using CPI & CLAIMS data as TRADE CONFLUENCE!
Really tricky market to make sense of right now because of how last weeks data (stronger job market - confirmed by NFP) was disregarded. This could mean:
1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse)
2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance
Here's what I think:
CPI has been cooling due to lower Oil price and higher interest rates (housing is a big component of CPI). Lower CPI shouldn't be a shock to anyone and is likely already priced in. For this reason, I think what matters most right now is what the Fed is focused on: SERVICES (wage) inflation and this is why I believe the main focus tomorrow is likely to be the services component of CPI and the CLAIMS data.
I think tomorrow's news is already priced in and we're likely to see a reversal in XAU.
1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse)
2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance
Here's what I think:
CPI has been cooling due to lower Oil price and higher interest rates (housing is a big component of CPI). Lower CPI shouldn't be a shock to anyone and is likely already priced in. For this reason, I think what matters most right now is what the Fed is focused on: SERVICES (wage) inflation and this is why I believe the main focus tomorrow is likely to be the services component of CPI and the CLAIMS data.
I think tomorrow's news is already priced in and we're likely to see a reversal in XAU.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.