Macro - Reading The Curve
Forecast for Macro:
- Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested.
- Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations:
- 2x ATR spike in US02Y:
- The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y.
- Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish:
- However, this will be followed by a steepener, respecting the Falling Wedge Breakout, as the Fed implements monetary policies to control Deflation, creating a Stagflation environment.
- US30Y, this is bearish and deflationary:
- USOIL, deflationary. The US economy depends on Oil:
- US Manufacturing Employment Index, looks to be at the top of the range, and on a decline:
- Capital goods are the heart of every economy. Without manufacturing employment, no capital goods. No capital goods, no innovation.
- CN30Y, also bearish and deflationary:
- China's Credit Impulse, and consequently - global credit impulse turns negative.
- No more credit flows means no more liquidity to flow into risk assets.
- M2V declining, if the economy was booming and growing, money velocity should be increasing:
- Business destruction cannot be inflationary. Thriving tech businesses lead the recovery, but Tech is inherently deflationary.
- Reading the curve will be critical to see the macro turns coming!
GLHF
- DPT
- Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested.
- Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations:
- 2x ATR spike in US02Y:
- The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y.
- Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish:
- However, this will be followed by a steepener, respecting the Falling Wedge Breakout, as the Fed implements monetary policies to control Deflation, creating a Stagflation environment.
- US30Y, this is bearish and deflationary:
- USOIL, deflationary. The US economy depends on Oil:
- US Manufacturing Employment Index, looks to be at the top of the range, and on a decline:
- Capital goods are the heart of every economy. Without manufacturing employment, no capital goods. No capital goods, no innovation.
- CN30Y, also bearish and deflationary:
- China's Credit Impulse, and consequently - global credit impulse turns negative.
- No more credit flows means no more liquidity to flow into risk assets.
- M2V declining, if the economy was booming and growing, money velocity should be increasing:
- Business destruction cannot be inflationary. Thriving tech businesses lead the recovery, but Tech is inherently deflationary.
- Reading the curve will be critical to see the macro turns coming!
GLHF
- DPT
تم فتح الصفقة
I said it will drop to 0.2-0.3, watching for continued decline: 
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.