Spy... Bounce then the next leg down

"Fib levels".
Across the board we are approaching so decent support levels. Usually when price approaches a strong fib level oversold you get a decent bounce.

Dow,NYA, Nasdaq, and Spy are all outside their daily bollingerbands 2 days straight. Daily Money flow has went oversold too.


Nya/Nyse daily chart.

Using all time high and 2020 lows for fib levels we get .786 fib support at 15,564.

I think NYSE bounces here we have a wedge retest which is common among rising wedges before the REAL leg down

Next up
Nasdaq/IXIC

Using All time highs and 2022 Oct lows , We get 13,150 fib support or 0.5 fib support. Then translate into 356 support on QQQ.

Dow jones/DJI
Approaching .618 fib support which aligns with the 200sma.. outside of a black swan, there's no way this breaks the 200sma on its first touch; A dead cat 2% bounce is more likely . Fib levels are from 2022 low and All time high

XLF(Banks)
Close at its double top neckline..

XLK
Showing same double top.. until 163 breaks STOP Shorting aapl and Msft. Should get one more pop up to 167 , then the real leg starts down.
Same double top as everything else

XLY
Same stuff. Stop directly at the neckline. I expect a bounce here before the drop.. no more shorts on TSLA or amzn until 160 breaks.

The target is still 417 on spy or 200sma. But there's a 75% chance we can see a bounce up to 439-441 if 428 holds early in the week.
If we lose 428 early then I'll reassess.

Small wedge formed that should take us back up..
First target would be 435 then gap close at 438. I don't believe in V shape recoveries so I expect a 435-436 back test before higher.

I'll go over vix later.
Also I see a really good setup on tsla to maximize this pop up .. I'll post an idea

تعليق:

Not much on the Economic calender to move the market until Friday PCE.. Also government shut down Oct 1st if no deal is reached.
Those 2 events could accelerate Spy down into 417


Vix daily chart and RSI
At resistance on both areas..

Right underneath 200sma at 18.00
I don't think it breaks that early in the week, look for a pullback to 14.50- 15.00 ..
A hot PCE and a government shut down could be the catalyst to breakout of this triangle but as of now, it's pullback time

تعليق:

In my last post , I said the vix would tag its 200 before a turn around.. Premarket vix tagged its 200 and price action of 18.23..

Vix Overbought conditions are the exact inverse of the Spy oversold. If we hold under 18.30 you will probably see vix with a shooting star candle close. If vix breaks over 18.30, the next resistance is 20.00.
If vix goes to 20.00 , spy goes to 424-426.

I think we find a short term bottom today and bounce into Thursday. I'm not opening any new shorts

تعليق:

In Tsla
250c 9/29
237 stop

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Vix 1hour candle closing , bearish engulfing..
Breaking back below daily 200sma.

IXIC bounced off 13,150..

تعليق:

Probably finish with a long legged/Dragon fly doji candle for Spy/QQQ...
The only hiccup I see is the dow. Should've tagged its 200 today but it stopped short. Will probably tag it tomorrow on consumer confidence and home sales while tech props things up

تعليق:

Games... Market moves much higher when vix breaks back below 17.50

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Ok so we got the dow 200sma test over, and it bounced.. we should find some footing.

Spy 15min chart

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Vix 1hour chart and RSI..
Bearish divergence .. Never lies

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Qqq next resistance is 359.50
Over that 361.50
15min chart...
I'll be back on later

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Qqq 15min chart update..
Pennant consolidation..

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Despite the Fawkery.. we got our shooting star on VIX.. look for a pump into thursday

تعليق:

Put dip buyers through all the BS rigmarole just to pop it up to session highs last 5min. I swear, you have to have the psychological fortitude of a navy seal to be a day trader 😆..l catch you'll tomorrow.
Daily candle pattern, Bullish engulfing or piercing pattern Spy/QQQ

تعليق:

NQ 2hour chart.. rising Wedge down , now Fallingnwedge back up.. expecting 15,150 from this pattern upside

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Vix 2hour chart.. sitting on support.. bearish divergence can be seen all the way on the 4hour chart which means the dump will be significant.

Vix Daily chart .. yesterday we closed with a shooting star, and today we gapped up ; The same thing happened last time before the flush

Consume confidence 30min after market opens. Then direction for the day will be chosen..

