Trend: Strong uptrend with higher highs/lows. Momentum pullbacks have been shallow, so fading strength is riskier unless the structure actually breaks.
Range/structure: We have a consolidation box roughly 3550–3595 with repeated tests. 3604 is just above the range highs; 3577 is near the middle/edge of that structure. There’s a visible supply band overhead around 3619–3630 and again near 3649–3671; supports step down at 3550, 3534/3531, 3516, 3488, 3460.
Key takeaway: 3604 is a momentum continuation trigger into immediate supply. 3577 is a structure-break trigger for a mean-reversion leg back into the lower supports.
Trade plans around your levels
Buy stop 3604 (trend-following):
Trigger: Only on a 4H close above 3604 or a strong impulse through it with expanding volume/ATR.
Initial take-profits: 3619–3630 (major supply), 3649, then 3671/3700 if a catalyst sends it.
Protective stop: Below reclaimed structure at 3588–3592. If you need more room, 3577 is your last-ditch invalidation.
Notes: R:R is tight if your first TP is 3619–3630. Improve it by either:
Scaling in on a retest of 3590–3600 after the breakout, or
Letting price clear 3610–3615 and using a tighter trailing stop once it holds above 3604.
Sell stop 3577 (countertrend/structure break):
Trigger: 4H close below 3577 or a breakdown plus a failed retest of 3577–3585 from beneath.
Initial take-profits: 3550, 3534/3531, then 3516; stretch to 3488 if risk-off unwinds and USD/real yields rip higher.
Protective stop: Above 3592–3600; hard invalidation on a reclaim and hold above 3604.
Notes: This setup usually offers better initial R:R, but you’re trading against the higher-timeframe trend unless macro flips risk-off into USD strength and higher real yields.
Event risk and how it ties to these levels
Most impactful drivers for gold in the week ahead are the USD and real yields around major data and central-bank communication.
Typical heavy hitters to watch on your calendar: US CPI/PPI, Fed speakers/FOMC blackout windows, ECB/BoE decisions or guidance, US Retail Sales/ISM, and any geopolitical flare-ups (Middle East, Ukraine, Taiwan). Check your economic calendar for exact dates/times this week.
Conditional map:
Softer US inflation/data or dovish tones → lower real yields/softer USD → favors the 3604 breakout holding; look to trail into 3619–3649+.
Hot inflation/strong data or hawkish repricing → higher real yields/firm USD → increases odds of a failed breakout and breakdown through 3577 toward 3550/3534.
Geopolitical escalations usually bid gold on spikes; if that’s the catalyst, expect slippage through 3604 and fast tags of 3619/3649.
Execution notes
Avoid entering right into scheduled releases; let the first impulse print and then go with the close
Trade safe as always use proper risk management
Range/structure: We have a consolidation box roughly 3550–3595 with repeated tests. 3604 is just above the range highs; 3577 is near the middle/edge of that structure. There’s a visible supply band overhead around 3619–3630 and again near 3649–3671; supports step down at 3550, 3534/3531, 3516, 3488, 3460.
Key takeaway: 3604 is a momentum continuation trigger into immediate supply. 3577 is a structure-break trigger for a mean-reversion leg back into the lower supports.
Trade plans around your levels
Buy stop 3604 (trend-following):
Trigger: Only on a 4H close above 3604 or a strong impulse through it with expanding volume/ATR.
Initial take-profits: 3619–3630 (major supply), 3649, then 3671/3700 if a catalyst sends it.
Protective stop: Below reclaimed structure at 3588–3592. If you need more room, 3577 is your last-ditch invalidation.
Notes: R:R is tight if your first TP is 3619–3630. Improve it by either:
Scaling in on a retest of 3590–3600 after the breakout, or
Letting price clear 3610–3615 and using a tighter trailing stop once it holds above 3604.
Sell stop 3577 (countertrend/structure break):
Trigger: 4H close below 3577 or a breakdown plus a failed retest of 3577–3585 from beneath.
Initial take-profits: 3550, 3534/3531, then 3516; stretch to 3488 if risk-off unwinds and USD/real yields rip higher.
Protective stop: Above 3592–3600; hard invalidation on a reclaim and hold above 3604.
Notes: This setup usually offers better initial R:R, but you’re trading against the higher-timeframe trend unless macro flips risk-off into USD strength and higher real yields.
Event risk and how it ties to these levels
Most impactful drivers for gold in the week ahead are the USD and real yields around major data and central-bank communication.
Typical heavy hitters to watch on your calendar: US CPI/PPI, Fed speakers/FOMC blackout windows, ECB/BoE decisions or guidance, US Retail Sales/ISM, and any geopolitical flare-ups (Middle East, Ukraine, Taiwan). Check your economic calendar for exact dates/times this week.
Conditional map:
Softer US inflation/data or dovish tones → lower real yields/softer USD → favors the 3604 breakout holding; look to trail into 3619–3649+.
Hot inflation/strong data or hawkish repricing → higher real yields/firm USD → increases odds of a failed breakout and breakdown through 3577 toward 3550/3534.
Geopolitical escalations usually bid gold on spikes; if that’s the catalyst, expect slippage through 3604 and fast tags of 3619/3649.
Execution notes
Avoid entering right into scheduled releases; let the first impulse print and then go with the close
Trade safe as always use proper risk management
ملاحظة
Running 225 pips from the buyملاحظة
ملاحظة
337 pips from the buy
ملاحظة
إخلاء المسؤولية
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.