US Market Long Horizon Momentum Summary in one paragraph
US Market Long Horizon Momentum is a trend following strategy for US index ETFs and futures built around a single eighteen month time series momentum measure. It helps you stay long during persistent bull regimes and step aside or flip short when long term momentum turns negative.
Scope and intent
• Markets. Large cap US equity indices, liquid US index ETFs, index futures
• Timeframes. 4h/ Daily charts
• Default demo used in the publication. SPY on 4h timeframe chart
• Purpose. Provide a minimal long bias index timing model that can reduce deep drawdowns and capture major cycles without parameter mining
• Limits. This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles only
Originality and usefulness
• Unique concept or fusion. One unscaled multiple month log return of an external benchmark symbol drives all entries and exits, with optional volatility targeting as a single risk control switch.
• Failure mode addressed. Fully passive buy and hold ignores the sign of long horizon momentum and can sit through multi year drawdowns. This script offers a way to step down risk in prolonged negative momentum without chasing short term noise.
• Testability. All parameters are visible in Inputs and the momentum series is plotted so users can verify every regime change in the Tester and on price history.
• Portable yardstick. The log return over a fixed window is a unit that can be applied to any liquid symbol with daily data.
Method overview in plain language
The method looks at how far the benchmark symbol has moved in log return terms over an eighteen month window in our example. If that long horizon return is positive the strategy allows a long stance on the traded symbol. If it is negative and shorts are enabled the strategy can flip short, otherwise it goes flat. There is an optional realised volatility estimate on the traded symbol that can scale position size toward a target annual volatility, but in the default configuration the model uses unit leverage and only the sign of momentum matters.
Base measures
Return basis. The core yardstick is the natural log of close divided by the close eighteen months ago on the benchmark symbol. Daily log returns of the traded symbol feed the realised volatility estimate when volatility targeting is enabled.
Components
• Component one Momentum eighteen months. Log of benchmark close divided by its close mom_lookback bars ago. Its sign defines the trend regime. No extra smoothing is applied beyond the long window itself.
• Component two Realised volatility optional. Standard deviation of daily log returns on the traded symbol over sixty three days. Annualised by the square root of 252. Used only when volatility targeting is enabled.
• Optional component Volatility targeting. Converts target annual volatility and realised volatility into a leverage factor clipped by a maximum leverage setting.
Fusion rule
The model uses a simple gate. First compute the sign of eighteen month log momentum on the benchmark symbol. Optionally compute leverage from volatility. The sign decides whether the strategy wants to be long, short, or flat. Leverage only rescales position size when enabled and does not change direction.
Signal rule
• Long suggestion. When eighteen month log momentum on the benchmark symbol is greater than zero, the strategy wants to be long.
• Short suggestion. When that log momentum is less than zero and shorts are allowed, the strategy wants to be short. If shorts are disabled it stays flat instead.
• Wait state. When the log momentum is exactly zero or history is not long enough the strategy stays flat.
• In position. In practice the strategy sits IN LONG while the sign stays positive and flips to IN SHORT or flat only when the sign changes.
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Momentum Lookback (months). Controls the horizon of the log return on the benchmark symbol. Typical range 6 to 24 months. Raising it makes the model slower and more selective. Lowering it makes it more reactive and sensitive to medium term noise.
• Symbol. External symbol used for the momentum calculation, SPY by default. Changing it lets you time other indices or run signals from a benchmark while trading a correlated instrument.
Logic
• Allow Shorts. When true the strategy will open short positions during negative momentum regimes. When false it will stay flat whenever momentum is negative. Practical setting is tied to whether you use a margin account or an ETF that supports shorting.
Internal risk parameters (not exposed as inputs in this version) are:
• Target Vol (annual). Target annual volatility for volatility targeting, default 0.2.
• Vol Lookback (days). Window for realised volatility, default 63 trading days.
• Max Leverage. Cap on leverage when volatility targeting is enabled, default 2.
