Getting ready for a difficult week and analyzing key events

٢ ديسمبر ٢٠١٩

The previous week for the foreign exchange market was marked by record-low volatility. Even the blackest Friday of the year did not desire to buy or sell actively anything.

The informational background of the week was relatively calm. Negotiations between the US and China were moving somewhere, according to the assurances of the parties. But the markets are tired of talks and waiting for actions. And then Trump signed an extremely irritating China law to support Hong Kong protesters. That hypothetically could disrupt the entire negotiation process. In general, so far everything is not that clear, which means potentially unstable.

Accordingly, this week we are looking for opportunities for the purchase of safe-haven assets. The points for this are very prospective, in terms of profit/risk per trade.

The upcoming week will be interesting. Statistics on the US labour market will be published on Friday, which is expected to lead to strong movements in dollar pairs. Also, OPEC will meet on Thursday, which in theory could provoke an explosion of volatility in the oil market. According to experts, Saudi Arabia may put the question point-blank of non-fulfilment by several members of their obligations under OPEC +. Actually, it is the efforts of the Saudis that keep afloat the conditions for reducing production by 1.2 million barrels. If Saudi Arabia decides that they are done, the oil will fall quickly and violently (see oil dynamics on Friday). In this light, let us recall our recommendation to sell oil as a basic idea for working with oil under current conditions.

Another important news that worth noting is the announcement of the Bank of Canada decision on monetary policy parameters, data on Eurozone GDP and US business activity indices.

So far, our position on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. But a series of a confident macroeconomic positive outcome may make us change our position, at least in the short term position. So we will closely follow the news.