تعليق:

Placing my stop on tsla at 241.50
Theta is going to take a chunk outta me.

Unless we break yesterday's lows the dip is the play..

356.40
Qqq Support

428.20
Spy support

33,780
Dow jones support (200sma)

تعليق:

Covered on Tsla.. not breaking support, but market looks nasty

تعليق:

Qqq gaps below
354.50
353.00

تعليق:

Unless ixic can reclaim 13,150...
It's risk off for tech..

تعليق:

Some of the biggest tech names just hit some very strong support

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Vix 1hour..

May Tag resistance today.. I'll be looking to go long then ... otherwise I'm out

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Qqq 1hour chart.

Grinding in this tight channel here .

تعليق:

Es 4hour chart
Sitting on gap support at 4328.
1hour MFI oversold..
Look for a bounce back up to 4370 for here
Or 430 spy

تعليق:

Vix rejected off RSI resistance and weekly 50sma.
Looking for another pullback again on vix here...

تعليق:

Oversold but looks like no bounce until 417 spy..

423 spy support
349-350 QQQ Support

Vix resistance 20.00

Alot of supports lost today with no catalyst for a bounce until friday..

تعليق:

All of the supports I posted over the weekend from the sectors have been broken, So it's no coincidence Spy broke 429-430. For us to get back over 430, all of those levels will have to be reclaim.. The worst break was the Dow dropping back below its 200sma...

Spy bounced off its daily 200ema and Trendline support its been bouncing off of since Thursday..
Here's a 15min chart

Tomorrow we should attempt a bounce but I doubt we break over 429 without a major catalyst.

Here's 2 scenarios

1. We bounce and rally back up to 429 tomorrow and then flush again at resistance some point Thursday

2. Scenario 2
We bounce and break to the upside of this broadening wedge and rally into 435 gap resistance by Thursdays close

Vix pushed all the way to channel top and closed at resistance

تعليق:

Weak volume.. Very oversold , but no volume .. nasdaq tried but got rejected off 13,150...
Vix is just hovering, taking a Gatorade break..

Might not get a decent pop, just a grind down to 417-420..

تعليق:

Look at these levels for these 3 sectors on your day charts

(Msft/Aapl) XLK- 163
(Tsla/Amzn) XLY- 160
(Nvda/TSM) SMH -143


All of these levels are connected to Nasdaq 13,150. They will need to break to the upside for Nasdaq to push higher. No calls until then

تعليق:

XLC
(META/Googl).
Every other sector has broken their neckline except for XLC and that's why it's outperforming. Eventually XLC will lose 64.50 and with that Googl and Meta will flush

تعليق:

Next stop on the Dow is 32,800 or 50% retracement
This should accelerate spy to 417

تعليق:

423.97 is spy next support.. Strong support , but when it breaks 421.81 gap close will follow.

Trendlien support is also in that area

** It actually bounced there, let's see if that's the low of the day .

تعليق:

Vix 1hour
.
Tagged resistance again..
Price now forming a rising wedge..
Bearish divergence still .. Unless it breaks support we'll head back to 20.00.

تعليق:

Spy and qqq 5min chart.

Both just tagged
Resistance here.. pop maybe short lived

تعليق:

And just like clock work..
Vix bounces
Nasdaq rejects off 13,150
And September continues

.. catch you all tomorrow..
GDP premarket

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Nq 2hour chart... Could never breakout side thise bear channel ..
Most likely 14,527 gap close incoming

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Ym1 (Dow jones futures)
3hr chart.

Down trend for the last 7 days..
Look at the red arrow,, as you can see we pushed up to resistance premarket and couldn't break through because lack of buyers .

تعليق:

Vix ..
Below 17.80 and market can pop
Above 18.80 and market will flush

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Ixic 1hour chart.. pushing up against 13,150 and trendline resistance... will breakdown or up by EOD

تعليق:

Low volume ahead of PCE.. careful with 0dte, especially calls.

Low volume means , no breakouts.. from what I can see , we can't even breakover the 200sma on the 5min chart

Spy,QQQ,Tsla

تعليق:

Aapl broke that 173 support and has been trading inside this downtrend on its way to 165 gap close.
170 overhead resistance

تعليق:

Vix breaking down..
Next support 17.55

Under that and we go for 359 gap close on qqq

تعليق:

vix 2hour chart.. we should back test breakout here at 16.90- 17.00 .