Usage recipes
Swing continuation
• Signal timeframe. Use the daily chart.
• Benchmark symbol. Leave at SPY for US equity index exposure.
• Momentum lookback. Eighteen months as a default, with twelve months as an alternative preset for a faster swing bias.
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital. 100000
• Base currency. USD
• Default order size method. 5% of the total capital in this example
• Pyramiding. 0
• Commission. 0.03 percent
• Slippage. 3 ticks
• Process orders on close. On
• Bar magnifier. Off
• Recalculate after order is filled. Off
• Calc on every tick. Off
• All request.security calls use lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_off
Realism and responsible publication
The strategy is for education and research only. It does not claim any guaranteed edge or future performance. All results in Strategy Tester are hypothetical and depend on the data vendor, costs, and slippage assumptions. Intrabar motion is not modeled inside daily bars so extreme moves and gaps can lead to fills that differ from live trading. The logic is built for standard candles and should not be used on synthetic chart types for execution decisions.
Performance is sensitive to regime structure in the US equity market, which may change over time. The strategy does not protect against single day crash risk inside bars and does not model gap risk explicitly. Past behavior of SPY and the momentum effect does not guarantee future persistence.
Honest limitations and failure modes
• Long sideways regimes with small net change over eighteen months can lead to whipsaw around the zero line.
• Very sharp V shaped reversals after deep declines will often be missed because the model waits for momentum to turn positive again.
• The sample size in a full SPY history is small because regime changes are infrequent, so any test must be interpreted as indicative rather than statistically precise.
• The model is highly dependent on the chosen lookback. Users should test nearby values and validate that behavior is qualitatively stable.
Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. You are responsible for your own decisions. Always test on historical data and in simulation with realistic costs before any live use.
النماذج الشرائية
highs&lowsone of my first strategy: highs&lows
This strategy takes the highest high and the lowest low of a specified timeframe and specified bar count.
It will then takes the average between these two extremes to create a center line.
This creates a range of high middle and low.
Then the strategy takes the current market movement
which is the direct average(no specified timeframe and specified bar count) of the current high and low.
Using this "current market movement" within the range of high middle and low it determins when to buy and then sell the asset.
*********note***************
-this strategy is (bullish)
-works good with most futures assets that have volatility/ decent movement
(might add more details if I forget any)
(work in progress)
RSI Average Swing BotThis is a modified RSI version using as a source a big length(50 candles) and an average of all types of sources for candle calculations such as ohlc4, close, high, open, hlc3 and hl2.
In this case we are going to use a 0-1 scale for an easier calculation, where 0.5 is going to be our middle point.
Above 0.5 we consider a bullish possibility.
Below 0.5 we consider a bearish possibility.
I made a small example bot using that initial logic, together with 2 exit points for long or short positions.
If there are any questions, let me know !
when bull D timeframeEcco a voi la mia strategia basata su atr con implementazioni personali per definire facilmente la condizione di mercato su btc e eth, come potete vedere punta ad identificare solo le salite più importati ignorando i falsi segnali che avvengono nelle fasi di bear market (o di incertezza). Da utilizzare con timeframe D.
Condivido una versione disponibile e funzionante gratuitamente fino al 31/12/2022 dopo tale data lo script tornerà a pagamento.
Here is my strategy based on atr with personal implementations to easily define the market condition on btc and eth, as you can see it aims to identify only the most important climbs ignoring the false signals that occur in the bear market (or uncertainty) phases. For use with timeframe D. I share a version available and working for free until 31/12/2022 after that date the script will return not for free.
Stay Tuned
MACD + BB + RSI Strategy [Alorse]A very simple and highly effective strategy that combines 3 famous indicators:
MACD
Bollinger Bands
RSI
Entry conditions are:
The MACD line crosses over the signal line.
RSI less than 50
Price below the BB baseline
Exit conditions are:
RSI greater than 70
Closing price higher than the upper BB
Or when the price hits the Stop Loss defined by you (Feature).
