Analysis of the latest gold trend on February 18:

قبل ٥ أيام

On Tuesday, senior representatives from the United States and Russia will hold a meeting to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This is the most talked about event of the day and is expected to trigger market movements. Developments surrounding negotiations between the Kremlin and Washington will be a major market driver. If the talks do not go smoothly, risk aversion may intensify, and gold prices may find new safe-haven demand and rise in tandem with the US dollar. On the other hand, further progress on a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war could help geopolitical tensions continue to ease, making it difficult for gold to build bullish momentum. Gold can act as a geopolitical hedge, an inflation hedge, and a hedge against the US dollar at the same time. It is the first two factors that have made gold such a strong investment over the past year, while buying by central banks and retail investors has also pushed up gold prices. The recent decline in the dollar has increased upward pressure on dollar-denominated gold, making it cheaper to buy gold in other currencies. This year, strong buying by central banks is expected to be a key factor driving gold demand as they seek to reduce their reliance on the dollar. Fundamentally, although the gold market faces some profit-taking pressure in the short term, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged. The Trump administration's tariff plans, inflation expectations, a weaker dollar and global trade tensions will continue to support gold's rising prospects. At the same time, weak US economic data and a sharp drop in retail sales may mean that the US economy faces some risk of slowing growth, as well as the Fed's policy uncertainty, which will further strengthen the market's demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Gold technical analysis:

From the technical perspective of gold, the trend of indicators and prices has been divergent in recent periods, suggesting that the trend may undergo a major turning point, but the downward trend has not been obvious so far. Yesterday, the price of gold was mainly volatile, recording a cross star K-line. After two failed upward attacks, the MACD indicator double lines began to send a dead cross reversal signal. The price stopped falling, suggesting that the lower support resistance is strong in the short term. It can be temporarily viewed as a volatile idea, and pay attention to the direction breakthrough after high-level consolidation. The short-term adjustment of gold is more of a technical correction. It is overbought and bullish sentiment is overheated. On the fundamentals, the expectations of Fed officials for interest rate cuts in 2025 are divergent, and inflation indicators continue to be paid attention to. From the daily line analysis, the daily moving average MACD high dead cross, but the first dead cross in the bull trend often forms a secondary buying point. The short-term moving average deviation value is too large, and the main waiting is for the moving average to move up. If the daily level long-short watershed near $2,880 is not broken, it will maintain high-level fluctuations, and the upper pressure is near $2,925. Taken together, in terms of gold's short-term operation today, our professional gold analyst team recommends going long by stepping back to lows, supplemented by shorting highs. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2925-2930 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term will focus on the 2895-2890 first-line support.

2.18 Gold Operation Strategy Reference:

Short Order Strategy:
Strategy 1: Short (Sell short) near 2925-2930 when gold rebounds, stop loss 6 points, target near 2900-2895, break to see 2890 line;

Long Order Strategy:
Strategy 2: Go long (buy up) near 2890-2895 when gold pulls back, stop loss 6 points, target near 2900-2910, break to see 2915 line;

قبل ٥ أيام

تم فتح الصفقة

Will gold break a new high on February 19?

Gold explores historical highs three times, who will win in the long-short game?

1. Judgment of current trends
Strong cyclical bulls: Gold showed a volatile and slow rise yesterday, approaching the previous high of 2940. The bulls have strong momentum, and there is the possibility of continuing to rise in early Asian trading.

Key resistance: The 2940-2950 area is an important resistance band. If it breaks through, it may open upward space to 2970 or even an integer mark (such as 3000).

Potential risks: If the three attempts to rise fail (triple top pattern), it may trigger a deep technical adjustment, with support focusing on 2920-2915 and 2905.

Asian early trading strength and weakness: 2930

Operational advice: Although the bulls are strong and the previous high has not been broken, do not chase the high above 2930 and wait patiently for market signals and opportunities. Do not chase high above 2930, and wait patiently for market signals and opportunities.