If we bounce then the market has topped for the day..

Below 16.90 and we go for 16.50

تعليق:

On the sidelines.
Waiting for Googl to close gap at 133.69 to short.

130p 10/6
Target 127.00
Stop loss 20sma or 134.50

تعليق:

Qqq and Nasdaq Closed their gap but Spy and Dow haven't .

Vix has a gap at 16.90 that I think they will target today

تعليق:

We got the rally later in the week.
If PCE is received well they could push Spy up to 435 gap close on a melt up..

The pattern is a descending broadening wedge which is bullish. Usually the move is up to starting point of the wedge like so

If PCE has a negative reaction and we drop below 427 we will sell to
424
421.80 gap close
Tomorrow


Can we get 417 on Spy still even with a leg up to 435-440 ? Yes..

Looking at the VIX , we have just completed a Cup. If we pullback to the 50sma and hold that would be considered a handle

Why am I not buying the back to ATH theory or even 460?

That's because of the Rising wedge playing out on the NYSE ..

Here's a 4hour chart .. Notice there's 2 wedges. The smaller yellow wedge played out in March banking crisis.
The white wedge is 3x the size and will give us 3x the sell. .. unless we close back inside that Wedge this correction is ongoing and this is just a dead cat bounce.

Currently on the NYA/NYSE we are right under the 200sma and wedge support. Should we rally tomorrow, I expect a test of both.. If we reject there I would be weary of swinging calls

Although my target is 417(200sma) , the rising wedge on the NYSE could take us much lower.

Let's see what happens tomorrow

تعليق:

Qqq has gap resistance at 361.77.
If it can make it across then tech will rally more and close gap at 364.50 today..

Personally I wouldn't buy calls in tech unless I see

Qqq push above 362 or Qqq back test 360 and bounce.

If tech can't push higher, neither will the spy.

Spy has gap to close at 432.22...
Same scenario as QQQ, I'd like to see a

back test of 430 and hold before I go long..

So yeah, a short scalp may be the play very early but I wouldn't over stay.. if QQQ breaks over 362, this market will push.


Vix

Downtrend formed in white channel here after correcting from a rising wedge.
16.50 is over head resistance.
15.80 is 21ema support.
We should test that 21ema support today and market will react to either the bounce or flush.


The best long I see is Amzn
Look for a back test of 127.00 If that holds
130c
10/6
126 stop loss

The best short I see is Googl
Wait for 133.69 gap close
Short back to 132.00
Choose the Exp and strike you are comfortable with..


1

تعليق:

Vix bounced off 21ema first test
Will need to break below 15.80 for market to go higher

تعليق:

Vix 15 min
Headed back to 16.50
From there we'll see

Dow rejected off its daily 200sma

تعليق:

Healthcare and energy weak. Banks are flat..
Tech is shouldering but tech not pushing higher.. QQQ 360 needs to hold or this all goes red.

Just keep a tight stop

تعليق:

I'm done for today.. Traded googl puts 3x ..

I'll be back later

Literally 6 stocks are keeping this green

Aapl
Msft
Nvda
Tsla
Amzn
Meta

Looks like another technical bounce....

Government shutdown still looms..
Maybe they save the gap close for that.. but I wouldn't swing my dollars on it

تعليق:

Qqq 15min chart.

Channel here..
This morning we rejected off the top..
Currently we are sitting on support.
Break below 359.00 and 357.00 next up..


Hold support and the next stop maybe gap close.. of course not today..

Vix will need to break 15.80 also

تعليق:

Vix 15min.. broke out of the wedge and is retesting support.
Possible inverted H&S forming

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XLC 15min chart.. bearish rising Wedge.

Meta/Googl

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XLK
Rejected at resistance..
Headed back to 160
Msft/aapl

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Last one qqq 15min..

Possible bounce back to 359 for a right shoulder ..
I'd wait for a break below 356 to reshort or retest of 360.. not swinging anything.

Enjoy your weekend ✌

تعليق:

Higher lows across the board.

Qqq 2hour..
Looks like a diamond bottom pattern formed.
.if you're unfamiliar with a diamond bottom pattern pls use googl.