Macd Divergence + MTF EMA MACD Divergence + Multi Time Frame EMA
This Strategy uses 3 indicators: the Macd and two emas in different time frames
The configuration of the strategy is:
Macd standar configuration (12, 26, 9) in 1H resolution
10 periods ema, in 1H resolution
5 periods ema, in 15 minutes resolution
We use the two emas to filter for long and short positions.
If 15 minutes ema is above 1H ema, we look for long positions
If 15 minutes ema is below 1H ema, we look for short positions
We can use an aditional filter using a 100 days ema, so when the 15' and 1H emas are above the daily ema we take long positions
Using this filter improves the strategy
We wait for Macd indicator to form a divergence between histogram and price
If we have a bullish divergence, and 15 minutes ema is above 1H ema, we wait for macd line to cross above signal line and we open a long position
If we have a bearish divergence, and 15 minutes ema is below 1H ema, we wait for macd line to cross below signal line and we open a short position
We close both position after a cross in the oposite direction of macd line and signal line
Also we can configure a Take profit parameter and a trailing stop loss
Vwap mtf Swing Stock StrategyThis is a trending strategy designed for stock market, especially long trending assets such as TSLA, NIO, AMAZON and so on.
Its made of volatility bands and weekly VWAP, in this case daily and weekly.
This strategy has been adapted to go long only.
Rules for entry
For long , we want to enter close of a candle is above vwap weekly, and at the same time the close of a candle cross-under the lower volatility band.
For exit , we want to enter close of a candle is below vwap weekly, and at the same time the close of a candle cross-over the upper volatility band.
This strategy does not have a risk management inside, so use it with caution.
If you have any questions, let me know !
Bear & Bull Zone Signal StrategySince I love to mix and match, here is something fresh and that actually works on the breakout of Ethereum without losing your ass on lagging indicators.
It blends some of the nice parts of my previous scripts while moving to big boy pants with a twist on the Fibonacci retracement using SMA and EMA at multiple levels to do a sanity check.
Is it too good to be true? Nope, just what happens when a Solution Architect starts messing around with crypto and applies engineering and mathematics to the mix. You get a strategy that really doesn't have high profit losses when you tweak it just the right way.
What's the right tweak you ask?
1. Start with a 30 minute timeframe and set your window start date to the date the market began the bear or bull run
2. Make sure you can see your strategy performance window (not the graph one)
3. Set Stop Loss and Target Profit to 50%
4. Use your mouse wheel or up and down arrows and mess around with the RSI, go down one at a time but no lower than 7. Whichever value displayed the highest long or short gain is the one to pick.
5. Now select long or short only based on whichever one shows the highest gain.
6. Now go to K and D, leave K as 3 and check what happens when D is 4 or 5. Leave D at the value that gives you the highest gain.
7. Now go to EMA Fast and Slow Lengths. Leave Fast at 5 and check what happens when the Slow is moved up to 11 or 12, do the gains go up. If not, check what happens when Slow is moved down to 9, 8, or 7. Whichever gives you the highest gain, leave it there. Now go mess with the fast length, keep in mind that fast must always be less than slow. So check values down to 3 and up to 6. Same concept, mo money...leave it be.
8. Now go mess with the Target Profit, I start at 5, hit enter, then go to 7, hit enter, then 9...up by 2 until I get to 21 to make sure I don't hastily pick a low one and always keep in mind between which values the gain switched from high to low. For example, in this example I published at 11 it was $5k and at 13 it was $3700 for the gains. So after I got up to 21 I went back to 11 and started going up by 0.01 steps until the value dropped, which was at 11.19 so I set it at 11.18.
9. Now stop loss is trickier, you've maximized the gains, which means if you set the stop loss at a low value you will sacrifice gains. Typically by this point your loss is less than 10% with this script. So, my approach is to find the value where the stop loss doesn't change what I've tweaked already. In this example, I did the same start at 5 and go up by 2 and saw that when I went to 17 it stopped changing. So I started going back down by 0.5 and saw at 15.5 the gains went lower again. Now I started going back up in steps of 0.01 and at 15.98 it went back to the high gain I already tweaked for. I kept stop loss there and unleashed the strategy on ETH.
