GOLD, will we see 1920 in wave 2 [UPDATE]

٢٩ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

Welcome back everyone!

Gold followed my long term view and could have finished the wave B pullback within a wave 2 according to Elliot wave analysis. We are now at a very important important resistance zone 2072 - 2090 and got a first bearish reaction from here.

The long term idea is that Gold ended impulsive wave 1 with the new ATH and now started an ABC correction in wave two. A move down in a wave C from here could develop in a large wave C correction with the main target at 1920. As this is a huge move I don't want to miss this and will observe the upcoming price development. I will update this analysis regularly, so feel free to follow my TV channel.

Important support zones
2042 - 2053
2009 - 2019
1970 - 1980
1908 - 1938

٣ يناير

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

Gold has fallen to the mentioned support area at 2042 and is about to break down more. There is a chance for a pullback to the 2060 area, which I would suggest to sell again.

٣ يناير

ملاحظة

Gold reached 2032 and stopped for a moment. For my view the breakdown of 2042 support was the first confirmation for the big short setup. Any pullback to 2050-2070 can be sold.

٣ يناير

ملاحظة

I checked the sub wave count and we have a confirmation for wave 3 started already. Wave 1 starting from the 2088 high has a 5 wave pattern, wave 2 topped at 1980 a 3 wave pattern. Now there are two options:
- Breaking down directly in wave 3
- Pullback for another 1,2 setup towards the mentioned area in the last comment.

٤ يناير

ملاحظة

Today we have a better picture and probably started to recover in a wave 4, however I think 2060 area is still a good spot to sell with target around 2020.
If price breaks over 2060, I expect a retest of 2080 and then another massive sell of.

٥ يناير

ملاحظة

Very strange price development today. Against the very good data from US, Gold was highly bought at the rising trendline and corrected to 1960. We have to see how the price will react here.

٨ يناير

ملاحظة

This is a good moment to talk about market manipulation and how to deal with it.
On Friday NFP data came out way better than expected, but after a sharp drop Gold rose up retested a broken trendline near 2060. In these situations it is very important to make a step back and think about the facts:

- Golds price is up against the news background (Good NFP data)
- Golds price is up against the fundamental background (High IR rates)
- 2050-2060 is a strong resistance zone

For me there was no evidence at all a bullish move could have been started, so I positioned my self on the short side again. Gold closed below the most important level of 2050, so there was no need to close positions on friday and on monday the market participants began to realise that the FED will not change IR rates as fast as expected.

Gold fell to 2027 and is currently fighting with the upward trendline again, where the metal was bought during NFP news. Is we see a close below 2026, the next support area (market in the idea) will be reached. Otherwise the price could come back to test 2040-2050 again, where I will see again.

٨ يناير

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

The next support was reached after the close below 2026 as I explained in the last comment. Now I would like to see a pullback from 2008-2020 somewhere to around 2040 to sell again.

٩ يناير

ملاحظة

Pullback is playing out as expected. At this point it's not easy to say how far the pullback can go, so better not risk too much.

If we are in a ABC correction to the upside starting from 2017, 2046 would be the end of wave C.

٩ يناير

ملاحظة

Gold is strongly related to the dollar these days, so always good to keep an eye on it. Actually the DXY is showing more strength than expected, so a bearish wave in gold could start very soon. I take the risk to position myself short now.

٩ يناير

ملاحظة

The maximum for the day seemed to be reached. Overall very slow price action, but in the end of the day a good profit. Not I'm waiting for the daily close to consider how gold could develop tomorrow.

١٠ يناير

ملاحظة

Nothing is moving today, because the market is awaiting CPI news tomorrow. From a technical point of view we have a very strong resistance area between 2040 and 2050, which you can use to go short. I would like to take profits, if the lower boundary of the downtrend is reached, which is near 2000-2010 at the moment. This is also the ending point of an ABC pattern started from 2088.

For the bullish move I don't see any evidence, Therefore the upper boundary of the downtrend must be broken first, which is a move above 2050. But even then, we have several strong resistance areas next, so it will be hard to make a good trade from here.

