SPY SEP 3rd

3 scenarios. No guessing. Just react.

🟢 Bull Case

Trigger: Clears + holds 644 (PMH)
↳ Buyers show up, QQQ & NVDA strong, VIX chill.

Play:
• Long 644+
• Targets: 648 / 650
• Risk: <642


⚖️ Chop Zone

Trigger:Stuck 637–644
↳ No real push either way, just range + noise.

Play:
• Scalp 637 → 644
• Light size or sit out
• Avoid forcing

🔴 Bear Case

Trigger: Loses 637
↳ Volume picks up, VIX >17.5, macro weak.

Play:
• Short <637
• Targets: 634 / 630
• Risk: >639

🔍 Flow Clues

• DP walls: 643–648 = tough resistance
• Big puts stacked at 615/635
• Seasonality leans red ⚠️


📌 TL;DR

> 644+ = bulls push
> 637–644 = chop zone
> 637 = bears in charge