Advanced Concept V4 Change your trading time zone to New York . To maximize readiness for institutional trading setups based on the prescribed models, traders should set alarms for specific times in the New York Time Zone (EST/EDT), which is generally 10.5 hours behind IST.
Asian Stop Hunt Model
The Stop Hunt Model is a liquidity-based strategy designed to exploit market stop-loss sweeps by aligning with the IPDA daily bias. The core idea is to wait for price to sweep the engineered liquidity of the Asian Session High or Low (after 10:30 AM IST). Once the sweep occurs, the trader confirms the market's true direction via a Change of Character (CHoCH) on the lower timeframe. The entry is then taken only on a retest of the resulting price inefficiency, specifically a Balanced Price Range (BPR) or imbalance, which represents the institutional entry point. By targeting the next major liquidity pool with a minimum 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio, the model prioritizes discipline and quality over frequent trading.
The New York Open Model
The New York Open Model is an index-focused strategy (SPX500, NAS100, US30) that trades solely during the New York Session (9:30 AM – 12:30 PM NYT). It establishes a Range Zone high and low from midnight until the open, treating these boundaries as institutional liquidity targets. Execution is triggered by a mandatory liquidity sweep of one side of this range, followed by a confirming Change of Character (CHoCH) on the 1-minute chart. Entry is taken precisely on the retest of a resulting price inefficiency (like an FVG), aiming for the opposite side of the session range, prioritizing simplicity, timing, and controlled risk over external biases like IPDA.
The ATM Strategy
The ATM Strategy is a high-precision, New York-session trading model designed to capture institutional liquidity moves using the IPDA directional bias. The strategy operates by first defining a Range Zone (00:00 to 8:30 AM NY time) where high and low boundaries act as liquidity targets. Execution is restricted to the Trading Zone (8:30AM to 12:30 PM NY time) and is only triggered when price executes a mandatory liquidity sweep of one range boundary that aligns with the IPDA bias. This sweep must then be confirmed on the 1-minute chart by a Change of Character (CHoCH). Final entry is taken on the retest of a resulting price inefficiency (like an FVG or BPR), with targets set at session highs or lows, ensuring institutional-style execution with high clarity and discipline.
The Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR)
The Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) model is a disciplined, institutional trading strategy used on the 15-minute chart, primarily focusing on London Session liquidity for major currency pairs. The core idea is to align with Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) bias, which dictates a mandatory liquidity sweep (a false breakout of the previous day's high or low) must occur first. Following this sweep, a visible price imbalance (Fair Value Gap) must form within the London Session. Entry is strictly taken only on the retest of this imbalance zone, confirming institutional order flow, with a fixed target at the opposite boundary of the previous day's range.
التحليل الأساسي
ZTC Key Levels IndicatorPick the levels of your likely and set bias for and entry levels for your needs.
Engulfing Reversal PatternThe Engulfing Reversal Pattern indicator seeks out both bullish and bearish reversal patterns. This indicator offers the user numerous options to modify the indicator to their needs.
Key features:
Ability to adjust the size of the Engulfing candle in comparison to the prior candle
Ability to adjust the number of breakout candles
Indicator adapts to the Time Frame it is being used in
You can choose between identifying only Bearish patterns, only Bullish patterns or both.
Indicator Arrow size can be adjusted in size.
Global Sovereign Spread MonitorIn the summer of 2011, the yield on Italian government bonds rose dramatically while German Bund yields fell to historic lows. This divergence, measured as the BTP-Bund spread, reached nearly 550 basis points in November of that year, signaling what would become the most severe test of the European monetary union since its inception. Portfolio managers who monitored this spread had days, sometimes weeks, of advance warning before equity markets crashed. Those who ignored it suffered significant losses.
The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor is built on a simple but powerful observation that has been validated repeatedly in academic literature: sovereign bond spreads contain forward-looking information about systemic risk that is not fully reflected in equity prices (Longstaff et al., 2011). When investors demand higher yields to hold peripheral government debt relative to safe-haven bonds, they are expressing a view about credit risk, liquidity conditions, and the probability of systemic stress. This information, when properly analyzed, provides actionable signals for traders across all asset classes.
The Science of Sovereign Spreads
The academic study of government bond yield differentials began in earnest following the creation of the European Monetary Union. Codogno, Favero and Missale (2003) published what remains one of the foundational papers in this field, examining why yields on government bonds within a currency union should differ at all. Their analysis, published in Economic Policy, identified two primary drivers: credit risk and liquidity. Countries with higher debt-to-GDP ratios and weaker fiscal positions commanded higher yields, but importantly, these spreads widened dramatically during periods of market stress even when fundamentals had not changed significantly.
This observation led to a crucial insight that Favero, Pagano and von Thadden (2010) explored in depth in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. They found that liquidity effects can amplify credit risk during stress periods, creating a feedback loop where rising spreads reduce liquidity, which in turn pushes spreads even higher. This dynamic explains why sovereign spreads often move in non-linear fashion, remaining stable for extended periods before suddenly widening rapidly.
Longstaff, Pan, Pedersen and Singleton (2011) extended this research in their American Economic Review paper by examining the relationship between sovereign credit default swap spreads and bond spreads across multiple countries. Their key finding was that a significant portion of sovereign credit risk is driven by global factors rather than country-specific fundamentals. This means that when spreads widen in Italy, it often reflects broader risk aversion that will eventually affect other asset classes including equities and corporate bonds.
The practical implication of this research is clear: sovereign spreads function as a leading indicator for systemic risk. Aizenman, Hutchison and Jinjarak (2013) confirmed this in their analysis of European sovereign debt default probabilities, finding that spread movements preceded rating downgrades and provided earlier warning signals than traditional fundamental analysis.
How the Indicator Works
The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor translates these academic findings into a systematic framework for monitoring credit conditions. The indicator calculates yield differentials between peripheral government bonds and German Bunds, which serve as the benchmark safe-haven asset in European markets. Italian ten-year yields minus German ten-year yields produce the BTP-Bund spread, the single most important metric for Eurozone stress. Spanish yields minus German yields produce the Bonos-Bund spread, providing a secondary confirmation signal. The transatlantic US-Bund spread captures divergence between the two major safe-haven markets.
Raw spreads are converted to Z-scores, which measure how many standard deviations the current spread is from its historical average over the lookback period. This normalization is essential because absolute spread levels vary over time with interest rate cycles and structural changes in sovereign debt markets. A spread of 150 basis points might have been concerning in 2007 but entirely normal in 2023 following the European debt crisis and subsequent ECB interventions.
The composite index combines these individual Z-scores using weights that reflect the relative importance of each spread for global risk assessment. Italy receives the highest weight because it represents the third-largest sovereign bond market globally and any Italian debt crisis would have systemic implications for the entire Eurozone. Spain provides confirmation of peripheral stress, while the US-Bund spread captures flight-to-quality dynamics between the two primary safe-haven markets.
Regime classification transforms the continuous Z-score into discrete states that correspond to different market environments. The Stress regime indicates that spreads have widened to levels historically associated with crisis periods. The Elevated regime signals rising risk aversion that warrants increased attention. Normal conditions represent typical spread behavior, while the Calm regime may actually signal complacency and potential mean-reversion opportunities.
Retail Trader Applications
For individual traders without access to institutional research teams, the Global Sovereign Spread Monitor provides a window into the macro environment that typically remains opaque. The most immediate application is risk management for equity positions.
Consider a trader holding a diversified portfolio of European stocks. When the composite Z-score rises above 1.0 and enters the Elevated regime, historical data suggests an increased probability of equity market drawdowns in the coming days to weeks. This does not mean the trader must immediately liquidate all positions, but it does suggest reducing position sizes, tightening stop-losses, or adding hedges such as put options or inverse ETFs.
The BTP-Bund spread specifically provides actionable information for anyone trading EUR/USD or European equity indices. Research by De Grauwe and Ji (2013) demonstrated that sovereign spreads and currency movements are closely linked during stress periods. When the BTP-Bund spread widens sharply, the Euro typically weakens against the Dollar as investors question the sustainability of the monetary union. A retail forex trader can use the indicator to time entries into EUR/USD short positions or to exit long positions before spread-driven selloffs occur.
The regime classification system simplifies decision-making for traders who cannot constantly monitor multiple data feeds. When the dashboard displays Stress, it is time to adopt a defensive posture regardless of what individual stock charts might suggest. When it displays Calm, the trader knows that risk appetite is elevated across institutional markets, which typically supports equity prices but also means that any negative catalyst could trigger a sharp reversal.
