North Korea fired rockets over Japan!
Well, while this fuels short-term immediate reactions, as seen on chart, within the same day, the market has reached the conclusion at a point in time, that sum of all "forces" in the world are unchanged after the fact of the missile since price came back to the initial starting point.
This is a prime example how news perhaps can be traded in the very short term to exploit short term momentum, but have very little impact on the price path of assets over the longer term.
If rockets fired over Japan really mattered, price wouldn't go back to the initial starting point if it meant significant change on a longer term basis.
Yet, people still try to trade on news. Another example; Hurricane "Harvey" which should be "bullish for oil" (argument being putting away supply and reducing glut) hasn't done anything else than slaughter price of oil.
My perspective: Trend as laid down by the cycles are what drives prices, while news create the shorter term fluctuations in sentiment etc and that price is nothing more but some geometry. And in our absence of understanding price behaviour, we seek explainations in the things we can relate to: News.
Yet it is difficult to prove. Because you can always come with the argument: "Other news matter and pulls price in the other direction".
And that is what makes the market. Different views.
Well, while this fuels short-term immediate reactions, as seen on chart, within the same day, the market has reached the conclusion at a point in time, that sum of all "forces" in the world are unchanged after the fact of the missile since price came back to the initial starting point.
This is a prime example how news perhaps can be traded in the very short term to exploit short term momentum, but have very little impact on the price path of assets over the longer term.
If rockets fired over Japan really mattered, price wouldn't go back to the initial starting point if it meant significant change on a longer term basis.
Yet, people still try to trade on news. Another example; Hurricane "Harvey" which should be "bullish for oil" (argument being putting away supply and reducing glut) hasn't done anything else than slaughter price of oil.
My perspective: Trend as laid down by the cycles are what drives prices, while news create the shorter term fluctuations in sentiment etc and that price is nothing more but some geometry. And in our absence of understanding price behaviour, we seek explainations in the things we can relate to: News.
Yet it is difficult to prove. Because you can always come with the argument: "Other news matter and pulls price in the other direction".
And that is what makes the market. Different views.
تعليق:
And today.. Back again above the rocket-line. Seems the rocket was fired after all! But wait, it needed to "back-test" the breakout of 1300 (in case it didnt work).