Forecast
Seasonality ForecasterThe Seasonaliity Forcaster indicator takes advantage of the seasonality of the price to create a forecast of how the price could go in the coming days.
It is calculated on the DAILY chart that contains about 260 days of market and I recommend using it on that chart.
In the properties under " Style " you can turn on or off the chart of what made the price 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years ago or the average of the last 5, 7 or 10 years (if there are enough data).
Under " Input " you can decide the offsets of the various charts, or horizontally align the various charts to find the most similar configuration to what the price has done, so as to understand if the price is following the seasonality of a few years in particular, the vertical alignment is a decimal number that allows you to raise or lower the chart in percentage to better align it with the price.
How to use it:
1) under "Properties" --> "Style" deselect all the last years charts and leave just the actual price.
2) select just the last year chart.
3) under input you have the parameters to change to align the last year chart on the actual price chart, the indicator by default show the forecast 100 bars,
align the horizontal offset and the vertical alignment to put the 2 charts together, you have to find the macro trend, not the micro, of the last 5 - 6 months.
4) repeat it with another chart, for example 2 years ago
5) then repeat it with all the charts, if there are no macro trend as the actual price deselect the chart
6) when you find a good overlap look for the candle chart to find a good level to enter.
That's it that's all.
Arbitrage ForecastWith great excitement we are pleased to announce Arbitrage Forecast.
We have combined the precision of Arbitrage Level with the Accuracy of Arbitrage Loop to create a forecasting tool to help you visually see which way the market is moving.
This is how it works.
First, the light blue lines bind the purple line within the confines of this Forecast Band(99.6% of the time)
This means we show you where the most probable turn around points are located.
Second, that purple line: long as it's below the histagram the forecast is bearish.
Third If both the purple line and the histogram are below the 0 line. RUN FOR YOUR CASH... It's about to get UGLY.
Aggressively playing this indicator you can exit your long position as soon as the purple line pierces the histogram area
And for those who demand confirmations letting the histogram turn red by falling below the black 0 line will confirm a new down trend has started
Lastly for those aggressive bulls, letting the purple line pierce a red cloud from below signals a bullish trend but again the confirmation of the trend will
be both the purple line being above the black 0 line and the histogram turning back green.
Stop guessing, Start Profiting
Arbitrage Trade Team
Chande Forecast Oscillator Backtest The Chande Forecast Oscillator developed by Tushar Chande The Forecast
Oscillator plots the percentage difference between the closing price and
the n-period linear regression forecasted price. The oscillator is above
zero when the forecast price is greater than the closing price and less
than zero if it is below.
You can change long to short in the Input Settings
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Chande Forecast Oscillator Strategy The Chande Forecast Oscillator developed by Tushar Chande The Forecast
Oscillator plots the percentage difference between the closing price and
the n-period linear regression forecasted price. The oscillator is above
zero when the forecast price is greater than the closing price and less
than zero if it is below.
WARNING:
- This script to change bars colors.
Forecast OscillatorForecast Oscillator indicator script. This indicator was originally developed by Tushar Chande.
Chande Forecast Oscillator The Chande Forecast Oscillator developed by Tushar Chande The Forecast
Oscillator plots the percentage difference between the closing price and
the n-period linear regression forecasted price. The oscillator is above
zero when the forecast price is greater than the closing price and less
than zero if it is below.
Stationary Extrapolated LevelsBeta Peek/Valey based forecast
The idea behind this indicator is to extrapolate a stationary time series and find the peeks of the extrapolated result. The highest and lowest of the extrapolated data represent really precise support and resistance if the data and its extrapolation are barelly equal with an error lower than the average.
When the detrended price ( in blue ) crossover the lower level then the indicator detect a valey and the possibility of an up movement, if the higher is crossed down then the indicator detect a peek and the possibility a down movement.
When "Show extrapolated values" is checked the indicator will show the forecast of the detrended price with a forecast of length periods ahead.
Feel free to contact me for any questions regarding my indicators :)
Linear ExtrapolationBasic extrapolator for forecast a time-series, all forecasts are mades length periods ahead.
This is not a estimation of the exact price
This should only be used for forecasting direction, dont expect the price to be at the same value of its forecast.
Bias, Mean absolute error, Mean percentage error...etc look useless here, its better to use correlation as a accuracy measurement.
Correlation(Forecast ,close,period)
Rescaling for a better forecast ?
Transforming a non-stationary signal to a stationary signal can increase the forecasting accuracy, this can be done by detrending. Here is a list of somes detrending methods:
Auto-Bias : price - price
Mean-Bias : price - price moving average
Log transform : log(price/price moving average)
Correlation : correlation(price,n,period)
[RS]Shifted Pivots V1update: added weekly and monthly pivots, the offset is a average approximation so there may be inconsistency on the date forecasted to be end of week/month.
(using diferent sessions or limited time intervals is not possible).
Previous H/Ls and Forecast H/LPlots the previous periods High and Lows (black crosses) and forecasts the next day's High and Lows (gray crosses)
