Rate Of Change Earnings Move - ROCEMRate Of Change Earnings Move
What is it and how does it work?
The Rate of Change Earnings Move indicator or ROCEM is an indicator designed for giving the user an idea of how much a stock has moved up or down in past earnings reports. This is ideal for options traders who can use ROCEM to calculate whether or not their long straddles are actually probable of happening.
How it works
The indicator measures the absolute value rate of change and then calculates the average rate of change for the day of the earnings report for the past 8 earnings reports (2 years). It then takes the current stock price and finds the upper and lower price based on the average rate of change for past earnings.
I have also included a moving average (purple line), use this to see if the current rate of change is higher than usual.
Additionally, earnings reports are marked with a red x on the indicator.
How to trade ROCEM
This is primarily made for options trading so I will be explaining how it can be used for that. It is not suited for traditional stock trading as it does not determine a market direction.
Select a stock with an upcoming earnings
Enter your per leg commissions in the indicator if you want it to calculate new upper and lower prices (makes it easier to determine if the options trade will pass the breakeven when commissions are factored in)
Compare your long straddle breakevens with the upper and lower prices of the indicator. If the upper breakeven is smaller than the upper price in ROCEM and the lower breakeven is larger than the lower price in ROCEM, then a long straddle position could be considered a reasonable trade based on past earnings performance.
الأرباح
Earnings Support and Resistance Levels [NeoButane]Inspired by @LazyBear's/@timwest's script:
Usage: support and resistance levels based on averaging price around earnings and quarterly opens.
What it is plotting:
1. A horizontal level whenever earnings occur. If actual earnings is higher than estimated, the line turns green, else red.
2. A horizontal level every quarterly open, colored black.
3. An average between the two mentioned above, colored orange.
4. 5% moves away from 3M open and earnings
5. Misc: 5% move away from that 5% move away, then 10% move away from the 2nd 5% move away.
By default, 4 and 5 are off to reduce visual noise.
Idea: Traders panic around certain dates that always happen, and traders always panic in the wrong direction. The market is composed of traders trading in the wrong direction at the same time, all the time. That means price will bounce back and forth as the gambling dens colloquially known as 'forex brokerages' or 'stock exchanges' take your money in the form of fees, time, and liquidations. So I put two lines on the chart and put one right in between, because it always goes back. I hope you can find it useful!
Note: This was a part of the old fundamental data indicators and is not officially for use, so while it should work on most U.S. stocks and a couple of other exchanges, it is not perfect.
Stupid strategyStrategy with simple stop-loss and take-profit in percentage. If last trade was a successful one then repeat it. If not successful - do a reversal trade.
Multiplier ChartI am proposing an alternative to the percent change.
An alternative that is symmetrical to both positive and negative change, unlike percentage change.
The simple idea is to have a positive number if the reference value (called val in the script) is lower than the stock value and needs to be multiplied;
a negative number instead if the reference number is higher than the stock value, so the reference value needs to be divided.
Multiplying all by 100 to give clearer and more readable results, the Multiplier would have a huge gap between +100 and -100, because a stock multiplied by 1 or divided by 1 are the same thing.
So we need to compromise and move all positive numbers down by 100 and all negative numbers up by 100. This actually gives a similar result to percentage change, and it is actually identical in the positive range.
The fundamental difference lies on the negative range, which is completely symmetrical. So if a stock goes up 100 points one day (doubles), and the next it goes down another 100 points (halves), at the end of the second day the stock has the same value as it had at the beginning of the first day! On percentage change it would be +100% the first day and -50% the second.
We mustn't undervalue the human tendency to compare a 1% change to a -1% change, but they do not mean the same even if they seem to indicate so.
A clear example of this can be found on CMC 0.60% -3.56% -3.56% (CoinMarketCap), in which each day are shown the best and worst performing coins of the day. So you might see a +900% there in the top performing, but you'll never see a -900%, because percentage change cannot go further than -100%. It is a fundamentally asymmetric scale that can confuse people a lot especially in those fast moving new markets.ù
I am welcome to feedback and all kinds of opinions and critics.
Some interesting things to note: you can use it as a percentage change indicator or as a different perspective to a stock chart. In fact, it lets you see how big of a difference it made buying coins when they were very cheap, because when they are cheap a difference of what it might seem nothing is amplified by all the gains that the stock/coin made after. So, looking at coins charts using this indicator shows how "not flat" were the early days, which in a normal chart are flattened to 0.
Mayer MultipleFollowing Preston Pysh's "Bitcoin Mayer Multiple" study, I made this simple script to plot the Mayer multiple by calculating the ratio between bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average. It also plots the moving average of ratio itself.
Mayer Multiple Buy PriceFollowing Preston Pysh's "Bitcoin Mayer Multiple" study, I made this simple script to plot the recommended buy price based on the calculated 2.4x ratio between bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average. The ratio and SMA length have default values of 2.4 and 200 and can be adjusted.
Earnings S/R Levels [LazyBear]These levels are based on price around earnings day. I have implemented support for 2 calculation modes:
Mode 1: Level = (low of 1 day prior to earnings + high of 1 day after earnings) / 2.0
Mode 2: Level = (hl2 of 1 day prior to earnings + hl2 of 1 day after earnings + close from earnings day) / 3.0
Chart above shows "Mode 1". Mode can be changed via options page.
This indicator was requested by user @mika2k1ff. I learnt more about this idea from @DanV and @TimWest (Thanks guys :)). BTW, TimWest has an indicators package, "Key Hidden Levels", that has this and more.
Do let me know how you use this, I am very intrigued by the potential this idea shows. Thanks.
For a complete list of my indicators:
- GDoc: docs.google.com
- Chart:
