GOLD - Below the 200 SMA

This is not a new short call. It's just the follow through for those who are still holding the short positions.
Gold's year end move will depend on the dollar. If the dollar can print its final rally then we drop to 1200. If not we just rally above the 200 SMA and the new intermediate cycle can start.

I saw many fancy newsletter writers this week calling for a gold bottom, and gold/silver miners bottom.
There's no need to rush. The end of this intermediate cycle is early January. Even if we have the lows in there will be a sideways bottom before gold can rally . It's not going to be a V-shaped bottom as many players anticipate.

Let's go through what happened the last few weeks.Price was crawling for weeks along the 200 SMA in a rectangle consolidation. A few days ago broke down and we tagged 1236$ .
The target price counted from the rectangle is completed at 1236 :

But after that long consolidation I doubt the downmove is over. Even the best scenario for bulls right now is a sideways move into January with a double or triple bottom. The rectangle consolidation was too long and the drop was too small for a V-shaped bottom...

And as stocks are printing a final rally into the year end - with a possible dollar bounce - I still see a god chance for the test of the red dotted line at around 1200-1207.

Below the 200 SMA at the end of the intermediate cycle we can't talk about bull market in the short term. I suggest to wait a bit more with closing the short positions . My target is between : 1235-1210. I suggest to close continuously in this range in the following 2-3 weeks.
Timewise by the 10th of January all short positions should be closed.

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Waiting for the wedge to breakdown. It is the exact back test of the prevoius pattern's neckline right now.

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100 SMA
Pullback is starting here.

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Miners are leading this bounce and not following gold .
This is just a low volume algo rally. The volume will come with the guillotine.

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Time to take profit for bulls.
This is not going to end well.

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Though we are reversing from 1307$ ( the previous DCL high) :

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We broke that level :

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The chance raised significantly the ICL is in.

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I will see if we need to get out at around 1270 next week.

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But the time was not to close the position today into the hyper overbought condition (hourly RSI at 99) where the trolls suggested .
Let's see if we can get the inverted hammer by the close.

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The reversal is at the corner.
Stocks are printing a reversal with the dollar.
DXY is due for a DCL.
So now we will know where we are soon:

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Half of average volume day after day.
If we have a day where the volume is double than average (4x of today volume) :
we will be erasing 4-5 days of gain.
Waiting for the test of the 200 and 50 SMA at 1271.

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And a few hours later here is the reversal.

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This also means stocks are going to break to new highs this week. And the dollar will bounce from its DCL.

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Stocks are at new highs.

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Swing low in the dollar:

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The gap will be filled this week.

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EurUsd topped:

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Daily swing in gold. It’s possible daily cycle topped yesterday.

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Notice how gold, oil, natgas. stocks are going down together with a tiny 0,5% dollar pop. This is a start of something new.