Update on Oil shorts
تم تحديثه
Leg - A of a correction appears finished. -ve Momentum on 15 min frame is not sufficient to warrant an extension in this correction.
I therefore expect to see a Leg-B to the $41.60 region, followed by an extended grand "C" in A-B-C formation to my desired targets <$36-$34>
OR possible still to see a muted "C" after the coming "B" into the $41.60, then an "X" and finally a grand "C".
I will not use the <$41.60-$41.00> to assimilate any more risk, as it is my intent as a position trader to hold and protect a reasonable size to <$36-$34>. Nor will I add more shorts, as the position's holdings have accumulated enough risk as they stand.
It is possible however, for fresh shorts to begin an accumulation phase <$41.20-$41.60> for half or 1/3 of a contract, keeping in mind that there is still NO 60 min bear motive momentum to support a bear drive, so they would have to hold their shorts between <36-48>hrs for the short position to accelerate.
Take Care & Trade Safe
I therefore expect to see a Leg-B to the $41.60 region, followed by an extended grand "C" in A-B-C formation to my desired targets <$36-$34>
OR possible still to see a muted "C" after the coming "B" into the $41.60, then an "X" and finally a grand "C".
I will not use the <$41.60-$41.00> to assimilate any more risk, as it is my intent as a position trader to hold and protect a reasonable size to <$36-$34>. Nor will I add more shorts, as the position's holdings have accumulated enough risk as they stand.
It is possible however, for fresh shorts to begin an accumulation phase <$41.20-$41.60> for half or 1/3 of a contract, keeping in mind that there is still NO 60 min bear motive momentum to support a bear drive, so they would have to hold their shorts between <36-48>hrs for the short position to accelerate.
Take Care & Trade Safe
تعليق
I am planning to improve my short portfolio as follows:-In case there is a spike in prices (wave-4)Sll 10k @ 38.80
Sell 10k @ $39.30
Sell 10k @ $39.60
In case there is a spike in prices (wave-4)
Sell 10k @ 40.30
Sell 10k @ 40.50
Already holding 0.8 contract short averaging $37.52.
If above positions fill, size increases to 1.3 / standard contract, averaging $39.
Risk at $41 becomes -$2600 = -26% on a $10,000 account. Target same @ $35.60
Take care & Stay Safe
تم فتح الصفقة
shorts at $38.80 & $39.30 filledPosition average raised to $37.826 for a 1 complete standard contract
Tps remain the same $35.60/$34.80. Risk calculations same.
keep remaining sell limit orders in place, but amend 10k @ $40.50 to become $40.40
Take Care & Stay Safe
تم فتح الصفقة
Holding 1 standard contract short averaging $37.826Add Short Limits as follows
10k@ 39.90
10k@ 39.80
10k@ 39.70
10k@ 39.60
If filled position average becomes $38.37 for 1.4 standard contract- Risk at $40 is -23% (-$2300). Risk @ 440.50 = -30% (-$2982)
Target same @ $32.50
Take care & stay safe.
تم فتح الصفقة
<$39.60-$39.80> filled, to a contract size = 1.3 averaging $38.25Remove 10k short entry @ $39.90
Risk assessment remains as outlined above. Target remains @ $32.50
Correction:-
"440.50" above should read "40.50" Sorry for the Typo
Take care & Stay Safe
تم فتح الصفقة
The position has reached risk @ $40.50 = -30% for 1.3 contract size on a $10,000 account. So I will work to assimilate 1/3 of the risk.Place Tp for short holdings $39.60-$39.70-$39.80 @ $39.20
Place Tp for 1 x 10k short acquired at $37.826 also at $39.20
$39.20 is y'day's low, and the lower 1HR BB.
If filled contract size gets reduced to 0.9 at 37.826 average.
Risk @ $40 becomes -$1962 = ~20% on 10,000 account
Targets for 0.9 contract remains the same @ $32.50
Take Care & Stay Safe.
تم فتح الصفقة
There is a Bear Motive on the 1HR chart now doing a wave-3Remove TPs @ $39.20
Holding 1.3 contract shorts averaging $37.826 targeting $32.50
Add Short limits @
10k @ $40.10
10k @ $39.90
All to same target $32.50
Take care & Stay Safe
تم فتح الصفقة
10k @ $39.90 filled to an overall average $37.97 for 1.4 contract size.take the 10k @ $40.10 limit short down to $39.25
TP for all remains @ $32.50
Take Care & Stay Safe.
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