🟡 Hello Goldies,
Welcome to a defining week.
Gold opens the new chapter sitting deep in premium territory, pressed right against the ceiling of its bullish structure. Momentum remains strong, but location is becoming critical — this is where powerful trends decide whether to extend or correct.
Macro Pulse
A heavyweight week for the USD.
The Federal Reserve steps back into the spotlight with the Rate Decision, Economic Projections, and Powell’s conference, while unemployment data adds extra volatility to the mix. With no inflation release to balance sentiment, the Fed fully owns the narrative.
A dovish tone keeps gold floating near the highs.
A hawkish tone invites a pullback into weekly discount.
📍 Weekly Supply Zones
🟥 Premium Reaction Zone — 4310–4410
Where gold is currently battling.
Wicks, hesitation, and compression confirm active sell-side pressure.
Weekly decision begins here.
🟥 Upper Expansion Zone — 4550–4680
If buyers break first supply, momentum extends into this zone — historically a slowdown region.
🟥 Macro Expansion Zone — 4820–4970
Frontier territory. Entry here signals macro-level expansion and possible large-scale distribution.
📍 Weekly Demand Zones
🟦 First Support Base — 3820–3970
The most important discount area sustaining the rally.
🟦 Mid-Structure Support — 3450–3310
A clean accumulation base — valid weekly support.
🟦 Lower Support Range — 3000–2850
Deep correction if reached; not a trend reversal.
⚪ Decision Zone — 4120–4200
The weekly pivot.
Above it → bullish continuation holds.
Below it → correction opens toward First Support Base.
⭐ Technical Confluence
Price sits inside the 1.618 fib extension, a historical turning zone.
EMAs support strong uptrend yet show vertical overstretching.
RSI elevated → buyers must defend to avoid a unwind.
Clean SMC structure, but top compression reveals liquidity buildup.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
Holding above the Decision Zone + breaking 4310–4410 opens targets:
4550–4680
4820–4970 if expansion accelerates
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Rejection at premium + break below 4120–4200 exposes:
3820–3970
3450–3310 on deeper unwind
Daily Structure
Daily remains bullish with higher lows and supportive EMAs.
RSI elevated; candles compress against overhead supply.
Daily Decision Zone — 4180–4220 Controls this week’s flow.
Key Daily Levels
🟥 Supply
4320–4410 → first ceiling
4470–4550 → expansion
4620–4720 → extended rally
🟦 Demand
4060–4140 → first defense
3780–3870 → deeper corrective
3300–3500 → structural base
H4 Structure
Compression under supply, preparing for expansion.
H4 Decision Zone — 4200–4220 Breaker of bias.
🟥 4240–4280 → first reaction supply
🟦 4130–4170 → key support floor
H1 Structure
Classic coil setup — liquidity building above swing highs.
H1 Decision Zone — 4195–4205
Short-term pivot.
Weekly Outlook Summary
Gold sits at a major decision point:
Breakout above stacked supply = continuation into premium expansion targets
Rejection = clean retracement into discount
Trade Plan:
📍 Key Pivot: 4195–4220
Above = continuation
Below = retracement
📈 Bullish Path
Confirmation Required
Hold above 4195–4220 (Decision Zone)
Sweep liquidity above 4215 or 4260
BOS on M5/M15 + FVG / OB retest = entry trigger
🎯 Targets
4240–4280
4310–4350
4470–4550 if expansion accelerates
📉 Bearish Path
Reaction First
Rejection inside 4310–4410 (Premium Supply)
Liquidity sweep + M5/M15 CHoCH
Retest of Supply / FVG = entry trigger
🎯 Targets
4178–4190
4150–4160
4060–4140 deeper rotation
The structure is mapped.
Levels are defined.
The reaction will reveal direction.
Welcome to a defining week.
Gold opens the new chapter sitting deep in premium territory, pressed right against the ceiling of its bullish structure. Momentum remains strong, but location is becoming critical — this is where powerful trends decide whether to extend or correct.
Macro Pulse
A heavyweight week for the USD.
The Federal Reserve steps back into the spotlight with the Rate Decision, Economic Projections, and Powell’s conference, while unemployment data adds extra volatility to the mix. With no inflation release to balance sentiment, the Fed fully owns the narrative.
A dovish tone keeps gold floating near the highs.
A hawkish tone invites a pullback into weekly discount.
📍 Weekly Supply Zones
🟥 Premium Reaction Zone — 4310–4410
Where gold is currently battling.
Wicks, hesitation, and compression confirm active sell-side pressure.
Weekly decision begins here.
🟥 Upper Expansion Zone — 4550–4680
If buyers break first supply, momentum extends into this zone — historically a slowdown region.
🟥 Macro Expansion Zone — 4820–4970
Frontier territory. Entry here signals macro-level expansion and possible large-scale distribution.
📍 Weekly Demand Zones
🟦 First Support Base — 3820–3970
The most important discount area sustaining the rally.
🟦 Mid-Structure Support — 3450–3310
A clean accumulation base — valid weekly support.
🟦 Lower Support Range — 3000–2850
Deep correction if reached; not a trend reversal.
⚪ Decision Zone — 4120–4200
The weekly pivot.
Above it → bullish continuation holds.
Below it → correction opens toward First Support Base.
⭐ Technical Confluence
Price sits inside the 1.618 fib extension, a historical turning zone.
EMAs support strong uptrend yet show vertical overstretching.
RSI elevated → buyers must defend to avoid a unwind.
Clean SMC structure, but top compression reveals liquidity buildup.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
Holding above the Decision Zone + breaking 4310–4410 opens targets:
4550–4680
4820–4970 if expansion accelerates
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Rejection at premium + break below 4120–4200 exposes:
3820–3970
3450–3310 on deeper unwind
Daily Structure
Daily remains bullish with higher lows and supportive EMAs.
RSI elevated; candles compress against overhead supply.
Daily Decision Zone — 4180–4220 Controls this week’s flow.
Key Daily Levels
🟥 Supply
4320–4410 → first ceiling
4470–4550 → expansion
4620–4720 → extended rally
🟦 Demand
4060–4140 → first defense
3780–3870 → deeper corrective
3300–3500 → structural base
H4 Structure
Compression under supply, preparing for expansion.
H4 Decision Zone — 4200–4220 Breaker of bias.
🟥 4240–4280 → first reaction supply
🟦 4130–4170 → key support floor
H1 Structure
Classic coil setup — liquidity building above swing highs.
H1 Decision Zone — 4195–4205
Short-term pivot.
Weekly Outlook Summary
Gold sits at a major decision point:
Breakout above stacked supply = continuation into premium expansion targets
Rejection = clean retracement into discount
Trade Plan:
📍 Key Pivot: 4195–4220
Above = continuation
Below = retracement
📈 Bullish Path
Confirmation Required
Hold above 4195–4220 (Decision Zone)
Sweep liquidity above 4215 or 4260
BOS on M5/M15 + FVG / OB retest = entry trigger
🎯 Targets
4240–4280
4310–4350
4470–4550 if expansion accelerates
📉 Bearish Path
Reaction First
Rejection inside 4310–4410 (Premium Supply)
Liquidity sweep + M5/M15 CHoCH
Retest of Supply / FVG = entry trigger
🎯 Targets
4178–4190
4150–4160
4060–4140 deeper rotation
The structure is mapped.
Levels are defined.
The reaction will reveal direction.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.