WTI - Tempted to buy? I'd wait a bit more
Weekly:
- Bearish trend and Ichimoku setup is intact.
- Heikin Ashi candles are red in a row, with still no upper wick on this week's candle. However we have some signals which make us tempted a bit to try a bottom fishing. The week is still long until Friday, so what do we have to watch? First of all Price has reached a possible resistance, while haDelta/SMA3 has some kind of positive divergence. Also haDelta/SMA3 makes a cross up. All together it looks like bears started to take more seriously this POSSIBLE resistance, and are reducing shorts a bit
However this doesn't mean that the 42,50-44,00 resistance will hold with a 100 % probability.
So we have to watch how the candle body may change until week end. If it gets shorter, the probability of resistance to hold will increase.
Daily:
- Firm and heavy bearish Ichimoku setup, all averages point steeply down. Kijun Sen started to drop sharply
- Heikin Ashi is interesting, as it gives a possible consolidation/reversal signal in form of a candle colour change. Be careful! This has happened 29/July, but the signal was short lived.
I also have a problem with Price/Tenkan Sen position. Price is still well below Tenkan (9 days average). I think we need to wait a bit more for a higher probability setup, before we rush into a buy.
4H:
- The above mentionned problem with Price/Tenkan on the daily reveals on the 4H chart too. Ichimoku setup is still bearish. Here you can also see 100 WMA and the Kumo is still well above Price. We need to have these averages lower, so we'd need some kind of sideaway Price movement in coming days, to get a high probability bullish counter signal later.
- First we need NO LOWER LOW on the 4H, so even if Price turns down from Kijun Sen now, should not close below 43,50. Then on the next spike, or Heikin Ashi buy signal we may enter 0,5 trade unit long, which we can increase later if Price breaks above Kumo and 100 WMA and enters a counter trend.
Advise:
- reduce shorts
- get ready for counter trend trade
- do not rush, life is very long (while market in Oil is probably short enough :-) )
- Controll your risk!
- Bearish trend and Ichimoku setup is intact.
- Heikin Ashi candles are red in a row, with still no upper wick on this week's candle. However we have some signals which make us tempted a bit to try a bottom fishing. The week is still long until Friday, so what do we have to watch? First of all Price has reached a possible resistance, while haDelta/SMA3 has some kind of positive divergence. Also haDelta/SMA3 makes a cross up. All together it looks like bears started to take more seriously this POSSIBLE resistance, and are reducing shorts a bit
However this doesn't mean that the 42,50-44,00 resistance will hold with a 100 % probability.
So we have to watch how the candle body may change until week end. If it gets shorter, the probability of resistance to hold will increase.
Daily:
- Firm and heavy bearish Ichimoku setup, all averages point steeply down. Kijun Sen started to drop sharply
- Heikin Ashi is interesting, as it gives a possible consolidation/reversal signal in form of a candle colour change. Be careful! This has happened 29/July, but the signal was short lived.
I also have a problem with Price/Tenkan Sen position. Price is still well below Tenkan (9 days average). I think we need to wait a bit more for a higher probability setup, before we rush into a buy.
4H:
- The above mentionned problem with Price/Tenkan on the daily reveals on the 4H chart too. Ichimoku setup is still bearish. Here you can also see 100 WMA and the Kumo is still well above Price. We need to have these averages lower, so we'd need some kind of sideaway Price movement in coming days, to get a high probability bullish counter signal later.
- First we need NO LOWER LOW on the 4H, so even if Price turns down from Kijun Sen now, should not close below 43,50. Then on the next spike, or Heikin Ashi buy signal we may enter 0,5 trade unit long, which we can increase later if Price breaks above Kumo and 100 WMA and enters a counter trend.
Advise:
- reduce shorts
- get ready for counter trend trade
- do not rush, life is very long (while market in Oil is probably short enough :-) )
- Controll your risk!
