SPY- Bounce, Found. Top, Searching.
So we got the bounce we were looking for, right in the 230 area that I had been talking about. So far so good. Let's see if we can get an idea as to where this market will top out for its final exhaustive push-up. Where would be an area where many people who got caught would love to take the loss for the peace of mind of not being in this market? Where will the bots be programmed to scale in the shorts? What areas have recently been important catalyst levels?
I will throw out my target area even though there is no way to know exactly where price will reverse. I'm going with 251-252.
I will be watching our horizontal support closely at 249 to see if we have the steam to break through. If we manage to make it above that level then my target will be the next stop.
I like the confluence that it has:
1. Horizontal at the lows of the one year consolidation period.
2. Fibonacci .382 retracement level
3. 21 Exp Moving Average (which is projected with my orange dotted line)
4. Fed news breakdown area *When rates hiked, we broke this support that day)
We obviously could top out at any given point from where we are right now or all the way up to 263 but the area I will be watching most closely is the 251-252 confluence. We will see if we make it there. These sorts of things are extremely hard to predict, so I like to put weight on price action and volume as we approach critical areas. Looking for a spike in green volume as the price is going up sharply to put in a top. I will also be watching for smaller timeframe bearish divergence as we progress upward.
I will throw out my target area even though there is no way to know exactly where price will reverse. I'm going with 251-252.
I will be watching our horizontal support closely at 249 to see if we have the steam to break through. If we manage to make it above that level then my target will be the next stop.
I like the confluence that it has:
1. Horizontal at the lows of the one year consolidation period.
2. Fibonacci .382 retracement level
3. 21 Exp Moving Average (which is projected with my orange dotted line)
4. Fed news breakdown area *When rates hiked, we broke this support that day)
We obviously could top out at any given point from where we are right now or all the way up to 263 but the area I will be watching most closely is the 251-252 confluence. We will see if we make it there. These sorts of things are extremely hard to predict, so I like to put weight on price action and volume as we approach critical areas. Looking for a spike in green volume as the price is going up sharply to put in a top. I will also be watching for smaller timeframe bearish divergence as we progress upward.
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