What are the odds we start a Flag pattern here

15min view of the Ad chart. I spotted an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern over a 6hr period from 3am-9am on 5/3/17. For this flag pattern to start and be true, I need to see the AD breakout of the Apex triangle and up through (P) Pivot Point. On watch . Disclosure I've been stalking $46.75 oil level and been scaling in on UWT dips