XAU/USD - Elliot's Wave Analysis - March 2024 - Short, then Long
This post will go over 3 wave degrees for OANDA:XAUUSD.
Primary (4h)
Intermediate (1h)
Minor (30 mins)
Primary Degree:
Wave 1 came to an end just below the December 2023 high of 2088, meaning we are likely entering a wave 2 of a 5 wave impulse. This can be seen on the image below where:
The diagonal trendline links the high of 2148 till the high of March 1st 2024 at 2088.36.
The horizontal trendline linking the high of December 2023 at 2088.58 and the high of march 1st at 2088.38.
Intermediate Degree:
The wave 1 of the primary degree was a zigzag forming an A,B,C. I tried fitting an impulse sequence but an A,B,C respected the rules and guidelines more than a 5 wave did.
Wave A is an impulse from the start at around 1984 to the end of the 5th at 2041. Wave B is a 3 wave flat corrective and wave C is an impulse with an extended 5th. These can all be seen on the Minor degree (see last section of post).
Minor Degree:
As mentioned in my previous post, The wave 1 of the primary degree was a zigzag forming an A,B,C. Wave A is an impulse from the start at around 1984 to the end of the 5th at 2041. Wave B is a 3 wave flat corrective and wave C is an impulse with an extended 5th.
When breaking down wave A, we can establish a clear 5 wave sequence where wave 4 is an expanding triangle leading to a last push (wave 5). The expanding triangle can be seen as A,B,C,D,E and all respect the rules and guidelines of the wave principle.
Wave B and wave C form a 5 wave impulse where Wave B is a flat and a double correction on the smaller degree, hence why the markings of W, X, Y. The end of the flat (Wave B) is also the end of Wave 2. Wave C, on the smaller degree (Minute, 15 min) forms a 5 wave sequence. This can be seen from the end of Wave 2 and the start of Wave 3 on the Minor degree. The Minor degree's 5th wave is extended, rejecting the high, ending the current Minor 5th wave and Intermediate C wave. the image below should allow for clear visualization.
When placing the Fibonacci retracement on the wave 1 of the Primary degree, the most likely retracement point is between, the now support of the monthly trend line going back to 2080 in Dec 2023 till it's break on feb 29th at 2048, and the 0.618 fibonacci level at around 2048.9. The Fibonacci retracement levels can be seen on the second image below this text.
In conclusion, the most likely outcome is for a 5 wave sequence on the Intermediate degree and Minor degree to be our Primary degree Wave 2.
I have placed a short till 2043.95 due to the possibility of the retracement to reject the diagonal trendline a bit below the 0.618 level. I will then Long the 3rd wave till the current ATH, if this 3rd is extended, the next target should be at the most, 2190. Otherwise we will see wave 5 reach near this level on the Primary degree.
Primary (4h)
Intermediate (1h)
Minor (30 mins)
Primary Degree:
Wave 1 came to an end just below the December 2023 high of 2088, meaning we are likely entering a wave 2 of a 5 wave impulse. This can be seen on the image below where:
The diagonal trendline links the high of 2148 till the high of March 1st 2024 at 2088.36.
The horizontal trendline linking the high of December 2023 at 2088.58 and the high of march 1st at 2088.38.
Intermediate Degree:
The wave 1 of the primary degree was a zigzag forming an A,B,C. I tried fitting an impulse sequence but an A,B,C respected the rules and guidelines more than a 5 wave did.
Wave A is an impulse from the start at around 1984 to the end of the 5th at 2041. Wave B is a 3 wave flat corrective and wave C is an impulse with an extended 5th. These can all be seen on the Minor degree (see last section of post).
Minor Degree:
As mentioned in my previous post, The wave 1 of the primary degree was a zigzag forming an A,B,C. Wave A is an impulse from the start at around 1984 to the end of the 5th at 2041. Wave B is a 3 wave flat corrective and wave C is an impulse with an extended 5th.
When breaking down wave A, we can establish a clear 5 wave sequence where wave 4 is an expanding triangle leading to a last push (wave 5). The expanding triangle can be seen as A,B,C,D,E and all respect the rules and guidelines of the wave principle.
Wave B and wave C form a 5 wave impulse where Wave B is a flat and a double correction on the smaller degree, hence why the markings of W, X, Y. The end of the flat (Wave B) is also the end of Wave 2. Wave C, on the smaller degree (Minute, 15 min) forms a 5 wave sequence. This can be seen from the end of Wave 2 and the start of Wave 3 on the Minor degree. The Minor degree's 5th wave is extended, rejecting the high, ending the current Minor 5th wave and Intermediate C wave. the image below should allow for clear visualization.
When placing the Fibonacci retracement on the wave 1 of the Primary degree, the most likely retracement point is between, the now support of the monthly trend line going back to 2080 in Dec 2023 till it's break on feb 29th at 2048, and the 0.618 fibonacci level at around 2048.9. The Fibonacci retracement levels can be seen on the second image below this text.
In conclusion, the most likely outcome is for a 5 wave sequence on the Intermediate degree and Minor degree to be our Primary degree Wave 2.
I have placed a short till 2043.95 due to the possibility of the retracement to reject the diagonal trendline a bit below the 0.618 level. I will then Long the 3rd wave till the current ATH, if this 3rd is extended, the next target should be at the most, 2190. Otherwise we will see wave 5 reach near this level on the Primary degree.
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