#Yield is moving well today.
1Yr is bouncing back better than 2 and 10Yr.
$TNX is not bouncing as much but has not sold off as much as the others. The 10Yr is trading between 3.80 - 4.08.
Did we see the top in short term #yields a few days ago?
10Yr on the other hand did not break the most recent high. Interesting to say the least.
The last picture shows the highs of the 2 yr and 10 yr right before the crash of 2008.
Interesting that almost everything happened in the month of June. Even when it was 3 different years! Hmmm.
***
Now let's compare what yields did around the 2008 crash.
***
The 2yr yield peaked @ 5.28% and it did it much earlier. It was almost 2 years before the 10Yr yield did. The 2yr also formed a lower higher in 2007 (5.13%) & peaked in June 2008, much lower @ 3%, before the real crash happened.
The 10yr didn't peak until June 2008. way after short term rates peaked. We also see that the peak was around 4.3%.
Stocks peaked in Oct 07 and the lower high was May 2008.
***
We are seeing something similar today. However, IMO everything happens faster today. We're keeping a close eye on lower highs in short term yields and we could be seeing this now. Time will tell.
This data is just like other data. Just past info to help weather the current & future storms.
1Yr is bouncing back better than 2 and 10Yr.
$TNX is not bouncing as much but has not sold off as much as the others. The 10Yr is trading between 3.80 - 4.08.
Did we see the top in short term #yields a few days ago?
10Yr on the other hand did not break the most recent high. Interesting to say the least.
The last picture shows the highs of the 2 yr and 10 yr right before the crash of 2008.
Interesting that almost everything happened in the month of June. Even when it was 3 different years! Hmmm.
***
Now let's compare what yields did around the 2008 crash.
***
The 2yr yield peaked @ 5.28% and it did it much earlier. It was almost 2 years before the 10Yr yield did. The 2yr also formed a lower higher in 2007 (5.13%) & peaked in June 2008, much lower @ 3%, before the real crash happened.
The 10yr didn't peak until June 2008. way after short term rates peaked. We also see that the peak was around 4.3%.
Stocks peaked in Oct 07 and the lower high was May 2008.
***
We are seeing something similar today. However, IMO everything happens faster today. We're keeping a close eye on lower highs in short term yields and we could be seeing this now. Time will tell.
This data is just like other data. Just past info to help weather the current & future storms.
تعليق:
Yields have been pumping again, posted an update on #yields.
