THE WRITINGS ON THE WALL
The attached Chart is a revised and simplified version of my previous post that maps out the course of what I think will happen to the ASX S&P 200: XJO until this Bear Market hits an ultimate bottom.
To my horror, we just had what looks to be a fakeout to the downside of a very conspicuous Bear Pennant on Friday, followed by a suspiciously 'firm' green print today. I haven't seen the volumes yet as that info wont be available till tomorrow as an annoying feature of the piss poor, yet super expensive data provided by the ASX. Whilst the Market searches for a bottom I'd expect there will be confusing and contradictory signals amongst heightened volatility as par for the Course anyway.
Having liquidated most of my positions early last week I am aghast that there are now rumours circulating that the Fed might ease off the Inflation killing pedal (eeek!), hence the reason for this retarded Market's momentary optimism:
After a manipulated 9.1% CPI which vastly understates the true picture on the street and a PPI at 11% (!!!) , Jerome please, say it aint so..? As whatever you do the over paid geniuses at the RBA will dutifully follow your lead like demented puppy dogs with not a brain cell amongst them.
Give me Recession over Hyperinflation any day of the week and twice on Sundays! Where as the former is just a severe "go slow" for the entire Economy, the latter means complete and utter Societal collapse and the violence and political chaos that accompanies such a catastrophe. Pray that we don't get Hyperinflation. I have lived through 2 recessions in my lifetime, and granted I was much younger in the 70's and 90's, but I don't remember them as being particularly, extraordinarily difficult times..Hyperinflation? Well we all know how that ends.
Anyway, basing one's investment decisions on the insane monetary policies of the ultimate Socialist Control Device in the hope of Govt funny money riding to the rescue of one's portfolio is just slightly unreasonable and frankly CRAZY!...but hey, in #clownworld anything goes! An investor can only use their own logic to make Portfolio decisions otherwise investing really is no less gambling than a game of Roulette.
As such I'm putting the confusing, nascent breakout of the Bear Pennant down to Options expiry in the US on Friday causing a short squeeze, the swirling rumours of a dovish Fed epiphany and an over exuberant dip buying mentality that was conditioned into the Market post the Central Bank Puts that were executed after the COVID Crash to manipulate Markets to ATH's across the Planet over the last two years.
Sticking to my guns on the basis of rationality and logic (or maybe stubborn cognitive dissonance), the above Chart has one major change from the previous post and that is the inclusion of a major Bear Market Rally which I believe will come after the next leg down. I dont have any Puts in but I would hate to be wrong and it rallies from here having sold some positions last week at a decent loss.
Anyway, end of the day it doesn't really matter..."in the long run, we're all dead."
All the breasts and God Bless.
xxCM
To my horror, we just had what looks to be a fakeout to the downside of a very conspicuous Bear Pennant on Friday, followed by a suspiciously 'firm' green print today. I haven't seen the volumes yet as that info wont be available till tomorrow as an annoying feature of the piss poor, yet super expensive data provided by the ASX. Whilst the Market searches for a bottom I'd expect there will be confusing and contradictory signals amongst heightened volatility as par for the Course anyway.
Having liquidated most of my positions early last week I am aghast that there are now rumours circulating that the Fed might ease off the Inflation killing pedal (eeek!), hence the reason for this retarded Market's momentary optimism:
After a manipulated 9.1% CPI which vastly understates the true picture on the street and a PPI at 11% (!!!) , Jerome please, say it aint so..? As whatever you do the over paid geniuses at the RBA will dutifully follow your lead like demented puppy dogs with not a brain cell amongst them.
Give me Recession over Hyperinflation any day of the week and twice on Sundays! Where as the former is just a severe "go slow" for the entire Economy, the latter means complete and utter Societal collapse and the violence and political chaos that accompanies such a catastrophe. Pray that we don't get Hyperinflation. I have lived through 2 recessions in my lifetime, and granted I was much younger in the 70's and 90's, but I don't remember them as being particularly, extraordinarily difficult times..Hyperinflation? Well we all know how that ends.
Anyway, basing one's investment decisions on the insane monetary policies of the ultimate Socialist Control Device in the hope of Govt funny money riding to the rescue of one's portfolio is just slightly unreasonable and frankly CRAZY!...but hey, in #clownworld anything goes! An investor can only use their own logic to make Portfolio decisions otherwise investing really is no less gambling than a game of Roulette.
As such I'm putting the confusing, nascent breakout of the Bear Pennant down to Options expiry in the US on Friday causing a short squeeze, the swirling rumours of a dovish Fed epiphany and an over exuberant dip buying mentality that was conditioned into the Market post the Central Bank Puts that were executed after the COVID Crash to manipulate Markets to ATH's across the Planet over the last two years.
Sticking to my guns on the basis of rationality and logic (or maybe stubborn cognitive dissonance), the above Chart has one major change from the previous post and that is the inclusion of a major Bear Market Rally which I believe will come after the next leg down. I dont have any Puts in but I would hate to be wrong and it rallies from here having sold some positions last week at a decent loss.
Anyway, end of the day it doesn't really matter..."in the long run, we're all dead."
All the breasts and God Bless.
xxCM
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