Oil has already put in a massive move this year and after failing to reach my pivot point at 87.69, I expect for some exhaustion to set in after such a quick move higher. My initial target is set to the pivot at 84.61 offering a solid 2:1 with stops at the high. However this market could really find range here and preform a seasonal down-move all the way to 81.51 which I have marked for reference. Any lower than that and we enter a full on bear territory with paper barrel unwind. To the topside, 89.82 and 91.52 are two targets if demand continues and world war concerns heighten. These are also good prices to consider for summer time demand, though we may have already seen it priced in with such a vicious initiative. Though commodities are steadily trending up, I find it likely for oil to respect the pivot and continue to downside after showing some exhaustion Wednesday and Thursday. In the long term I wouldn’t be surprised if we revisit my lower levels of 75.61 and 74.41. It is really a matter of interest as it relates to 81.51. A tip is to watch for string down moves through weak support as it will further give confluence to sells, and give the potential to market in for more shorts.