4MA / 4MA[1] Forward Projection with 4 SD Forecast Bands

4MA / 4MA[1] Projection + 4 SD Bands + Cross Table is a forward-projection tool built around a simple moving average pair: the 4-period SMA (MA4) and its 1-bar lagged value (MA4[1]). It takes a prior MA behavior pattern, projects that structure forward, and wraps the projected mean path with four Standard Deviation (SD) bands to visualize probable future price ranges.

This indicator is designed to help you anticipate:

Where the MA structure is likely to travel next

How wide the “expected” future price corridor may be

Where a future MA4 vs MA4[1] crossover is most likely to occur

When the real (live) crossover actually prints on the chart

What you see on the chart
1) Live moving averages (current market)

MA4 tracks the short-term mean of price.

MA4[1] is simply the previous bar’s MA4 value (a 1-bar lag).

Their relationship (MA4 above/below MA4[1]) gives a clean, minimal read on trend alignment and directional bias.

2) Projected MA path (forward curve)

A forward “ghost” of the MA structure is drawn ahead of price. This projected curve represents the indicator’s best estimate of how the moving average structure may evolve if the market continues to rhyme with the selected historical behavior window.

3) 4 Standard Deviation bands (predictive future price ranges)

Surrounding the projected mean path are four SD envelopes. Think of these as forecast corridors:

Inner bands = tighter “expected” range

Outer bands = wider “stress / extreme” range

These bands are not a guarantee—rather, they’re a structured way to visualize “how far price can reasonably swing” around the projected mean based on observed volatility.

4) Vertical projection lines (most probable cross zone)

Within the projected region you’ll see vertical lines running through the bands. These lines mark the most probable zone where MA4 and MA4[1] are expected to cross in the projection.

In plain terms:

The projected MAs are two curves.

When those curves are forecasted to intersect, the script marks the intersection region with a vertical line.

This gives you a forward “timing window” for a potential MA shift.

5) Cross Table (top-right)

The table is your confirmation layer. It reports:

Current MA4 value

Current MA4[1] value

Whether MA4 is above or below MA4[1]

The most recent BUY / SELL cross event

When a real, live crossover happens on the actual chart:

It registers as BUY (MA4 crosses above MA4[1])

Or SELL (MA4 crosses below MA4[1])
…and the table updates immediately so you can confirm the event without guessing.

How to use it
Practical workflow

Use the projected SD bands as future range context

If price is projected to sit comfortably inside inner bands, the market is behaving “normally.”

If price reaches outer bands, you’re in a higher-volatility / stretched scenario.

Use vertical lines as a “watch zone”

Vertical lines do not force a trade.

They act like a forward “heads-up”: this is the most likely window for an MA crossover to occur if the projection holds.

Use the table for confirmation

When the crossover happens for real, the table is your confirmation signal.

Combine it with structure (support/resistance, trendlines, market context) rather than trading it in isolation.

Notes and best practices

This is a projection tool: it helps visualize a structured forward hypothesis, not a certainty.

SD bands are best used as forecast corridors (risk framing, range planning, and expectation management).

The table is the execution/confirmation layer: it tells you what the MAs are doing now.