VaRz BTC/Gold Risk Meter

VaRz Risk Meter (BTC vs Risk-On & Gold Safe-Haven Proxy)

The VaRz Risk Meter is a macro sentiment oscillator designed to measure Bitcoin’s relative strength and directional bias using key risk-appetite and safe-haven flows.

Indicator Components

VIX → Market fear & volatility benchmark

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) → Primary risk-on proxy (growth/tech capital flow)

Gold (XAUUSD) → Safe-haven strength alternative to USD index

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) → Used only for normalization reference, not bias calculation

Core Logic

All assets are normalized on a 0–100 scale using a 100-period rolling window to create a balanced comparison across markets.

The Bitcoin Macro Bias Histogram is calculated as:

NASDAQ strength − VIX fear − Gold safe-haven strength


This produces a macro directional regime for Bitcoin:

Market Regimes Interpretation
Indicator State Meaning for BTC
NASDAQ high + VIX low + Gold weak Risk-On environment → Bullish for Bitcoin
Gold strong + VIX rising + NASDAQ weak Risk-Off / flight to safety → Bearish pressure on BTC
All assets near 50 with no trend Neutral / Sideways → Macro indecision
How to Use

This is not a direct entry signal, but a macro bias filter

Best combined with:
Market Structure, Liquidity zones, Orderflow, Volume analysis, and Elliott Wave context

Bias becomes more reliable on higher timeframes (1W, 1M) but works on any chart

Key Insight

Bitcoin behaves as a hybrid risk asset. This indicator helps track when capital is:

Rotating into risk markets (favorable for BTC)
or

Seeking protection in gold and volatility hedges (unfavorable for BTC)

The histogram visually maps these shifts to give traders a clear macro regime awareness in one window.