Technical Analysis - Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
Current Context
The chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle, indicating a period of indecision in the market. This pattern is defined by:
A downtrend line connecting points B and D (resistance).
An upward support line connecting points A and C.
Currently, the price is hovering near the resistance line (~$2681.51), close to point D.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Breakout:
If the price breaks above the resistance around point D (~$2688) with significant volume, this could lead to a bullish rally towards key levels:
First target: $2721 (intermediate resistance zone).
Second target: $2790 (measured move based on the triangle's height).
Bearish Breakdown:
If the price fails to break the resistance and reverses lower, it may test the support line near point E.
Key levels to watch:
First support zone: $2635 - $2617 (highlighted gray area).
Major support: $2532, a critical long-term level.
Impact of NFP
Today's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will likely introduce significant volatility to the market. Two key scenarios to consider:
Better-than-expected data: Strengthening of the US Dollar, which could push gold prices lower.
Weaker-than-expected data: Weakening of the US Dollar, potentially driving gold to break the resistance and move higher.
NFP Economic Calendar Impact - Analysis for Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
The economic calendar highlights key data releases that will impact the USD, and subsequently, gold prices. Below is an analysis of the listed events:
Key Events at 2:30 PM (UTC+1):
Average Hourly Earnings (m/m):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.4%
Impact: A lower-than-expected reading would suggest weaker wage inflation, which could weigh on the USD and push gold prices higher. Conversely, a higher reading would support the USD, pressuring gold.
Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP):
Forecast: 164K
Previous: 227K
Impact: This is the most significant release. A lower-than-expected number could signal a weakening labor market, leading to USD depreciation and gold rallying. A strong figure would have the opposite effect.
Unemployment Rate:
Forecast: 4.2%
Previous: 4.2%
Impact: A stable unemployment rate aligns with expectations. However, any surprise movement will amplify the NFP’s impact on the market.
Later Events at 4:00 PM:
Preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment:
Forecast: 74.0 (unchanged from the previous reading).
Impact: Limited unless there is a significant deviation. This sentiment gauge indirectly impacts gold via its influence on the USD.
Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations:
Previous: 2.8%
Impact: Inflationary pressures can support gold prices as a hedge. A higher number here might limit gold's downside.
Trading Strategy Suggestions:
Before 2:30 PM:
Avoid taking significant positions as market volatility will likely increase around these releases.
Post-NFP Release:
If NFP and Average Hourly Earnings miss forecasts, gold may break above the $2688 resistance, targeting $2721 and $2790.
If data is stronger than expected, watch for bearish momentum towards $2635 and $2617.
disclaimer This is not financial advice
The chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle, indicating a period of indecision in the market. This pattern is defined by:
A downtrend line connecting points B and D (resistance).
An upward support line connecting points A and C.
Currently, the price is hovering near the resistance line (~$2681.51), close to point D.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Breakout:
If the price breaks above the resistance around point D (~$2688) with significant volume, this could lead to a bullish rally towards key levels:
First target: $2721 (intermediate resistance zone).
Second target: $2790 (measured move based on the triangle's height).
Bearish Breakdown:
If the price fails to break the resistance and reverses lower, it may test the support line near point E.
Key levels to watch:
First support zone: $2635 - $2617 (highlighted gray area).
Major support: $2532, a critical long-term level.
Impact of NFP
Today's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will likely introduce significant volatility to the market. Two key scenarios to consider:
Better-than-expected data: Strengthening of the US Dollar, which could push gold prices lower.
Weaker-than-expected data: Weakening of the US Dollar, potentially driving gold to break the resistance and move higher.
NFP Economic Calendar Impact - Analysis for Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
The economic calendar highlights key data releases that will impact the USD, and subsequently, gold prices. Below is an analysis of the listed events:
Key Events at 2:30 PM (UTC+1):
Average Hourly Earnings (m/m):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.4%
Impact: A lower-than-expected reading would suggest weaker wage inflation, which could weigh on the USD and push gold prices higher. Conversely, a higher reading would support the USD, pressuring gold.
Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP):
Forecast: 164K
Previous: 227K
Impact: This is the most significant release. A lower-than-expected number could signal a weakening labor market, leading to USD depreciation and gold rallying. A strong figure would have the opposite effect.
Unemployment Rate:
Forecast: 4.2%
Previous: 4.2%
Impact: A stable unemployment rate aligns with expectations. However, any surprise movement will amplify the NFP’s impact on the market.
Later Events at 4:00 PM:
Preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment:
Forecast: 74.0 (unchanged from the previous reading).
Impact: Limited unless there is a significant deviation. This sentiment gauge indirectly impacts gold via its influence on the USD.
Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations:
Previous: 2.8%
Impact: Inflationary pressures can support gold prices as a hedge. A higher number here might limit gold's downside.
Trading Strategy Suggestions:
Before 2:30 PM:
Avoid taking significant positions as market volatility will likely increase around these releases.
Post-NFP Release:
If NFP and Average Hourly Earnings miss forecasts, gold may break above the $2688 resistance, targeting $2721 and $2790.
If data is stronger than expected, watch for bearish momentum towards $2635 and $2617.
disclaimer This is not financial advice
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.