back on later
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Covered here on Amzn.


Spy 1hour next resistance 437.50
Or this trendline ..

Could be a trap for the 438.50 gap chasers..
Either I'm on the sideline
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You see the green daily candles in a row?
That's a white soldier bullish pattern.. usually means a 4th green candle is coming.

If PPI is good the squeeze will continue.
For those of you rushing to short becareful.. OVERBOUGHT DOESNT MEAN BEARISH
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Qqq next resistance , 371.80
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Qqq diamond pattern...
The move is usually the length of the diamond upon break out.. In this case, the length was 3% wide so the measure move is 372 for qqq
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Vix retesting breakout of the channel..

Most likely a bounce first then a fall through later
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XLC (Googl/Meta)
At the top of a distribution range ...

Meta closed gap at 322 today, most likely a pullback to 317 .. 325.50 resistance.
Below 317 and we see 310.. I doubt 310 breaks
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Retailers (The herd) always piles on at the end of a run. Over the summer when spy was at 455, retail wanted 480.
Last wee when spy drop to 420 retail chased 410-415.
Now retailers are opening up 445 calls after the market has moved up 4% in 3 days

Im expecting a pullback to 21ema or 432 first before 444 like so
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Nasdaq (IXIC)
2hour RSI..
At resistance here.. usually a sizeable 1½% pullback follows the tag of this resistance within the next 2 trading sessions




I'll be back EOD
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Target frome here on spy is 21ema retest 430-432.. PPI could cause a gap up but at this point I'll fade it ..

Some interesting stuff on Vix chart... , it's supports a temporary bounce on vix . I'll post it later.

Dow Jones rejected at 200sma (Important)..

Overall too extended here to swing calls.. market will pullback, just waiting on some bad news/Catalyst to frame it on..

Until tomorrow ✌
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Vix 1hour chart

2 scenarios here.

1st scenario - PPI comes in and market dumps and vix pumps back up to 18.20 - 18.50


2nd scenario - ppi comes in and market pumps, vix dumps to 16.00 until FOMC minutes and then pops back up to 18.20
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Dow 1hour...
If we can't Crack 34k or 200sma tomorrow then look for a pullback for a right shoulder formation.. Friday is full of dow listed earnings , especially UNH.
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10yr or TNX..
Market has benefited last 2 days of pullback from 10yr.. Now approaching 21ema and 4.575 gap.
10yr has been riding 21ema since June. I expect a gap close then bounce off 21ema next 2days
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Morning!!!.
Opening up neutral with Spy gap over head..

IWM looks weak, yesterday it got rejected on 21ema.

At these levels we have to wait and see what happens..

I'm leaning bearish today but I advise to buy some time , 10/20 minimum just incase they pop for the gap close overhead.
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Msft
2hour chart

Stiff resistance at 331.50, both trend line and fib. I like the short in that area,
325 or 50 sma for the target .
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Games..
I'm short Googl here at 140.10
138p
10/13

Has a gap left over at 140.59 to close, will add more if it pushes higher
141 stop..
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Shitty breadth..
A few big named keeping this propped

META
GOOGL
NVDA
MSFT

All tech
Here's a look at IXIC (Nasdaq composite)..
4hour chart..

Not much more room to the upside here .. careful if you're long
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Added more googl puts here at 140.55


XLC daily chart.. (Meta / Googl)
Closed gap at 68.71

Top of supply area in distribution phase.
Short- mid term , looking for a move lower
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Quick update on googl.. plunge protector of the day..

Could push up to 142 if it holds above 141..
Still I'm bearish on the back down to 135-137 by next week
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Vix 1hour chart..
Sitting right below daily 21ema at 17.00
Falling wedge break out.. over 21ema and we head back to 18.30
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10yr 30min chart..
Bounced from gap close and broke outside downtrend.. most likely
Close gap from today
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Qqq 30min..
Fell out of wedge yesterday and has been range trading between 368 and 371.
If market reacts negatively to minutes we head to 365.
If things go bullish we head to 372.50
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Up 40 on googl puts..
Placed my stop loss at 10% profits..
Logic: Risk and reward
I'm willing to risk all of my profits for another 150% if this flushes after minutes
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Meta 30min chart and RSI..
Terrible bearish divergence.
You can see it on hourly time frames which means the dump is coming within days
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Covered on googl..
Minutes nothing burger..
Don't want to swing into CPI
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Careful here

Spy channel made on 1hour..

Could be a possible bullflag ..
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Woke up with IWM and googl puts on my mind.. went with googl. Made some eked out smalls gains.. Something about the allure of trading tech 😆..

