USDCAD bigger picture

For my previous post and short term trading strategy see below:

The level which gives support at the moment has been determined a while ago based on structure in the past. Now I like to see a reversal out of this zone to support my bigger picture analysis. The leg lower has the characteristic of an impulsive wave A and should therefore present another sell opportunity once wave B is complete. However we have to keep in mind that several corrective patterns are possible. Longer term I expect a test of at least 1.270

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تم فتح الصفقة:

تم فتح الصفقة:

We saw another extension lower for the USDCAD and I expect a move higher soon. We saw the first attempt to move higher. What I'm looking for in terms of confirmation is an impulse higher followed by a consolidation of lesser degree. An impulse should be strong and subdivided in 5 inner waves. The simplest approach to spot an impulse is to focus on the angle of the wave and whether or not it shows many overlaps. For those who are not sure about it have a look at my previous posts where I wrote impulse/consolidation in the chart, you will probably see it because a chart shows more than a thousand words when it comes to trading.

تعليق:

I was looking for a 3 wave pattern lower towards the high of 2009 in the 1.30 zone. However we might see this current bearish move targeting that zone. The plan is still the same, sell after minor consolidations towards this zone or in terms of a reversal wait for an impulse of lesser degree and buy after a consolidation.

updates will follow.

تعليق:

I received several question about the CAD pairs. It is extended and many indicators will show a likely reversal ahead. However I use an indicator as indication and nothing more, more often than not I don't use any indicator at all because the key data is in the chart itself. But this is dependent on how you trade of course. Nevertheless, we shouldn't be buying too soon. Nothing says the USDCAD can't turn bullish but structure and market dynamic tells me that we most likely need to test the high of 2009 first before this pair will be able to make a significant correction higher. If t turns bullish before we test that level, I simply wait for the consolidation and continuation so I won't get caught by another extension lower.

تعليق:

Watch for a consolidation and buy continuation towards 1.345. However if we see a reversal here we should be looking for a bearish impulse and sell after the consolidation. I still expect a test of the high of 2009 and a move towards 1.345 will not invalidate that scenario.