SPY: We are only at the beginning of a recession

According to the SMA's on the monthly chart, we are heading into a recession, however, we are only at the beginning. We are at least 2 months away from a complete breakdown into equities. As you can see in the chart, the blue arrows show where we would align compared to the '01 and '08 recessions. I am still anticipating a drop below the 50 SMA which will confirm my thesis. A current confirmation is the direction change in the 20 SMA. Each time we see a significant downturn in the 20 SMA on the monthly it is a precursor to recession. I'm expecting the worst of the selling to come later in the year, but in the meantime I see a slow trickle down below the 50 SMA to the 2.618 fib extension (341). Two possible scenarios exist for the long term: 1) If the selling is moderately slow like in '01 we can expect the final target of the SPY to be the 4.618 fib extension (250) and 2) if the selling increases pace, we can expect a significant/steep drop but a shallower target to the 3.618 fib extension of 296.