NF data is coming in, GOLD remains stable with rising channel

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XAUUSD Continuing to maintain the recovery trend with a slight increase in the Asian trading session on October 4, gold is currently trading at 2,661 USD/oz, a slight increase equivalent to 0.21% on the day and about 5 USD as of today. the time the article was completed.
Investors will release the US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major volatility in the gold market.
US nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 140,000 in September.
The US non-farm payrolls report for September will be released, this is the most important data this week.
Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 140,000 in September, following a gain of 142,000 in August. US unemployment rate expected ​will remain unchanged at 4.2% in September.

In addition to changes in overall nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate, investors need to focus on average hourly earnings data, which can provide important signals about inflation. broadcast.

The average annual hourly wage increase in the United States in September is expected to be unchanged from 3.8% the previous month. Surveys show average hourly wages in the United States are expected to rise 0.3% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August.

The September non-farm payrolls report is the next important economic data in the US that could affect Fed policy. If non-farm data is stronger than expected, this could further weaken expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply in November, thereby pushing the dollar higher and creating pressure. for gold price.
Conversely, if non-farm employment data is lower than expected, this will be a positive signal for gold prices as it will boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply, and cause the currency to US Dollar weakens again.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still trading fairly stable with an uptrend after recovering from corrections and from the support area noted by readers in the previous issue at the lower edge of the price channel, confluence with horizontal support at 2,634USD.

In terms of structure, there are no changes compared to previous publications, still an uptrend highlighted by the price channel and weekly target level at 2,672USD.

Once the $2,672 level is broken above, gold will have room to continue rising a little further with a target then around $2,685.

As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension at $2,624, it still has a short-term technical bullish outlook. Notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690

→Take Profit 1 2689
↨
→Take Profit 2 2684

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615

→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631

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ملاحظة

- According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.50% has decreased to 34.6% from more than 57% last week. Market participants will monitor today's Nonfarm Payrolls release to further assess this possibility.
- XAUUSD recently consolidated in the 2.640-2.685 range

٤ أكتوبر

ملاحظة

Gold price increased to 2,670 USD/oz

Gold prices have dropped more than 300 pips to close to 2630 USD/oz due to the strong US employment report, gold prices have now recovered all the decline to 2670 USD/oz.

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ملاحظة

At the end of the trading session on October 4, the spot gold contract retreated 0.3% to 2,647.52 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz last week. Gold futures contracts lost 0.5% to 2,666.60 USD/oz.

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, further reducing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates by 0.5% at its November 6-7 policy meeting.

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ملاحظة

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ملاحظة

In the context of rising global debt and instability, gold remains the only asset that does not carry third-party risks and does not come with geopolitical risks. These are the two main reasons why major central banks continuously hoard gold.

The strong payroll report seems to have made investors certain of a cut of 25 basis points (0.25%) instead of 50 basis points. Prices have declined in the short term, but optimism remains for gold.

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ملاحظة

Goldman Sachs also maintains its forecast that the Fed will reduce interest rates gradually, with each reduction of 25bps, to bring interest rates to 3.25-3.5% by June 2025. They emphasized that there is no clear reason for job growth to slow given that employment is high and the US economy is still growing strongly.

٧ أكتوبر

ملاحظة

Gold prices fell more than 200 pips to below 2,640 USD/oz in the context that bets on the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps in November were almost eliminated. The USD consolidated last week's strong gains and put pressure on gold prices as investors are closely monitoring the geopolitical situation.

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ملاحظة

Gold's "pause" last week was mainly due to the strong increase in the USD, benefiting from safe-haven capital flows after Iran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel and the US jobs report exceeded expectations. on Friday, when 254,000 new jobs were created in September. Gold and the USD often have a negative correlation, meaning a stronger USD often puts downward pressure on gold prices and vice versa. However, despite the recent USD rally, gold still maintains its position.

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تم فتح الصفقة

Plan BUY + 65pips close a part move SL to entry.🔥

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ملاحظة

On the international market, the gold price today reached 2,609 USD/ounce, down 33 USD. The sudden decline in world gold prices is said to be due to overbought conditions. Although there may be room to increase in the near future, precious metals are "running out of buyers".