Liquidity Regime Oscillator

The Liquidity Signal Line is a macro-driven confirmation tool designed to capture the underlying global liquidity regime in a single, smoothed oscillator. It measures the combined directional flow of monetary and financial conditions using high-impact macro data: Federal Reserve assets (WALCL), Treasury General Account (TGA), and the Overnight Reverse Repo facility (RRP) – adjusted by key market proxies such as the U.S. Dollar Index, credit spreads (HYG/LQD), and equity risk appetite (SPHB/SPHQ). These components are normalized, weighted, and then double-smoothed into a stable signal that translates complex liquidity dynamics into a simple 0–100 scale.

Liquidity expansion provides fuel for risk assets, while contraction drains leverage and risk appetite. The Signal Line acts as a confirmation overlay for trend and allocation strategies, showing whether systemic liquidity is broadly supportive or restrictive. Readings above 50 indicate an expansionary environment (risk-on bias), below 50 a contractionary one (risk-off bias). Because the calculation uses higher-timeframe macro data, it can be displayed on any chart to give traders a consistent, regime-aware signal that bridges macro policy and technical execution.