Oil/Gold Short Setup: Inverted Cup & Handle (XLE/GLD)

After a steep decline in $XLE/ GLD , the chart has now formed the highlighted cup & handle.
Combine this with the observation that CPI YoY & Core PCE YoY ( USCCPI ) are in strong declining trends, which historically correlates negatively with oil (and oil-related equities) and positively with gold.

Executing on this idea: use a lower-vega strategy:

1. Low (2x max) leverage
   
2. Short XLE: directly short sell the shares, or buy inverse ETF ( DUG , ERY ).
   
3. Long GLD: Just buy GLD , or go 2x with $UGL. Make sure that it balances your XLE short after accounting for leverage.
   

تعليق:

(**Why low vega**: VIX seems to be suppressed at this time, which means that even if the price performs to target, your options strategy might severely underperform b/c the expected IVOL bump fails to materialize.)

تعليق:

I'm closing out this trade b/c oil crossed my stops.