YATRA: Spectacular Recovery, Chart of the Week Post Q1 FY26

From IPO Disaster to Cup & Handle Breakout: YATRA Spectacular Recovery Rally May Just Be Getting Started post Strong Q1 FY26 Numbers

As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate.

Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.

Price Action Analysis:

Chart Pattern Identification:
- Primary Pattern: Cup & Handle Formation (Bullish Reversal Pattern)
- Cup formation period: March 2024 to May 2025
- Handle formation: May 2025 to July 2025
- Breakout confirmation: August 2025 with strong volume spike

Key Price Levels:
- IPO Base Level: ₹125-130 (Initial listing range)
- All-Time High: ₹194.00 (Early 2024 peak)

- Major Support Levels:
- ₹118 (Cup base/IPO resistance turned support)
- ₹106 (Handle low)
- ₹90-95 (Previous resistance cluster)

- Major Resistance Levels:
- ₹160 (Next logical resistance)
- ₹180-185 (Pre-ATH resistance zone)
- ₹194 (All-time high)

Trend Analysis:
- Long-term Trend: Bullish reversal after prolonged downtrend
- Medium-term Trend: Strong bullish momentum post-breakout
- Short-term Trend: Consolidating after breakout with bullish bias

Volume Spread Analysis:

Volume Characteristics:
- Breakout Volume: Exceptional surge to 134.47M (significantly above average)
- Volume Confirmation: Strong institutional participation is evident
- Historical Volume Pattern: Low volume during handle formation followed by breakout explosion

Volume Spread:
- Volume surge indicates genuine breakout with institutional backing
- Previous accumulation phase visible during cup formation
- Current volume levels suggest sustained interest

Key Support & Resistance:

Dynamic Support Levels:
- Immediate Support: ₹125-130 (Breakout level/IPO base)
- Secondary Support: ₹118 (Cup rim level)
- Critical Support: ₹106 (Handle low - stop loss reference)

Resistance Levels:
- First: ₹160 (38.2% retracement from ATH)
- Second: ₹180-185 (Pre-ATH consolidation zone)
- Ultimate: ₹220-240 (Cup & Handle measured move)

Technical Indicators & Patterns:

Classical Patterns:
- Cup & Handle: Completed with successful breakout
- Rounding Bottom: Visible in the cup formation
- Ascending Triangle: Formed during handle consolidation

Key Technical Observations:
- Price action shows strong momentum post-breakout
- Previous IPO resistance at ₹125-130 now acting as support
- Breakout occurred with a gap-up opening, indicating strong sentiment

Sectoral Backdrop:

Online Travel Industry Overview:
- India Online Travel Market expected to reach USD 23.10 billion in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 7.76% to reach USD 33.90 billion by 2030
- Online travel booking service market in India expected to reach projected revenue of US$57,924.4 million by 2030 with a CAGR of 10.6%
- India's travel industry is valued at $178 billion, fueling economic growth with travel stocks offering lucrative investment opportunities

Market Position:
- Yatra Online Ltd. was identified as one of the major companies operating alongside MakeMyTrip, EaseMyTrip, and Cleartrip
- Strong competitive position in a growing market
- Recovery phase post-pandemic showing robust growth trajectory

Fundamental Backdrop:

Financial Metrics:
- Market Cap: 2,223 Crore, Revenue: 900 Cr, Profit: 49 Cr (TTM)
- Promoter Holding: 64.46% (Strong management commitment)
- Trading at 2.84 times book value at 45.8 times P/E

Operational Assessment:
- The company has a low return on equity of 2.90% over the last 3 years
- Profitability achieved, indicating operational efficiency improvement
- Revenue growth trajectory supported by sector tailwinds

Growth Lever:
- Beneficiary of India's domestic tourism boom
- Digital transformation in travel booking
- Post-pandemic recovery in the travel sector
- The government's focus on tourism development

Market Outlook & Catalysts:

Positive Catalysts:
- Travel & Tourism market in India projected to grow by 8.07% (2025-2029)
- Increasing domestic travel penetration
- Corporate travel recovery
- Digital adoption acceleration

Key Risk Factors:
- Intense competition from larger players
- Seasonal business variations
- Economic slowdown impact on discretionary spending
- Regulatory changes in the travel sector

Key Monitoring Points:
- Sustained holding above the ₹125 breakout level
- Volume sustainability in the coming sessions
- Broader market conditions and sector rotation
- Company's Next Few quarterly results and guidance updates.

Full Coverage on my Newsletter this Week

Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR.
NO RECO. For Buy/Sell.

📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable.

🙏FOLLOW for more
👍BOOST if you found it useful.
✍️COMMENT below with your views.

Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback.

As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes, it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate.

Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.