COT-index range

A graph showing the commercials (part of COT-data) positioning in relation to its own range, X periods back. I usually choose the look-back period to equal approximately one year. This will be around 52 on a weekly chart and 250 on a daily chart.

In my opinion a high data-point for the commercials is bullish and vice versa. But instead of only looking att absolute values I now look more at how the commercials are positioned compared to the previous 12 och 6 months.

Example:
a) if COT-index range = 0.8, then the commercials are in the 80th percentile for this specific look-back period, i.e. the commercials has only been more bullish 20% of the time and more bearish 80% of the time.

b) a) if COT-index range = 0.5, then the commercials are in the 50th percentile for this specific look-back period, i.e. the commercials has been more bullish 50% of the time and more bearish 50% of the time.

c) if COT-index range = 0.2, then the commercials are in the 20th percentile for this specific look-back period, i.e. the commercials has been more bullish 80% of the time and more bearish 20% of the time.

In other words, a high reading is bullish and a low reading is bearish.