⚡️ Gov SHUTDOWN?! Market will tank?! What to do in this case? ⚠️

٢٩ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٣

⚡️Some shutdown insights with chart:

Chart shows longest shutdown: 12/22/18 - 1/25/19

The fear factor has always been PRE-shutdown. Not DURING or POST-shutdown.

⚡️That means what?

• If we shutdown, we may dip say 2-3%.
  
• But what happens during shutdown?
  
• You'd be surprised market actually RECOVERS during shutdown. BY A LOT.
  
• During the shutdown in 2018-2019, the market recovered the ENTIRE DIP, whole +15%.
  
• That's the same thing that happened in 2013. The market rose 3% during shutdown.
  

⚡️So is shutdown really bad for markets?

• No. Only shutdown fears really cause a dramatic effect BEFORE it happens.
  
• Remember the psychology of "priced in". Once a shutdown happens and market reacts for a day or 2, it's priced in.
  

⚡️But why?

• After the shutdown happens, anything is good news.
  
• If they announce a deal, that's good news.
  
• If they vote, that's good news.
  
• Thus, market does well during shutdowns.
  

Good luck. 🙂

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٣٠ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

House passes bill. Senate now.
This will allow 45 more days.
Meaning more volatility/ uncertainty for 45 more days.
Bullish short-term on "good news".