How to use HIGH IMPACT NEWS as a confluence!
تم تحديثه
During deflation investors prioritize investment-grade bonds, defensive stocks (those of consumer goods companies), dividend-paying stocks, and cash.
Current asset flows, including the slide in oil indicates this regime allocation is in play (see attached image - below)
In terms of XAU:
- It has already been repriced higher after less-hawkish comments from Powell. The new rate of change (lower) can now be established for the overall down trend
- Going into DEFLATION, your gold is likely to be “deflate” in price because the logic is: hard times cause people to sell their assets (gold, silver etc.) to make ends meet
- There is a greater incentive for people who understand what's happening (like us!) to shot XAU at these higher prices or get in cash/bonds in order to buy the dip in equities down the road once Fed policy actually hints towards loosening.
The current narrative around interest rates is “higher for longer” = still no signal they will stop hiking which = it's still valid to look for shorts on XAU and stocks
Current asset flows, including the slide in oil indicates this regime allocation is in play (see attached image - below)
In terms of XAU:
- It has already been repriced higher after less-hawkish comments from Powell. The new rate of change (lower) can now be established for the overall down trend
- Going into DEFLATION, your gold is likely to be “deflate” in price because the logic is: hard times cause people to sell their assets (gold, silver etc.) to make ends meet
- There is a greater incentive for people who understand what's happening (like us!) to shot XAU at these higher prices or get in cash/bonds in order to buy the dip in equities down the road once Fed policy actually hints towards loosening.
The current narrative around interest rates is “higher for longer” = still no signal they will stop hiking which = it's still valid to look for shorts on XAU and stocks
ملاحظة
I could be dead wrong with what I'm about to say but trying to take a short even at 1800 doesn't match up with the rate hike next week. Tomorrow's JOBS # is the final piece of the puzzle; we'll know what's going on once the dust settles.
But if the criteria (see image) is met, I'm definitely interested in going long into next Wednesday (FOMC).
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How I'm making sense of today:Jobs data is really just going sideways ... key take away is that the job market is not worsening which marginally increases the odds of a 50bp hike in February
Next Thursday's jobs data is now the focus... I still think we could rally into Wednesday (FOMC) before the larger selloff begins
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Based on fundamental developments (see attached image), I'm expecting price to continue rallying into next Wednesday (FOMC)ملاحظة
Short idea proved to be valid on the back of inflation print, which I believe is not that relevant. The Fed is focused on Jobs more than CPI, PPI etc. If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over.
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Potential trade idea for tomorrow (the key is Powell's press conference)NOTE: If tomorrow is a surprise 25bp hike or if Powell is excessively dovish this trade is invalid as XAU will likely shoot higher on the back of these developments.
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The market is waiting for tomorrow’s Jobs data to make its move. Possible trade setups for tomorrow:ملاحظة
Nice move overnight. As long as jobs come in within expectations I'll be looking to add more shortsملاحظة
ECB and the Fed are worried about services inflation - especially after initial claims were WAY lower than expected; forcing them to remain HawkishWhich means lower XAU price to come
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This trade should ideally be a TUESDAY event based on fundamentals; if the data comes out a particular way the trade will be less valid.ملاحظة
as long as price doesn't melt overnight, we should be good to go for tomorrow's short 
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