Mean-reversion signals provide opportunities for more active traders. When spreads reach extreme levels in either direction, they tend to revert toward their historical average. A Z-score above 2.0 that begins declining suggests professional investors are starting to buy peripheral debt again, which historically precedes broader risk-on behavior. A Z-score below minus 1.0 that starts rising may indicate that complacency is ending and risk-off positioning is beginning.
The key for retail traders is to use the indicator as a filter rather than a primary signal generator. If technical analysis suggests a long entry in European stocks, check the sovereign spread regime first. If spreads are elevated or rising, the technical setup becomes higher risk. If spreads are stable or compressing, the technical signal has a higher probability of success.
Professional Applications
Institutional investors use sovereign spread analysis in more sophisticated ways that go beyond simple risk filtering. Systematic macro funds incorporate spread data into quantitative models that generate trading signals across multiple asset classes simultaneously.
Portfolio managers at large asset allocators use sovereign spreads to make strategic allocation decisions. When the composite Z-score trends higher over several weeks, they reduce exposure to peripheral European equities and bonds while increasing allocations to German Bunds, US Treasuries, and other safe-haven assets. This rotation often happens before explicit risk-off signals appear in equity markets, giving these investors a performance advantage.
Fixed income specialists at banks and hedge funds use sovereign spreads for relative value trades. When the BTP-Bund spread widens to historically elevated levels but fundamentals have not deteriorated proportionally, they may go long Italian government bonds and short German Bunds, betting on mean reversion. These trades require careful risk management because spreads can widen further before reversing, but when properly sized they offer attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Risk managers at financial institutions use sovereign spread monitoring as an input to Value-at-Risk models and stress testing frameworks. Elevated spreads indicate higher correlation among risk assets, which means diversification benefits are reduced precisely when they are needed most. This information feeds into position sizing decisions across the entire trading book.
Currency traders at proprietary trading firms incorporate sovereign spreads into their EUR/USD and EUR/CHF models. The relationship between the BTP-Bund spread and EUR weakness is well-documented in academic literature and provides a systematic edge when combined with other factors such as interest rate differentials and positioning data.
Central bank watchers use sovereign spreads to anticipate policy responses. The European Central Bank has demonstrated repeatedly that it will intervene when spreads reach levels that threaten financial stability, most notably through the Outright Monetary Transactions program announced in 2012 and the Transmission Protection Instrument introduced in 2022. Understanding spread dynamics helps investors anticipate these interventions and position accordingly.
Interpreting the Dashboard
The statistics panel provides real-time information that supports both quick assessments and deeper analysis. The composite Z-score is the primary metric, representing the weighted average of all spread Z-scores. Values above zero indicate spreads are wider than their historical average, while values below zero indicate compression. The magnitude matters: a reading of 0.5 suggests modestly elevated stress, while 2.0 or higher indicates conditions similar to historical crisis periods.
The regime classification translates the Z-score into actionable categories. Stress should trigger immediate review of risk exposure and consideration of hedges. Elevated warrants increased vigilance and potentially reduced position sizes. Normal indicates no immediate concerns from sovereign markets. Calm suggests risk appetite may be elevated, which supports risk assets but also creates potential for sharp reversals if sentiment changes.
The percentile ranking provides historical context by showing where the current Z-score falls within its distribution over the lookback period. A reading of 90 percent means spreads are wider than they have been 90 percent of the time over the past year, which is significant even if the absolute Z-score is not extreme. This metric helps identify when spreads are creeping higher before they reach official stress thresholds.
Momentum indicates whether spreads are widening or compressing. Rising momentum during elevated spread conditions is particularly concerning because it suggests stress is accelerating. Falling momentum during stress suggests the worst may be past and mean reversion could be beginning.
Individual spread readings allow traders to identify which component is driving the composite signal. If the BTP-Bund spread is elevated but Bonos-Bund remains normal, the stress may be Italy-specific rather than systemic. If all spreads are widening together, the signal reflects broader flight-to-quality that affects all risk assets.
