MQP INFINITE REGRESSION 4-C CALL OF THE YEAR CHEAT SHEET #2
GIST - SIMILAR TO 4-B CHEAT SHEET #1 W/ NOTABLE DIFFERENCES:
BACKGROUND - All links you need to understand where we are at is below. If you are new to this start w/ #006-10 and then #006-14. After that, Please Read 1-A, 3-A, 4-A & 4-B. Please SPECIFICALLY READ 1-A and replay both charts to understand why we are so heavily bearish. If have been following, basically the only chance to for the bullish out come to happen was eliminated 3 days ago when gold bust the bull curve at a major inflection point.
DETAILS - Notable differences:
1) This chart has less detail bc I have less time.
2) The first major difference is I am quite confident now THAT 1670 WILL NOT HOLD ON 8/31-9/1.
3) The floor determined by respective bollingers for regression waves is 1640.
4) THERE WILL BE A 4.5% COUNTER TREND BOUNCE FROM 9/1-9/3 RIGHT AHEAD OF NFP, PAY ATTENTION IF YOU ARE SHORTING THIS!!
5) 1610, WILL GET HIT ON 9/6 OR 9/7.
6) Theoretically speaking, 1570 will get hit in the following 3-4 weeks.
7) Is there a binary outcome here? No. However, there is one scenario to change this outcome that is:
- first, this bear trend starts with a move on Monday from 1780-1790 and drops to 1735-1745 by Wednesday morning
- gold's ONLY CHANCE to break this scenario (which is now better than 80/20) is to break out on Monday (odds of this less than 10/90, probably closer to 5/95)
- in the break out situation gold MUST CLEAR 1830 AND HOLD THE REST OF THE WEEK, yeah I don't see that either
BACKGROUND - All links you need to understand where we are at is below. If you are new to this start w/ #006-10 and then #006-14. After that, Please Read 1-A, 3-A, 4-A & 4-B. Please SPECIFICALLY READ 1-A and replay both charts to understand why we are so heavily bearish. If have been following, basically the only chance to for the bullish out come to happen was eliminated 3 days ago when gold bust the bull curve at a major inflection point.
DETAILS - Notable differences:
1) This chart has less detail bc I have less time.
2) The first major difference is I am quite confident now THAT 1670 WILL NOT HOLD ON 8/31-9/1.
3) The floor determined by respective bollingers for regression waves is 1640.
4) THERE WILL BE A 4.5% COUNTER TREND BOUNCE FROM 9/1-9/3 RIGHT AHEAD OF NFP, PAY ATTENTION IF YOU ARE SHORTING THIS!!
5) 1610, WILL GET HIT ON 9/6 OR 9/7.
6) Theoretically speaking, 1570 will get hit in the following 3-4 weeks.
7) Is there a binary outcome here? No. However, there is one scenario to change this outcome that is:
- first, this bear trend starts with a move on Monday from 1780-1790 and drops to 1735-1745 by Wednesday morning
- gold's ONLY CHANCE to break this scenario (which is now better than 80/20) is to break out on Monday (odds of this less than 10/90, probably closer to 5/95)
- in the break out situation gold MUST CLEAR 1830 AND HOLD THE REST OF THE WEEK, yeah I don't see that either
تعليق:
BTW, black line is FOMC on SATURDAY and blue line is NFP.
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