Bitcoin Gold Fair Value Model | FREE

Bitcoin Gold Fair Value Model | FREE

This script presents a quantitative model that explores the historical relationship between Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Gold (TVC:GOLD).
It estimates Bitcoin’s fair value projection based on the price of gold, using a rolling regression model calculated over a user-defined lookback period (default: 1000 days).

📘 How It Works

• The model fits a simple linear regression of Bitcoin’s daily close price versus Gold’s daily close price.
  
• From this relationship, it computes a projected Bitcoin price based on today’s gold value, plotted forward by a chosen number of days (default: 65).
  
• Confidence ranges (±1 standard deviation and 95% interval) help visualize the uncertainty around the projection.
  
• A statistical panel displays the projected price, range estimates, and R² value, indicating the strength of correlation between the two assets.
  

⚙️ Features

• Rolling regression using historical BTC and Gold data.
  
• Forward fair-value projection line (customizable projection period).
  
• 1σ (standard deviation) and 95% confidence bands.
  
• On-chart statistical summary with current model values.
  
• Real-time updates when new daily data becomes available.
  

📊 How to Use

• Recommended for use on the daily timeframe with the INDEX:BTCUSD symbol.
  
• The model provides a statistical estimate of Bitcoin’s price relative to gold trends, not a trading signal.
  
• The R² value can be used to assess the current strength of correlation - higher R² suggests a more stable relationship, while lower values indicate weaker or changing dynamics.
  

⚠️ Important Notes

• This indicator is intended for educational and analytical purposes only.
  
• It does not predict prices or provide financial advice.
  
• Relationships between assets can and do change over time.
  
• Always perform your own research and use additional tools for confirmation.