The bias indicator provides a simple summary for traders who need quick guidance. Risk-Off means spreads indicate defensive positioning is appropriate. Risk-On means spread conditions support risk-taking. Neutral means spreads provide no clear directional signal.
Limitations and Risk Factors
No indicator provides perfect signals, and sovereign spread analysis has specific limitations that users must understand. The European Central Bank has demonstrated its willingness to intervene in sovereign bond markets when spreads threaten financial stability. The Transmission Protection Instrument announced in 2022 specifically targets situations where spreads widen beyond levels justified by fundamentals. This creates a floor under peripheral bond prices and means that extremely elevated spreads may not persist as long as historical patterns would suggest.
Political events can cause sudden spread movements that are impossible to anticipate. Elections, government formation crises, and policy announcements can move spreads by 50 basis points or more in a single session. The indicator will reflect these moves but cannot predict them.
Liquidity conditions in sovereign bond markets can temporarily distort spread readings, particularly around quarter-end and year-end when banks adjust their balance sheets. These technical factors can cause spread widening or compression that does not reflect fundamental credit risk.
The relationship between sovereign spreads and other asset classes is not constant over time. During some periods, spread movements lead equity moves by several days. During others, both markets move simultaneously. The indicator provides valuable information about credit conditions, but users should not expect mechanical relationships between spread signals and subsequent price moves in other markets.
Conclusion
The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor represents a systematic application of academic research on sovereign credit risk to practical trading decisions. The indicator monitors yield differentials between peripheral and safe-haven government bonds, normalizes these spreads using statistical methods, and classifies market conditions into regimes that correspond to different risk environments.
For retail traders, the indicator provides risk management information that was previously available only to institutional investors with access to Bloomberg terminals and dedicated research teams. By checking the sovereign spread regime before executing trades, individual investors can avoid taking excessive risk during periods of elevated credit stress.
For professional investors, the indicator offers a standardized framework for monitoring sovereign credit conditions that can be integrated into broader macro models and risk management systems. The real-time calculation of Z-scores, regime classifications, and component spreads provides the inputs needed for systematic trading strategies.
The academic foundation is robust, built on peer-reviewed research published in top finance and economics journals over the past two decades. The practical applications have been validated through multiple market cycles including the European debt crisis of 2011-2012, the COVID-19 shock of 2020, and the rate normalization stress of 2022.
Sovereign spreads will continue to provide valuable forward-looking information about systemic risk for as long as credit conditions vary across countries and investors respond rationally to changes in default probabilities. The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor makes this information accessible and actionable for traders at all levels of sophistication.
References
Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M. and Jinjarak, Y. (2013) What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 37-59.
Codogno, L., Favero, C. and Missale, A. (2003) Yield Spreads on EMU Government Bonds. Economic Policy, 18(37), pp. 503-532.
De Grauwe, P. and Ji, Y. (2013) Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 15-36.
Favero, C., Pagano, M. and von Thadden, E.L. (2010) How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(1), pp. 107-134.
Longstaff, F.A., Pan, J., Pedersen, L.H. and Singleton, K.J. (2011) How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk? American Economic Review, 101(6), pp. 2191-2212.
Manganelli, S. and Wolswijk, G. (2009) What Drives Spreads in the Euro Area Government Bond Market? Economic Policy, 24(58), pp. 191-240.
Arghyrou, M.G. and Kontonikas, A. (2012) The EMU Sovereign-Debt Crisis: Fundamentals, Expectations and Contagion. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(4), pp. 658-677.
CBDR Standard Deviation V2CBDR
Standard Deviation measures how far price statistically deviates from the central bank dealer range before institutional rebalancing occurs. CBDR defines fair value, while standard deviation highlights liquidity expansion zones. Moves into ±2 SD or beyond often signal stop-loss sweeps and inventory imbalance, where institutions favor mean reversion, not breakouts.
CBDR SD Core Checklist
□ Daily IPDA bias defined
□ Clean CBDR formed (Asia / early London)
□ CBDR high & low marked
□ ±1 and ±2 SD levels plotted
□ Liquidity sweep beyond CBDR
□ No high-impact news in session
CBDR SD Reversal Trade Checklist
□ Price taps ±2 SD or ±2.5 SD
□ Clear rejection (wick / displacement)
□ Entry against the expansion, not on breakout
□ Stop placed beyond liquidity extreme
□ TP1: CBDR boundary
□ TP2: CBDR midpoint (mean)
□ TP3 (optional): Opposite CBDR extreme
□ Invalidate if strong trend displacement continues
This reversal model captures institutional fade trades after liquidity is harvested, keeping execution statistical, disciplined, and prop-firm resilient.
