Volatility Regime Navigator

قبل ساعتين

A guide to understanding VIX, VVIX, VIX9D, VVIX/VIX, and the Composite Risk Score

1. Purpose of the Indicator

This dashboard summarizes short-term market volatility conditions using four core volatility metrics.

It produces:

• Individual readings
• A combined Regime classification
• A Composite Risk Score (0–100)
• A simplified Risk Bucket (Bullish → Stress)

Use this to evaluate market fragility, drift potential, tail-risk, and overall risk-on/off conditions.

This is especially useful for intraday ES/NQ trading, expected-move context, and understanding when breakouts or fades have edge.

2. The Four Core Volatility Inputs

(1) VIX — Baseline Equity Volatility
• < 16: Complacent (easy drift-up, but watch for fragility)
• 16–22: Healthy, normal volatility → ideal trading conditions
• > 22: Stress rising
• > 26: Tail-risk / risk-off environment

(2) VIX9D — Short-Term Event Vol
Measures 9-day implied volatility. Reacts to immediate news/events.
• < 14: Strongly bullish (drift regime)
• 14–17: Bullish to neutral
• 17–20: Event risk building
• > 20: Short-term stress / caution

(3) VVIX — Volatility of VIX (fragility index)
Tracks volatility of volatility.
• < 100: “Bullish, Bullish” — very low fragility
• 100–120: Normal
• 120–140: Fragile
• > 140: Stress, hedging pressure

(4) VVIX/VIX Ratio — Microstructure Risk-On/Risk-Off
One of the most sensitive indicators of market confidence.
• 5.0–6.5: Strongest “normal/bullish” zone
• < 5.0: Bottom-stalking / fear regime
• > 6.5: Complacency → vulnerable to reversals
• > 7.5: Fragile / top-risk

3. Composite Risk Score (0–100)
The dashboard converts all four inputs into a single score.

Score Interpretation
• 80–100 → Bullish - Drift regime. Shallow pullbacks. Upside favored.
• 60–79 → Normal - Healthy tape. Balanced two-way trading.
• 40–59 → Fragile - Choppy, failed breakouts, thinner liquidity.
• 20–39 → Risk-Off - Downside tails active. Favor fades and defensive behavior.
• < 20 → Stress - Crisis or event-driven tape. Avoid longs.

Score updates every bar.

4. Regime Label
Independent of the composite score, the script provides a Regime classification based on combinations of VIX + VVIX/VIX:

• Bullish+ → Buying is easy, tape lifts passively
• Normal → Cleanest and most tradable conditions
• Complacent → Top-risk; be careful chasing upside
• Mixed → Signals conflict; chop potential
• Bottom Stalk → High VIX, low VVIX/VIX (capitulation signatures)

A trailing “+” or “*” indicates additional bullish or caution overlays from VIX9D/VVIX.

5. How to Use the Dashboard in Trading

When Bullish (Score ≥ 80):
• Expect drift-up behavior
• Downside limited unless catalyst hits
• Structure favors breakouts and trend continuation
• Mean reversion trades have lower expectancy

When Normal (Score 60–79):
• The “playbook regime”
• Breakouts and mean reversion both valid
• Best overall trading environment

When Fragile (Score 40–59):
• Expect chop
• Breakouts fail
• Take quicker profits
• Avoid overleveraged directional bets

When Risk-Off (20–39):
• Favor fades of strength
• Downside tails activate
• Trend-following short setups gain edge
• Respect volatility bands

When Stress (<20):
• Avoid long exposure
• Do not chase dips
• Expect violent, news-sensitive behavior
• Position sizing becomes critical

6. Quick Summary
• VIX = weather
• VIX9D = short-term storm radar
• VVIX = foundation stability
• VVIX/VIX = confidence vs fragility
• Composite Score = overall regime health
• Risk Bucket = simple “what do I do?” label

This dashboard gives traders a high-confidence, low-noise view of equity volatility conditions in real time.

