US 10YR: Will Fall to Record Lows in 2020 Before Rising in 2022
The recent rising wedge we saw since the bottom in around September has broken down and will continue to break-down as we move through mid 2020. In the shorter-term, yields will fall faster than people think. In my opinion, US data has certainly not "bottomed" yet and will continue to weaken enough to provide further rate cuts in 2020 despite what the Fed 'wants'.
Domestic manufacturing continues to be dreadful in the US.
The combination of geopolitical issues involving the US, weaker/weakening domestic US data and a weak DXY in 2020 will send the 10 year to at-least 1.464 re-test, a reasonable potential of testing 1.375 and likely could challenge 1.200. In fact, one cannot rule the possibly of a 10 year around 1.000 by late 2020 or sometime in 2021.
I do not forecast a stock market 'crash' as a result of a recession until at-least mid to late 2021 (but likely closer to, or in 2022), and as such, yields could continue to weaken tremendously until 2022. Once the recession hits, the bubble for the bond market will burst and people will lose total faith in governmental treasuries (hence, yields rising).
As I have stated for 6 months, look for big moves in oil and precious metals this year again, but look for parabolic moves sometime in 2021 into 2022 and beyond. You have already started to see this, and therefore, my predictions have been correct.
- zSplit
Domestic manufacturing continues to be dreadful in the US.
The combination of geopolitical issues involving the US, weaker/weakening domestic US data and a weak DXY in 2020 will send the 10 year to at-least 1.464 re-test, a reasonable potential of testing 1.375 and likely could challenge 1.200. In fact, one cannot rule the possibly of a 10 year around 1.000 by late 2020 or sometime in 2021.
I do not forecast a stock market 'crash' as a result of a recession until at-least mid to late 2021 (but likely closer to, or in 2022), and as such, yields could continue to weaken tremendously until 2022. Once the recession hits, the bubble for the bond market will burst and people will lose total faith in governmental treasuries (hence, yields rising).
As I have stated for 6 months, look for big moves in oil and precious metals this year again, but look for parabolic moves sometime in 2021 into 2022 and beyond. You have already started to see this, and therefore, my predictions have been correct.
- zSplit
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