H1 Liquidity Sweep Tracker🇬🇧 English: H1 Liquidity Sweep Tracker
Overview
The H1 Liquidity Sweep Tracker is a technical analysis tool designed for TradingView (Pine Script v5). It identifies "Liquidity Sweeps"—market movements where the price briefly breaches a significant level to trigger stop-loss orders before reversing.
Core Functions
H1 Level Detection: Regardless of your current timeframe (e.g., 1m, 5m, or 15m), the script automatically fetches the High and Low of the previous 1-hour candle.
Real-Time Monitoring: It tracks price action relative to these levels to identify failed breakouts.
Visual Indicators:
Horizontal Lines: Displays the H1 High (Red) and H1 Low (Green) from the previous hour.
Sweep Shapes: A triangle appears above/below the candle when a sweep is detected.
How it Works (The Logic)
A "Sweep" is triggered when the current price moves beyond the H1 boundary but fails to maintain that position:
Bullish Sweep: The price drops below the previous H1 Low (collecting sell-side liquidity) but closes back above it. This suggests a potential upward reversal.
Bearish Sweep: The price rises above the previous H1 High (collecting buy-side liquidity) but closes back below it. This suggests a potential downward reversal.
Support Resistance-Session Box Breakout Support Resistance-Session Box Breakout สามารถใช้แนวรับแนวต้านจากSupport Resistance-Session Box หาจุกลับตัวหรือหาจุดเข้าเทรดได้
SPY 9EMA + Momentum + Patterns + PT (TF-aware)9ema crossover, candle shapes, call/put on 3m-5m-10-15min time frames
Fed Balance Sheet (Candles)Fed Balance Sheet (Candles) - TradingView Description
📊 OVERVIEW
Fed Balance Sheet (Candles) transforms the Federal Reserve's total assets into an intuitive candlestick visualization, allowing you to track monetary policy changes with the same visual language you use for price action.
This indicator pulls real-time data directly from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) and displays the Total Assets of All Federal Reserve Banks as dynamic candles on your chart, making it effortless to correlate central bank liquidity with market movements.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is one of the most powerful leading indicators in global markets. When the Fed expands its balance sheet (Quantitative Easing), it injects liquidity into the financial system, historically correlating with:
Rising asset prices (stocks, crypto, commodities)
Lower volatility
Risk-on sentiment
Currency devaluation
When the Fed contracts its balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening), liquidity drains from markets, often leading to:
Asset price pressure
Increased volatility
Risk-off sentiment
Dollar strength
By visualizing this as candles, you can instantly see:
The pace of change (candle size)
The direction (green = expansion, red = contraction)
Acceleration or deceleration (consecutive candles in same direction)
Pivots in monetary policy (color changes from green to red or vice versa)
🔧 HOW IT WORKS
Data Source
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Metric: Total Assets of All Federal Reserve Banks
Unit: Displayed in Trillions of USD for easy reading
Frequency: Weekly updates (every Wednesday)
Candlestick Construction
Since balance sheet data is reported as a single number each week (not traditional open-high-low-close), this indicator creates candles by comparing each period to the previous one:
Open = Last week's balance sheet value
Close = This week's balance sheet value
High = The higher of the two values
Low = The lower of the two values
This captures directional movement and magnitude of change, making it intuitive for traders accustomed to candlestick analysis.
Color Scheme
🟢 GREEN CANDLES (Expanding Balance Sheet)
When this week's value is higher than last week's
Interpretation: Fed is adding liquidity (Quantitative Easing)
Historically bullish for risk assets
🔴 RED CANDLES (Contracting Balance Sheet)
When this week's value is lower than last week's
Interpretation: Fed is removing liquidity (Quantitative Tightening)
Historically bearish or neutral for risk assets
Value Label
A floating label displays the current balance sheet value in trillions (e.g., "$8.75T") so you always know the exact figure at a glance.
