Gold weekly update 24-28.04
Gold is still contained by the bullish channel, but in my opinion it will continue to fall. Next week is the last week of the month, so we can expect some crazy price action.
On Friday, gold was heavily manipulated to the downside. I expect this manipulation to hold. The current target is the bottom of the channel where the 4H manipulation zone is.
Macroeconomic
Nothing interesting these days. There is no hot news to drive the market.
Some people are bearish because of speculation about further interest rate rises. Others are bullish, because of bank failures.
Top Down Analysis
My view is that gold will consolidate over the next few months. But it is too far from now, so we focus more on the current price action. 1945 is not only the 4H manipulation and the origin of the channel, but also the monthly, weekly and daily reaction area.
There is of course a chance that the price will continue to fall and form a larger channel. For now, price is expected to be supported by the previous weekly consolidation (grey area).
Trading from manipulation to manipulation I cannot suggest that gold will fall further. I do not know how the price will react to the manipulation at 1945. But I do know that there will be a good reaction.
Swing projection
Swing projection:
The indicator predicted a long term high, so we now expect a long term low.
Time:
I suggest that gold should go lower for at least another week, based on the time projection.
Gold have also entered a bearish seasonality.
Benchmark
The metals are going down. Palladium and Platinum are more bullish, but the correlation with Gold has never been stronger.
On the Indices chart, they appear to be forming a swing.
Gold is also falling against other currencies.
This chart gives us a very clear picture that gold prices are falling all over the world.
COT Reports
Professional traders are still bearish on gold and neutral on silver. They are confirming the decline for now.
Yields
It is not easy to suggest the direction. Yields are consolidating and are likely to do so, at least until the FED meeting next month.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is also falling, but it has made a perfect double top, which means that gold will rise again sooner or later.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is bearish, confirming the decline on Gold.
Volume Spread Analysis
Volume is confirming the bearish outlook.
Retail Support and Resistance
Gold is approaching a support, but I am not expecting to hold.
Momentum
Momentum is currently bearish.
The RSI still has room to fall before reaching the green zone.
On Friday, gold was heavily manipulated to the downside. I expect this manipulation to hold. The current target is the bottom of the channel where the 4H manipulation zone is.
Macroeconomic
Nothing interesting these days. There is no hot news to drive the market.
Some people are bearish because of speculation about further interest rate rises. Others are bullish, because of bank failures.
Top Down Analysis
My view is that gold will consolidate over the next few months. But it is too far from now, so we focus more on the current price action. 1945 is not only the 4H manipulation and the origin of the channel, but also the monthly, weekly and daily reaction area.
There is of course a chance that the price will continue to fall and form a larger channel. For now, price is expected to be supported by the previous weekly consolidation (grey area).
Trading from manipulation to manipulation I cannot suggest that gold will fall further. I do not know how the price will react to the manipulation at 1945. But I do know that there will be a good reaction.
Swing projection
Swing projection:
The indicator predicted a long term high, so we now expect a long term low.
Time:
I suggest that gold should go lower for at least another week, based on the time projection.
Gold have also entered a bearish seasonality.
Benchmark
The metals are going down. Palladium and Platinum are more bullish, but the correlation with Gold has never been stronger.
On the Indices chart, they appear to be forming a swing.
Gold is also falling against other currencies.
This chart gives us a very clear picture that gold prices are falling all over the world.
COT Reports
Professional traders are still bearish on gold and neutral on silver. They are confirming the decline for now.
Yields
It is not easy to suggest the direction. Yields are consolidating and are likely to do so, at least until the FED meeting next month.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is also falling, but it has made a perfect double top, which means that gold will rise again sooner or later.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is bearish, confirming the decline on Gold.
Volume Spread Analysis
Volume is confirming the bearish outlook.
Retail Support and Resistance
Gold is approaching a support, but I am not expecting to hold.
Momentum
Momentum is currently bearish.
The RSI still has room to fall before reaching the green zone.
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