TAN solar ETF: an M-pattern in the making

3 different scenarios for TAN:
1) It will make a double bottom at current level of 70 (also around ma100 Weekly
2) It will fall more & institutional buyers will appear start accumulating at ma200 area w/c is around 60.
3)There will will a fake-out below ma200 stopping at 50 support zone with positive divergence.
BTW, 60 is my best bet because:
1) the 60 zone happens to be near ma200 Weekly
2) It is a 0.854 FIBONACCI retracement, the last chance to reverse.
3) it is the 61.8% FIBO retracement from the start of M-pattern at 21 to the peak at 126
With any scenario, wave 3 have to continue coz solar will be bullish in 2022.
This is not financial advice. Pls also do & share your analysis. It may help other beginners like me.