2. Strategy reference
High-level short-selling strategy:
Entry point: Short-selling game with a light position near 2950.
Stop loss: 2955.
Target: Near 2940, break to 2930-2920.
Logic: There is technical resistance in the high area. If the price fails to break through effectively, it may pull back.
Risk: If it strongly breaks through the 2955 stop loss level, it may trigger the short stop loss and accelerate the rise. You need to be alert to the continuation of the trend.

Low-level long strategy:
Entry point: First consider short-term long near 2915 after a retracement.
Stop loss: 2910.
Target: 2930-2940.
Logic: 2920-2915 is a short-term support. If it does not break after a retracement, it can be regarded as an opportunity for long entry.
Risk: If it falls below the support of 2910, it may further drop to 2905 or even a deeper correction.
Actual combat combined with technical indicators to confirm the signal.

3. Matching market sentiment and fundamentals
Geopolitics/Economic Data: Unexpected events or US inflation data may disrupt the technical pattern, so remain flexible.

4. Position management and risk control
Strict stop loss for intraday trading: Today's intraday volatility is about 30-50 US dollars, and traders should try to participate with a light position.
Profits from trading are pocketed in a timely manner: if the amount of capital is small, you can make a profit within a trading day and accumulate profits.

Summary：
Gold is currently at a critical node in the long-short game, and trading should be mainly short-term, focusing on the following points:
Whether the 2940-2950 area breaks through or not determines the short-term direction.
Strict risk control, avoid holding orders, and be especially wary of false market breakthroughs.
Flexible adjustment: If the price quickly breaks through 2950 and then falls back to stabilize, it should be switched to trend trading in a timely manner.
Observe the continuation of the trend in early Asian trading. Don’t be careless by touching highs three times, and pay attention to the possibility of amplified volatility during the US trading session. If sudden news from fundamentals drives gold prices, it is necessary to give priority to market sentiment and adjust strategies in a timely manner.

قبل ٤ أيام

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:

Analysis of gold news: On Wednesday (February 19) during the U.S. trading session, the international gold market hit a high and then fell back. The market is currently paying attention to the talks between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting to be released on this trading day. Recently, U.S. President Trump has reiterated that he will impose high tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products, of which automobile tariffs may reach 25%, which has intensified market concerns about global trade. However, the U.S. dollar as a whole is still near a two-month low as the market is cautious about the tariff threats constantly released by the Trump administration. "As long as Trump is seen as 'crying wolf' on the issue of tariffs, long positions in the U.S. dollar will face pressure," said Sean Callow, senior foreign exchange analyst at InTouch Capital Markets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January meeting later on Wednesday, and investors hope to find out the Fed's views on the impact of the global trade situation. At present, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 35 basis points in 2025, which may limit the upside of the U.S. dollar.

Technical analysis of gold: From the daily chart of gold, after a brief correction at the previous high, the price of gold rose strongly again yesterday, not only rising above the short-term moving average group, but also close to the historical high. The next key pressure level is expected to be around $2,960. At this stage, the MACD indicator is expected to form a golden cross again, but the indicator is still running at a high level, and the upward momentum is slightly insufficient. If the red column of the MACD indicator turns green, indicating a decrease in momentum, there is a possibility of a second downward trend in the gold price. This week, investors can focus on price action in the $2,910-$2,960 range.

From the perspective of gold 4 hours, the price of gold once fell below $2,880, but after successfully standing firm at the key support level this week, the bulls once again exerted their strength and recovered the $2,900 mark. The current price is close to the $2,942 pressure level, and various technical indicators are still in the rising range. It can be seen that the price of gold has returned to the upward trend. However, if we want to further open up the upward space, we need to break through the previous historical high as soon as possible. In addition, the MACD indicator forms a golden cross again near the 0 axis, which is undoubtedly a positive signal. If the gold price can effectively stand at $2942, it is expected to open up upward space. Based on the above analysis, in terms of operational strategies, it is still recommended that investors mainly go long on dips. On the whole, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends buying on pullbacks as the main strategy and shorting on rebounds as the supplementary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2950-2955 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2925-2920 support line.