So far so good, no bad trades and it's been behaving pretty well.
ATR with EOM and VORTEXThis is a strategy, designed for long trends for stock and crypto market.
Its made of ATR for volatility, EOM for volume and VORTEX for the trend direction.
In this case on the ATR, I applied an EMA to check if current position is above the EMA -> bull trend, below ema -> bear trend
For EOM I am using the positive and negative value scale, if its positive we are in a bull movement, otherwise a bear movement.
Lastly for VORTEX, I took the min and max, and made an average, after that I am using the average and compare it with 1 value. Above 1 -> bull, belowe 1-> bear.
This strategy only goes long.
If you have any questions, let me know.
Scalping Dips On Trend (by Coinrule)Coinrule's Community is an excellent source of inspiration for our trading strategies.
In these months of Bull Market, our traders opted mostly on buy-the-dips strategies, which resulted in great returns recently. But there has been an element that turned out to be the cause for deep division among the Community.
Is it advisable or not to use a stop-loss during a Bull Market?
This strategy comes with a large stop-loss to offer a safer alternative for those that are not used to trade with a downside protection.
Entry
The strategy buys only when the price is above the Moving Average 50 , making it less risky to buy the dip, which is set to 2%.
The preferred time frame is 1-hour.
The stop-loss is set to be quite loose to increase the chances of closing the trade in profit, yet protecting from unexpected larger drawdowns that could undermine the allocation's liquidity.
Exit
Stop loss: 10%
Take Profit: 3%
In times of Bull Market, such a trading system has a very high percentage of trades closed in profit (ranging between 70% to 80%), which makes it still overall profitable to have a stop-loss three times larger than the take profit.
Pro tip: use a larger stop-loss only when you expect to close in profit most of the trades!
The strategy assumes each order to trade 30% of the available capital and opens a trade at a time. A trading fee of 0.1% is taken into account.
Sentiment analysis combined with multiple MA types for CRYPTOThis is a strategy made from price action combined with multiple moving averages calculations used for the candle histograms.
In this case we calculate the bear and the bull candles based on the next criteria :
Bull candle : ((CLOSE - LOW ) + (HIGH -OPEN) / 2 ) / Candle length
Bear candle: ((HIGH - CLOSE ) + (OPEN-LOW ) / 2 ) / Candle length
Once we have the candle we use moving average to smooth the process, and then we calculate the differece between the bull ma and bear ma.
The result is going to be our histogram.
Once we have the histogram we can start setting up rules for entries and exit.
If you have any question, please let me know!
Strategy Follow Line MTF Any MM AverageThe objective is only to evaluate different configurations of the indicator "Follow Line MTF Any MM Average".
The strategy does not have position management, it's very basic, this indicator should be used to see trend, range zones, evaluate the best areas to enter the market, use higher time frames to confirm a direction can be useful.
I do not recommend using only this indicator to trade, because you can lose all your money if you do not know what you are doing.
I hope you find it useful.
Successes
Strategy Follow Line Indicator The objective is only to evaluate different configurations, I do not recommend using only this indicator to trade, because you can lose all your money if you do not know what you are doing.
I hope you find it useful.
Successes
StarbuxI made this in starbucks .
Bullish hammer trading signal algorithm
using MACD for trend determination and holding period.
RSI and Smoothed RSI Bull Div Strategy [BigBitsIO]This strategy focuses on finding a low RSI value, then targeting a low Smoothed RSI value while the price is below the low RSI in the lookback period to trigger a buy signal.
Features Take Profit, Stop Loss, and Plot Target inputs. As well as many inputs to manage how the RSI and Smoothed RSI are configured within the strategy.
