xauusd possible scenarios using elliotwave and price action
تم تحديثه
*using the above chart
1st possible scenario and the most likely to unfold: bearish trend is unfolding with 3 downside movements, currently were in wave 4, if it exceeds (1) at $2450 (red horizontal line), then this will invalidate this scenario and the second scenario will unfold. due to the rule of alternation wave 4 (retracing or correcting wave) will be at 0.5 on the fibb ratio (2413). withing wave 4, i expect a zig zag pattern to unfold which contain two upswing movements prior to continuing the bearish trend (A is the first upswing and C is the last upswing of the retracement or corrective pattern.) currently we're in the C upswing movement, as shown.
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currently within the above chart on 5mins, as i said this is wave C currently unfolding, that contain and impulse that has three upswing (1,3 and 5) curently we're within wave 3, that has an extension ( the current wave 3 will have another impulse 12345 pattern) before being completed. thus it will be of a a big mangnitude relatively to the other 3 upswing waves within C. so its kinda chill since the second last upswing move 3, is extended, that will take some time, and the retracing wave 4, then the finale wave 5 will hapen, causing termination of impulse (1,2,3,4,5 ) and the ABC move on the 4hr chart i showed.
-also the prediction will be larger its just because theres no space so i compacted it, the impulse should terminate around the 0.5 LEVEL on fib.
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1hr chart yes there is a slowdown of momentum and bearish candle seemingly unfolding latest candle) but this because of wave 4 within wave 3 thats occuring ( a much smaller degree on the 5 minute chart) so its irrelevant currently and will be a small retracement.
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1hr chart. ultimatly, this is how it should like overall (major market structure, not reffering to internal market structure but the big big moves.)
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2. scenario 2: price surpasses (1) at 2450 at the line, then that upswing ive counted as ABC retracment pattern will actually was supposed to be a impulse pattern (12345) the whole time (whether completed or still is unfolding). where the yellow C of the ABC pattern is resistance at $2352 for the impulse pattern that has exceeded 1 at 2450. (ofcourse this a major resistance level on the 1 and 4 chart, that you wouldnt use for a stop loss and just for the reality.) and overall it should surpass 3 (with the circle) at 2483 or at least 0.886 of 3 at 2470
however this is unlikely cause then the $2352 level would be retracing wave 3 at 0.146 on the fib, and has produced a small number of candles comparative to wave 3. since its too small in time and price its unlikely for this scenario to occur.
based on this i dont reccomend anything now,
i'll update when the last upswing will happen to complete the ABC pattern for a 1 to 4hr reversal to a downtrend . with resistance level on 1 min chart and maybe entry points
1st possible scenario and the most likely to unfold: bearish trend is unfolding with 3 downside movements, currently were in wave 4, if it exceeds (1) at $2450 (red horizontal line), then this will invalidate this scenario and the second scenario will unfold. due to the rule of alternation wave 4 (retracing or correcting wave) will be at 0.5 on the fibb ratio (2413). withing wave 4, i expect a zig zag pattern to unfold which contain two upswing movements prior to continuing the bearish trend (A is the first upswing and C is the last upswing of the retracement or corrective pattern.) currently we're in the C upswing movement, as shown.
__________
currently within the above chart on 5mins, as i said this is wave C currently unfolding, that contain and impulse that has three upswing (1,3 and 5) curently we're within wave 3, that has an extension ( the current wave 3 will have another impulse 12345 pattern) before being completed. thus it will be of a a big mangnitude relatively to the other 3 upswing waves within C. so its kinda chill since the second last upswing move 3, is extended, that will take some time, and the retracing wave 4, then the finale wave 5 will hapen, causing termination of impulse (1,2,3,4,5 ) and the ABC move on the 4hr chart i showed.
-also the prediction will be larger its just because theres no space so i compacted it, the impulse should terminate around the 0.5 LEVEL on fib.
___________
1hr chart yes there is a slowdown of momentum and bearish candle seemingly unfolding latest candle) but this because of wave 4 within wave 3 thats occuring ( a much smaller degree on the 5 minute chart) so its irrelevant currently and will be a small retracement.
___
1hr chart. ultimatly, this is how it should like overall (major market structure, not reffering to internal market structure but the big big moves.)
_____
2. scenario 2: price surpasses (1) at 2450 at the line, then that upswing ive counted as ABC retracment pattern will actually was supposed to be a impulse pattern (12345) the whole time (whether completed or still is unfolding). where the yellow C of the ABC pattern is resistance at $2352 for the impulse pattern that has exceeded 1 at 2450. (ofcourse this a major resistance level on the 1 and 4 chart, that you wouldnt use for a stop loss and just for the reality.) and overall it should surpass 3 (with the circle) at 2483 or at least 0.886 of 3 at 2470
however this is unlikely cause then the $2352 level would be retracing wave 3 at 0.146 on the fib, and has produced a small number of candles comparative to wave 3. since its too small in time and price its unlikely for this scenario to occur.
based on this i dont reccomend anything now,
i'll update when the last upswing will happen to complete the ABC pattern for a 1 to 4hr reversal to a downtrend . with resistance level on 1 min chart and maybe entry points
ملاحظة
a clearer pic of scenairo 2, that will replace the prior pic (latest pic or below)ملاحظة
scenario 1.i made an error
here is the rewnwed internal structure or internal count of the impulse within the greater degree ziz zag pattern on the 4 hr chart
ملاحظة
i got serious and fixed the internal countsملاحظة
final prediction for this ideaملاحظة
(4) indicates a termination of correction at 2418, and that will be the invalid point or resistance until at least 2363 (thats the previous downswing low lablled (3)) . during that, price will contain a major downsing, retracement, then downswing thats shown by the labels and trendlines. this target of (3)at 2363 is even accounting for a possiblty of truncation, so that level is the minim target but i expect it surpass 2352, thats the low of (a)
after that (price surpasses at least (3) and makes two downswings) price can retrace past (4) at 2418, prior to surpassing the previous downswing, hence i only labelled, what i labelled.
ملاحظة
By the way the most recent post supersedes its predecessors (updated and current). after prices reaches its lowest point, prior to a large retracment ensuing (two downswing judged by elliiot wave) , or hits the invalid point i'll update and stop posting. ملاحظة
type shitملاحظة
and this is the larger timeframe analysis that pairs with only the latest post
ملاحظة
5min chart
price dropped 300 pips, as i expected.
currently its retracing with the max point at the invalid level indicated. but i expect it to nearly be finsihed around 2400. the minim target is 2352 at the low of (a) on 4hr timeframe.
when its stop retracing i'll post again. you know, for the boys...
"gotta rep the set, chase a check, never chase a women , dont chase now women" mhh facts. but not in a offensive way i respect women (focus on your game type shit)
ملاحظة
15 min chart
price retracement became larger, so it broke the invalid point, now its terminated, indicated by the peak of wave 2
price target is (a), from the above post
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stopped
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