Gold: 70% Chance of 1524+ Tomorrow; 1540 Near-Term

Today the main indices fell rather abruptly due to an algo sell off from payroll cuts possibly from Trump in the last hour. However, volatility in the main indices will likely continue as we failed to test 26,500 for example on the Dow. What this means is you can expect a downtrend in the main indices. Importantly, I am expecting the Fed to be dovish on future cuts but not for September. This will likely trigger a hard sell-off after he speaks tomorrow (Wednesday).

How does this relate to Gold? Two-fold. The expectation of likely cuts sometime other than September will likely slowly devalue the USD (DXY) and in the long-run of course, increase Gold's value. This sell-off will likely intrigue people into buying more Gold and the algo bots will continue to slowly add entries.

The PCC ratio continues to fall which means more people are selling the highs, rather than buying for the next "bull-run".

My TP for tomorrow conservatively, is 1524-1528 +/- 3pts (i.e. 1521-1531), with 1540 not too far away.

Remember all those times I said not to panic sell because of the recent fake bear flag to 1484 (and the other fake bear flag a little while ago to 1402)? This is why.

- zSplit

تعليق:

Got my dates wrong on the Fed! This idea is still possible but mainly plausible for Thursday/Friday.

تم حذف الأمر:

Got my dates wrong on the Fed! This idea is still possible but mainly plausible for Thursday/Friday.

تم فتح الصفقة:

Fed minutes were more "influential" than what I originally thought. TP by Friday is 1525 atleast.

Once we hit 1525 then next target is 1580 with some resistance then 1600. From 1600 we could pullback to 1560s before re-testing 1600 again.

Once we hit 1600 re-test, FOMO will increase and we will see moves from 1600-1700 quicker than 1300-1400 and 1400-1500 and 1500-1600.

I will update an idea this weekend.