I'm bullish on spy to 440-444 , I'm just looking for a decent pullback to hop back in .. it may come or it may not..

Catch you'll tomorrow ✌
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Low volume here across the board.. the turned on the algos EOD.. The volume on the SPY considering ppi and minutes was really suspect.. That type of volume will never break through 440
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It's time tomorrow bears 😈.
Nq 2hour chart
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Qqq daily chart.. qqq hit my target of 372.50 even though spy didn't get close to 440.. tech leads the market here .
Qqq at resistance
Best short entry
Below 371

Vix 2hour chart.. will need to hold 15.90 or it's a double top back to 13.00..
We hold 15.90 and vix may form right shoulder which would cause a market pullback before another rally
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There is a path to Spy 438 gap close that doesn't require qqq moving over 374...
If qqq maintains 372.50 and they pump the dow then they would get there 438..
Manipulation
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This type of fawkery is why I said to grab 10/20 minimum
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Aapl and amzn both are mid way through gap closes. I'd be surprised if they didn't get it done today..

Qqq flagging on 5min
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Dow jones and NYA(NYSE) 30min..
Notice how the right shoulder.. the fact they keep propping it up there should make a bear nervous.. Banks, and Healthcare earnings start tomorrow. We'll see what happens then
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Really a mix day.. I wouldn't want to be long tech here but I wouldn't want to be short Dow right now either headed into bank and health earnings.

Be back on later
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Qqq 15min..
Pennant above 371 breakout...
Pennant can go either way but I bearish back below 371
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Googl.. lmao dirtbags...



Vix 1hour chart..
17.00 resistance.. Falling wedge pattern here

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Qqq 15min..
Today's pop could've been a head forming for H&S..

368 next support.. could bounce there for today..
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This market can't go anywhere without tech..
With that being said, watch QQQ 50sma test at 367
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Qqq back above 368..
Range now is 368- 370..
With 50sma right below at 367.00..
I don't expect a V shape recovery today.. maybe a 370 test at best before heading back low.
My pullback target is 364 or 21ema but I'd wait for the close below 367 to target 21ema
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2 important things happened today.. Vix bounced off 16.00 and QQQ rejected from trendline resistance.

If you're long, your wrong.!.
Until later ✌
تعليق:
So qqq rejected resistance here


I think QQQ is now forming a right shoulder..
This is why the price action was so frustrating last 2 sessions
. Shoulders,bottoms, tops all require Choo. Remember mid week last week when spy chopped between 420-425 for 2 days to form right bottom? Exactly.


So going forward with tomorrow ..
368-371 will be our range to finish up this shoulder which I think will come at some point tomorrow. The target for this pattern would be 361-362 on QQQ which would put spy back at 425-427.


Those of you who like to Odte Friday contracts need to be weary of the chop until we break and head below 50sma...

To those of you wondering if 444 still is at play on Spy. I think spy will need to hold 425 in the coming days for that to be relevant now.

Also here's NQ , same H&S with a 15,000 target.. like I said expect a pop premarket and more Chop to form right shoulder
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This is what I was warning about when I said I wouldn't short The dow. Energy up again on Israel conflict.
Health sector up because of UNH
And most banks had Blow out earnings.
XLF,XLE ,XLV.
Tech will still be weak so that will make spy choppy at best.
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Dow jones 1hour chart..
Same possible inverted Head and shoulder.

Keeps getting smacked down at 200 or 33,900.. let's say it pushes up to that level today, that's 270pts from yesterday's close.
Would be consider a range trade unless we close over 34,000.
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Vix 30min..
Pennant forming on right shoulder.
We break above 17.60 and asked dumps
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Spy 15min.. broadening wedge here..

Trendline support near 430
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Spy.. 5min 200sma.. that's the cock blocker holding things up

Vix back tested pennant and bounced

Qqq chopping as expected rounding off that shoulder... let's see what happens
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Qqq first test 50sma... I covered googl 0dte at 138 gap close 180%.. probably gonna regret that lol..

Be back on later
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MArket won't stop dumping until vix completes move at 19.50
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Alright guys Vix tagged target and qqq tagged 21ema
. Those were my short targets for today... anything else would be an extra surprise.
qqq should see 361-362 next week.
Be back on EOD.


Meta at 316 😈
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You see this double top neckline here on XLF at 33.50? Banks will have a tough time moving higher despite today's pop. Hourly shows the same Inverted H&S as the dow which means they won't go anywhere unless the dow can Crack 34,000
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Only good setup I see heading into next week is XOM.. double bottom forming that you can see on the hourly. Looks to be headed back to 116-120 in the coming weeks.
All energy stocks should outperform while this conflict escalates.


Enjoy your weekends ✌

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