US30 Bulls Taking Control?!

١٩ يناير

Weekly Timeframe Analysis

Price Action:
• The weekly timeframe remains in a large uptrend, supported by sloping EMAs. Despite a recent fall, this structure remains intact as prices bounced sharply at 42,000, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the leg starting on September 9th.
• Importantly, this bounce reclaimed the 20 SMA after dipping below, showing resilience and strength in the trend. Prices remain in the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, a bullish signal.

Trendlines:
• A large lower trendline dating back to October 2023 has held firmly during this fall, reinforcing its significance as a structural support. Higher trendlines are less clear, signaling a potential weakening in momentum on rallies.

Indicators:
• RSI at 57: Above midline but not overbought, showing moderate bullish momentum.
• MACD bearish, histogram waning: Suggests that downward momentum is losing strength, a typical precursor to reversal or consolidation.
• ADX at 19.65: Indicates a lack of strong trend currently, though negative DMI dominance shows residual bearishness.
• Accumulation Distribution Line (ADL): Despite a wick below the 13 EMA, it closed above, with the 13 EMA > 48 SMA, suggesting underlying buying interest.

Daily Timeframe Analysis

Price Action:
• After a long-term rise inside a parallel channel since August, prices broke below this structure on December 16th during the fall.
• The bounce at 42,000 coincided with a daily order block, signaling the level’s importance. This bounce aligns with weekly trendline support and suggests a higher low may be forming, further confirmed by price action breaking back above 20, 50, and 100 EMAs during the recovery.

Fibonacci Levels:
• The daily retracement from the recent fall touched just above the 100% retracement level, showing a deep retracement pattern typical of a sharp corrective phase. Current price action hovers near the 0.5 Fibonacci extension level, facing light resistance.

Indicators:
• RSI at 54: Regained strength above 50, signaling mild bullish momentum.
• MACD green and increasing: While both signal and MACD lines are below zero, the histogram growth reflects recovering momentum.
• CMF at 0.08: Positive, indicating money flow into the asset.
• ADX at 25.78, falling: The lack of strong trend during this bounce indicates it may be corrective unless the momentum picks up.
• ADL dynamics: The ADL line sits above the 13 EMA but below the 48 SMA, reflecting moderate buying pressure without dominance.

Order Blocks:
• Significance: The bounce off the 42,000 daily order block confirms it as a key support level, and prices are now in a second daily order block near 43,500. These zones are critical for observing further price action.

4-Hour Timeframe Analysis

Price Action:
• During the fall, a falling wedge structure dominated, with lower highs and lower lows forming within the descending trendline. This bearish structure broke cleanly, signaling a potential shift to bullish momentum.
• Prices have now moved to 1.23 retracement of the previous high, confirming bullish structure with a break of prior highs. However, a pullback to test support, either at the lower end of the daily order block or trendline, is likely before continuation.

Indicators:
• RSI at 69.97: Near overbought, reflecting strong short-term momentum.
• MACD green but waning: Suggests the upward move may be slowing.
• CMF at 0.21: Strong accumulation, validating the breakout.
• ADX at 32: A rising trend with positive DMI dominance, indicating this move is supported by strength but not yet exhausted.

Volume Profile:
• The POC at 42,410 is a key magnet if prices retrace, with a high-volume node between 42,200 and 43,000, providing structural support for a potential retest.

Custom Indicators

Weekly:
• The first green candle print post-fall indicates renewed strength. The close above the 50 SMA supports the uptrend narrative, making this print significant in confirming higher timeframe bullish momentum.

Daily:
• After a prolonged absence of green candles during the fall, a single green candle print two days ago signals recovery. However, the lack of consecutive green candles tempers the bullish case and calls for caution.

Key Insights
1. Weekly Trend Support: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and major trendline at 42,000 align perfectly, making this level critical for sustaining the larger uptrend.
2. Daily Momentum Shift: Recovery of major EMAs (20, 50, 100) and a clean bounce from a daily order block signals that buyers are stepping in at higher levels.
3. Bullish Breakout on 4-Hour: The break of bearish structure is confirmed by strong indicators (RSI, CMF, ADX). However, overbought RSI suggests a pullback may be imminent.
4. Volume Context: The POC at 42,410 and high-volume node below current prices make the 42,200 - 42,500 zone a critical area for buyers to defend on a pullback.
5. Custom Indicators Support Recovery: The green candle prints on the weekly and daily charts bolster the bullish case but highlight the need for sustained momentum.

١٩ يناير

ملاحظة

Our bias remains bullish, though we are reactive, not predictive. We are watching for a break through this daily order block near current levels, which could lead to a move towards a weekly resistance trendline at higher levels. If this unfolds, we may see a pullback to retest the order block, providing an excellent setup for continuation.

Using Fibonacci extensions, key levels to monitor for potential profit-taking are at 44,000, 45,000, and the weekly upper trendline at 45,600. These levels will guide us as price unfolds, but don’t worry—we’ll provide precise entries and exit points as they happen.