Explanation of all the inputs
Take Profit %: % change in price from position entry where strategy takes profit
Stop Loss %: % change in price from position entry where strategy stops losses
RSI Lookback Period: # of candles used to calculate RSI
Buy Below Lowest Low In RSI Divergence Lookback Target %: % change in price from lowest RSI candle in divergence lookback if set
Source of Buy Below Target Price: Source of price (close, open, high, low, etc..) used to calculated buy below %
Smoothed RSI Lookback Period: # of candles used to calculate RSI
RSI Currently Below: Value the current RSI must be below to trigger a buy
RSI Divergence Lookback Period: # of candles used to lookback for lowest RSI in the divergence lookback period
RSI Lowest In Divergence Lookback Currently Below: Require the lowest RSI in the divergence lookback to be below this value
RSI Sell Above: If take profit or stop loss is not hit, the position will sell when RSI rises above this value
Minimum SRSI Downtrend Length: Require that the downtrend length of the SRSI be this value or higher to trigger a buy
Smoothed RSI Currently Below: Value the current SRSI must be below to trigger a buy
Strategy PyramiCoverStrategy for pyramidization and coverage. (Indicator PyramiCover)
Recommended time frame 60 min.
Strategy Quadratic Semaphore I add a basic strategy for the "Quadratic traffic light" indicator, it can help to find a good configuration.
Regards.
Strategy Death To The Bear Simple strategy for the indicator "Death To The Bear".
Simple rules:
- Entry according to the selected weapons.
- Take profit 1 (TP1) in% of daily ATR (can be set, default 20%)
- Active Stop in Breakeven when I take profit in TP1.
- Take profit 2 (TP1) in% of daily ATR (can be set, default 30%)
* Pyramidization can be changed from the configuration (maximum number of tickets to average your price)
* Many do not like to pyramid, but I can assure you that with good management, and good choice of the instrument and time frame, you will get good money.
Note: at the request of some people who cannot see the EMOJI in the configuration you can choose TEXT.
Thumbs up
High Gain Volume Strategy Only 2 Candles The result after having a good wine...
Data with reliable volume required.
to enjoy!
[BERA] KEANU REEVES STRATEGY TESTThis is a strategy test of my indicator.
Indicator based on Average true range.
LIME ARROW = LONG
RED ARROW = SHORT
LIME COLOR BARS IF GREEN ARROW CONDITION VALID.
RED COLOR BARS IF RED ARROW CONDITION VALID.
Bull and Bear Fear Expert by Walter Downs StrategyBull and Bear Fear Expert by Walter Downs Strategy
E21) There is no "security (tickerid, 'D', close)", which has "Blue Sky day 90%", "Vdub" and etc
2) The tested values which you can see below were without "Pyramiding"
Bearish&Bullish Engulfing (created by LucaBono)Questo indicatore (o price action pattern) stampa sul grafico delle frecce o barre colorate (modificabili dalle impostazioni) quando si verificano entrambi i segnali del Bearish e Bullish Engulfing ufficiali, ovvero quando il corpo della candela è più ampio dell'intera candela precedente.
Il segnale LONG si effettua quando il massimo della Bullish bar viene rotto dalla candela successiva.
Il segnale SHORT viceversa si effettua alla rottura del minimo.
E' più facile trovare questo tipo di segnali su timefrime giornaliero e mercati come azioni, futures e titoli che non stanno aperti 24h.
Consiglio sempre di accompagnare questi segnali ad altri tipi di segnali o analisi per maggiorare le probabilità di successo e di tenuta del trade.
This indicator (or price action pattern) prints on the graph arrows or colored bars (which can be changed from the settings) when both official Bearish and Bullish Engulfing signals occur, ie when the body of the candle is wider than the entire previous candle.
The LONG signal is made when the maximum of the Bullish bar is broken by the next candle.
The SHORT signal, on the other hand, is performed when the minimum is broken.
It is easier to find this type of signals on daily timefrime and markets like stocks, futures and stocks that are not open 24h.
I always advise to accompany these signals to other types of signals or analyzes to increase the chances of success and stability of the trade.
