✅ Fundamental Analysis
🔹 Weak U.S. Labor Data: The latest data shows initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, with continuing claims reaching 1.974 million, indicating clear signs of labor market weakness.
🔹 Rising Rate Cut Expectations: The market is now pricing in over a 91% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. The U.S. Dollar Index has come under pressure, falling toward the 98.36 level, which is providing support for gold prices.
✅ Technical Analysis
🔸 The gold market has seen intense competition between bulls and bears recently. While prices have made several short-term breakouts, the broader trend remains a wide consolidation between the 3400–3370 range. The monthly chart has shown four consecutive months of intraday highs followed by pullbacks, with continuous upper wicks, reflecting significant selling pressure at higher levels. From a pattern perspective, the outlook leans toward a medium-term rally followed by a pullback. The key uncertainty is whether gold will turn lower immediately after piercing the 3400 level, or push to new all-time highs before entering a correction.
🔸 We have repeatedly emphasized the potential for gold to test the 3400 level, with particular attention on the 3405–3410 resistance zone. As of yesterday’s close, the daily chart still failed to hold above 3400, suggesting bullish momentum remains unstable. In the Asian session today, gold opened higher around 3403, showing sharp intraday volatility—first rallying to 3406, then falling to 3396, rebounding to 3409, and then quickly dropping to 3382. This price action highlights the fierce tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The main driver behind these swings remains tariff-related news impacting market sentiment.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 3405–3410 / 3432–3439
🟢 Support Levels: 3375–3370 / 3345–3350
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔻 Short Position Strategy:
🔰Consider entering short positions in batches if gold rebounds to the 3402–3408 area. Target: 3370-3360；If support breaks, the move may extend to 3350.
🔺 Long Position Strategy:
🔰Consider entering long positions in batches if gold pulls back to the 3345-3350 area. Target: 3365-3375；If resistance breaks, the move may extend to 3385.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions or need one-on-one guidance, feel free to contact me🤝
🔹 Weak U.S. Labor Data: The latest data shows initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, with continuing claims reaching 1.974 million, indicating clear signs of labor market weakness.
🔹 Rising Rate Cut Expectations: The market is now pricing in over a 91% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. The U.S. Dollar Index has come under pressure, falling toward the 98.36 level, which is providing support for gold prices.
✅ Technical Analysis
🔸 The gold market has seen intense competition between bulls and bears recently. While prices have made several short-term breakouts, the broader trend remains a wide consolidation between the 3400–3370 range. The monthly chart has shown four consecutive months of intraday highs followed by pullbacks, with continuous upper wicks, reflecting significant selling pressure at higher levels. From a pattern perspective, the outlook leans toward a medium-term rally followed by a pullback. The key uncertainty is whether gold will turn lower immediately after piercing the 3400 level, or push to new all-time highs before entering a correction.
🔸 We have repeatedly emphasized the potential for gold to test the 3400 level, with particular attention on the 3405–3410 resistance zone. As of yesterday’s close, the daily chart still failed to hold above 3400, suggesting bullish momentum remains unstable. In the Asian session today, gold opened higher around 3403, showing sharp intraday volatility—first rallying to 3406, then falling to 3396, rebounding to 3409, and then quickly dropping to 3382. This price action highlights the fierce tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The main driver behind these swings remains tariff-related news impacting market sentiment.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 3405–3410 / 3432–3439
🟢 Support Levels: 3375–3370 / 3345–3350
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔻 Short Position Strategy:
🔰Consider entering short positions in batches if gold rebounds to the 3402–3408 area. Target: 3370-3360；If support breaks, the move may extend to 3350.
🔺 Long Position Strategy:
🔰Consider entering long positions in batches if gold pulls back to the 3345-3350 area. Target: 3365-3375；If resistance breaks, the move may extend to 3385.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions or need one-on-one guidance, feel free to contact me🤝
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.