قبل ساعتين

ملاحظات الأخبار

A guide to understanding VIX, VVIX, VIX9D, VVIX/VIX, and the Composite Risk Score

1. Purpose of the Indicator
This dashboard summarizes short-term market volatility conditions using four core volatility metrics.

It produces:
• Individual readings
• A combined Regime classification
• A Composite Risk Score (0–100)
• A simplified Risk Bucket (Bullish → Stress)

Use this to evaluate market fragility, drift potential, tail-risk, and overall risk-on/off conditions.

This is especially useful for intraday trading, expected-move context, and understanding when breakouts or fades have edge.

2. The Four Core Volatility Inputs

(1) VIX — Baseline Equity Volatility
• < 16: Complacent (easy drift-up, but watch for fragility)
• 16–22: Healthy, normal volatility → ideal trading conditions
• > 22: Stress rising
• > 26: Tail-risk / risk-off environment

(2) VIX9D — Short-Term Event Vol
Measures 9-day implied volatility. Reacts to immediate news/events.
• < 14: Strongly bullish (drift regime)
• 14–17: Bullish to neutral
• 17–20: Event risk building
• > 20: Short-term stress / caution

(3) VVIX — Volatility of VIX (fragility index)
Tracks volatility of volatility.
• < 100: “Bullish, Bullish” — very low fragility
• 100–120: Normal
• 120–140: Fragile
• > 140: Stress, hedging pressure

(4) VVIX/VIX Ratio — Microstructure Risk-On/Risk-Off
One of the most sensitive indicators of market confidence.
• 5.0–6.5: Strongest “normal/bullish” zone
• < 5.0: Bottom-stalking / fear regime
• > 6.5: Complacency → vulnerable to reversals
• > 7.5: Fragile / top-risk

3. Composite Risk Score (0–100)
The dashboard converts all four inputs into a single score.

Score Interpretation
• 80–100 → Bullish - Drift regime. Shallow pullbacks. Upside favored.
• 60–79 → Normal - Healthy tape. Balanced two-way trading.
• 40–59 → Fragile - Choppy, failed breakouts, thinner liquidity.
• 20–39 → Risk-Off - Downside tails active. Favor fades and defensive behavior.
• < 20 → Stress - Crisis or event-driven tape. Avoid longs.

Score updates every bar.

4. Regime Label
Independent of the composite score, the script provides a Regime classification based on combinations of VIX + VVIX/VIX:
• Bullish+ → Buying is easy, tape lifts passively
• Normal → Cleanest and most tradable conditions
• Complacent → Top-risk; be careful chasing upside
• Mixed → Signals conflict; chop potential
• Bottom Stalk → High VIX, low VVIX/VIX (capitulation signatures)
A trailing “+” or “*” indicates additional bullish or caution overlays from VIX9D/VVIX.

5. How to Use the Dashboard in Trading

When Bullish (Score ≥ 80):
• Expect drift-up behavior
• Downside limited unless catalyst hits
• Structure favors breakouts and trend continuation
• Mean reversion trades have lower expectancy

When Normal (Score 60–79):
• The “playbook regime”
• Breakouts and mean reversion both valid
• Best overall trading environment

When Fragile (Score 40–59):
• Expect chop
• Breakouts fail
• Take quicker profits
• Avoid overleveraged directional bets

When Risk-Off (20–39):
• Favor fades of strength
• Downside tails activate
• Trend-following short setups gain edge
• Respect volatility bands

When Stress (<20):
• Avoid long exposure
• Do not chase dips
• Expect violent, news-sensitive behavior
• Position sizing becomes critical

6. Quick Summary
• VIX = weather
• VIX9D = short-term storm radar
• VVIX = foundation stability
• VVIX/VIX = confidence vs fragility
• Composite Score = overall regime health
• Risk Bucket = simple “what do I do?”

This dashboard gives traders a high-confidence, low-noise view of equity volatility conditions in real time.