١١ يناير

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

Target area of 2020 was reached again.
Did you notice that move directly came from 2040? :)

١٢ يناير

ملاحظة

We are back close to 2050 again. I think it's good to sell here again. Maximum should be 2060 area in short term.

١٢ يناير

ملاحظة

2060 reached. If you got a short position here it's better to close now with profit as we are heading into the weekend and you never know what happens next in these times of war. I will take action next week, waiting for the weekly close now.

١٦ يناير

ملاحظة

Gold is showing signs of weakness as DXY is rising. Will be interesting to go short again soon.

١٧ يناير

ملاحظة

This idea is developing great. I want you to be aware of the possibility of a pullback from 2008 towards 2025-2040. This is where I would begin to sell again.

١٨ يناير

ملاحظة

Pullback is in the making and is not impulsive at all, most likely the market makers are bringing the price back up to have a better position for selling. I checked the chart and we have strong resistances at 2015 and 2022. Also the downtrend line is at about 2022. Most likely the Dollar (DXY) will give us the direction of Gold again, it's currently making a pause from the strong breakout move this week, but I expect the move to expand at least until 104 points.

١٩ يناير

ملاحظة

Pullback to 2040 completed on point. Hope you took a sell there, as we are back to 2025 again. The weekly candle close is very important now. I would like to see a strong bearish candle to consider further downside the next few weeks.
Also DXY is showing strength again, all in line with expectations so far.

٢٢ يناير

ملاحظة

There is a possibility to test the area of 2040-2050 again and I would be interested to sell there. It's important to observe the DXY chart, currently it's correcting the bullish move from last week, but I think there should be at least one more bullish wave to 104,xx

٢٥ يناير

ملاحظة

As you may noticed, the suppression point moved lower. Any bounce to 2032-2040 should be a good sell.

١ فبراير

تم فتح الصفقة

The picture is a bit unclear, but the main idea remains intact. Starting with the first short position again from 2060.

٢ فبراير

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

2030 reached again on very good NFP data. I will update this weekend for a possible reversal entry.

٥ فبراير

ملاحظة

As I just saw I forgot to update, but the reversal happened as expected. Hopefully you took the chance to go short again.
As the price was supported and closed above 2020 there is a chance to test 2030-2040 again before further sell off action will take place.

٦ فبراير

تم فتح الصفقة

2035 reached. Selling again.

٩ فبراير

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

2020 reached again. This is getting very boring. Gold is consolidating within a large triangle for weeks now. The breakdown of 2020 should initiate further sell off.

١٣ فبراير

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

1990 reached. Finally we got the break out from the triangle pattern I was talking about. Also the key level of 2020 was nicely defined and the current CPI data supported the move. I don't expect, that we go back to 2020 now. 1980 should be the next target, from where a pullback could form because of horizontal support (orderblock) and a dynamic trendline, that is quiet relevant. Maybe the pullback retest 2000 area before we break down more.

Please note, that 1920 is the main target for this post, but Gold is always highly effected by fundamental factors and economic data. Also 1940 and 1960 should be strong levels, from where a bullish move could start.

Also we have to now observe if we see a change of character in the current downtrend. So far everything has been extremly choppy, it would be nice, if we get more direct downside now, like today.

١٦ فبراير

ملاحظة

Pullback was created a bit earlier than expected, but technically valid. The price was rejected from 2008 resistance today. If we see a break above tomorrow, the price could reach 2020-2030 again. This area would be attractive for another short position. Today's data was not good for the DXY, tomorrow there will be PPI data, which could be very important. The weekly open is a 2030, another reason to retest this area.

Scalp buys from the current level (2003) are possible withe targets around 2020.

١٦ فبراير

ملاحظة

As I can see Gold is facing heavy resistance at 2004-2008. Maybe the short move is already starting from this point. But we could also see a wick next week and then further sell off towards 1980 again.

١٩ فبراير

تم فتح الصفقة

2020 reached if you bought. I'm in sells now and will add up if we reach 2030.

٢ مارس

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول لوقف الخسارة

Not sure where we are now at the wave count as the price shoots up to the wave B top again. We have to observe what is going on now. At least most of the analysis worked out very well, but at this point it's not clear anymore.