Gold still in Wave 5 down?

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I originally treated 3rd July as the end of a 5 wave down for Gold -0.47% . Based on stochastics crossing on 3rd, I went long on 4th July at 1255 but on 10th July got out at 1258 for small chicken feed profit as my anticipated upward Wave 1 target of 1265 by 10th (time fib) did not eventuate.

I am now surprised that Gold -0.47% has fallen through my original wave 5 point. Could it be that we are still in wave 5?

I have drawn a pitchfork and here is where I anticipate Gold -0.47% going before moving back up (around 18th at 1229 or around 25th at 1221) based on Fibonacci retracement & extension levels. It could be that Wave 5 has not yet completed. At the end of this corrective wave to complete wave 5, I will go LONG on Gold -0.47% .

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ملاحظة

Gold has overshot my floor and is continuing the corrective wave down. There is still a way to go looking at the slope of the stochastic line. I have updated my target area for entry to the next fib extension levels.

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ملاحظة

I may have misread the 5 wave pattern. The old one is in grey. I noticed that wave 4 is actually a bit "contrived" in that it's quite flat. I have re-drawn what i think in yellow.



After redrawing the wave points & re-applying fib extensions, projections and retracements, I now find myself thinking that Gold could go as low as 1200!!! My daily trading rules won't allow me to short as the daily stochastics are oversold.

Looking at the hourly chart, if I get confirmation of a wave 3 down, then I will go short on the hourly and ride that down to 1200.

I cannot believe Gold will go down to 1200 due to the fundamentals supporting Gold such as QE in Europe & Japan, inflationary pressures from trade wars... but since when was the market rational? That's why we are pattern traders, since we realised that there is a component of irrational sentiment controlling the market.

I'm only reading what the tea-leaves are saying, and contrary to my personal beliefs this bear might still have a way to go!