قبل ساعة واحدة

ملاحظات الأخبار

A guide to understanding VIX, VVIX, VIX9D, VVIX/VIX, and the Composite Risk Score

1. Purpose of the Indicator
This dashboard summarizes short-term market volatility conditions using four core volatility metrics.

It produces:
• Individual readings
• A combined Regime classification
• A Composite Risk Score (0–100)
• A simplified Risk Bucket (Bullish → Stress)

Use this to evaluate market fragility, drift potential, tail-risk, and overall risk-on/off conditions.

This is especially useful for intraday trading, expected-move context, and understanding when breakouts or fades have edge.

2. The Four Core Volatility Inputs

(1) VIX — Baseline Equity Volatility
• < 16: Complacent (easy drift-up, but watch for fragility)
• 16–22: Healthy, normal volatility → ideal trading conditions
• > 22: Stress rising
• > 26: Tail-risk / risk-off environment

(2) VIX9D — Short-Term Event Vol
Measures 9-day implied volatility. Reacts to immediate news/events.
• < 14: Strongly bullish (drift regime)
• 14–17: Bullish to neutral
• 17–20: Event risk building
• > 20: Short-term stress / caution

(3) VVIX — Volatility of VIX (fragility index)
Tracks volatility of volatility.
• < 100: “Bullish, Bullish” — very low fragility
• 100–120: Normal
• 120–140: Fragile
• > 140: Stress, hedging pressure

(4) VVIX/VIX Ratio — Microstructure Risk-On/Risk-Off
One of the most sensitive indicators of market confidence.
• 5.0–6.5: Strongest “normal/bullish” zone
• < 5.0: Bottom-stalking / fear regime
• > 6.5: Complacency → vulnerable to reversals
• > 7.5: Fragile / top-risk

3. Composite Risk Score (0–100)
The dashboard converts all four inputs into a single score.

Score Interpretation
• 80–100 → Bullish - Drift regime. Shallow pullbacks. Upside favored.
• 60–79 → Normal - Healthy tape. Balanced two-way trading.
• 40–59 → Fragile - Choppy, failed breakouts, thinner liquidity.
• 20–39 → Risk-Off - Downside tails active. Favor fades and defensive behavior.
• < 20 → Stress - Crisis or event-driven tape. Avoid longs.
Score updates every bar.

4. Regime Label
Independent of the composite score, the script provides a Regime classification based on combinations of VIX + VVIX/VIX:

• Bullish+ → Buying is easy, tape lifts passively
• Normal → Cleanest and most tradable conditions
• Complacent → Top-risk; be careful chasing upside
• Mixed → Signals conflict; chop potential
• Bottom Stalk → High VIX, low VVIX/VIX (capitulation signatures)
A trailing “+” or “*” indicates additional bullish or caution overlays from VIX9D/VVIX.

5. How to Use the Dashboard in Trading

When Bullish (Score ≥ 80):
• Expect drift-up behavior
• Downside limited unless catalyst hits
• Structure favors breakouts and trend continuation
• Mean reversion trades have lower expectancy

When Normal (Score 60–79):
• The “playbook regime”
• Breakouts and mean reversion both valid
• Best overall trading environment

When Fragile (Score 40–59):
• Expect chop
• Breakouts fail
• Take quicker profits
• Avoid overleveraged directional bets

When Risk-Off (20–39):
• Favor fades of strength
• Downside tails activate
• Trend-following short setups gain edge
• Respect volatility bands

When Stress (<20):
• Avoid long exposure
• Do not chase dips
• Expect violent, news-sensitive behavior
• Position sizing becomes critical

6. Quick Summary
• VIX = weather
• VIX9D = short-term storm radar
• VVIX = foundation stability
• VVIX/VIX = confidence vs fragility
• Composite Score = overall regime health
• Risk Bucket = simple “what do I do?” label

This dashboard gives traders a high-confidence, low-noise view of equity volatility conditions in real time.