📈 PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
1. Market Regime Identification
Strings of green candles = Liquidity-driven bull markets
Strings of red candles = Tightening-induced bear markets or corrections
Color transitions = Potential market inflection points
2. Correlation Analysis
Overlay on stock indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM)
Overlay on crypto (BTC, ETH)
Overlay on commodities (Gold, Silver)
Observe how asset prices react to Fed liquidity changes in real-time
3. Macro Timing
Large green candles = Aggressive easing (crisis response)
Large red candles = Aggressive tightening (inflation fighting)
Small candles = Neutral policy (Fed on hold)
4. Risk Management
Shift portfolio allocation based on liquidity environment
Reduce leverage during red candle trends
Increase exposure during green candle trends
Use as confirmation for other technical signals
5. Multi-Timeframe Context
Daily charts: See how daily price action relates to weekly Fed data
Weekly charts: Perfect alignment with data release frequency
Monthly charts: Visualize long-term monetary cycles spanning years
⚙️ SETTINGS
Zero configuration needed. Simply add the indicator to any chart and it works immediately.
The indicator automatically:
Overlays on your main chart
Uses the left price scale (won't interfere with asset prices)
Updates with the latest Fed data
Displays values in trillions for clean readability
🎨 VISUAL DESIGN PHILOSOPHY
The indicator uses semi-transparent candle bodies with vibrant borders to maintain visibility without obscuring your price action. The color scheme follows universal chart conventions where green represents growth/expansion and red represents decline/contraction.
It's designed to blend seamlessly into any chart theme while providing immediate visual clarity about the Fed's monetary stance.
📚 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Data Availability
Historical data available from December 2002 (over 20 years of Fed policy)
Updates every Wednesday (Federal Reserve's reporting schedule)
Typically published with a 1-week lag
How the Data Appears
On weekdays: Shows the most recent Wednesday's data
On weekends: Shows Friday's data (which is the prior Wednesday's figure)
Updates automatically when new data is released
Scale Considerations
The Fed's balance sheet is measured in trillions, while most assets are priced much lower. The indicator uses the left price scale by default to avoid conflicts with your main asset's price scale. You can easily move it to a separate pane if you prefer.
🧠 INTERPRETATION GUIDE
Historical QE Phases (Green Candles)
2008-2014: Financial Crisis Response
The Fed's balance sheet expanded from under $1T to ~$4.5T to stabilize markets after the mortgage crisis.
2020: COVID-19 Response
Rapid expansion to ~$7T as the Fed stepped in during pandemic lockdowns.
2020-2022: Extended Support
Balance sheet reached historic peak of ~$9T.
Historical QT Phases (Red Candles)
2017-2019: First Modern QT Attempt
The Fed tried to normalize its balance sheet, reducing it from ~$4.5T to ~$3.8T before pivoting.
2022-Present: Inflation-Fighting QT
The Fed began shrinking its balance sheet to combat inflation, letting bonds mature without replacement.
Key Insights
Size matters, but rate of change matters MORE.
A $9T balance sheet growing slowly has different implications than a $5T balance sheet growing rapidly.
Watch for acceleration.
Increasingly large candles (up or down) signal a policy shift that markets will notice.
Plateaus mean "wait and see."
Tiny candles indicate the Fed is holding steady and watching economic data.
Reversals are major events.
When candles switch from green to red (or vice versa), the Fed has changed course—these are critical market turning points.
🎓 EDUCATIONAL VALUE
This indicator helps you understand:
The mechanics of monetary policy through visual learning
The lag between Fed actions and market reactions by observing temporal correlation
The scale of modern central banking (trillions put into perspective)
The relationship between liquidity and asset prices (cause and effect in action)
Many traders talk about "don't fight the Fed" but never actually track what the Fed is doing. Now you can see it as clearly as you see price action.
🔗 RELATED CONCEPTS
For comprehensive macro analysis, consider also tracking:
Fed Funds Rate (short-term interest rates)
M2 Money Supply (broader measure of money in circulation)
Treasury Yield Curves (bond market expectations)
Dollar Index (DXY) (currency strength)
VIX (market fear/volatility)
The Fed's balance sheet is just one piece of the puzzle, but it's arguably the most important one for understanding liquidity conditions.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This indicator displays publicly available economic data from the Federal Reserve. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Important considerations:
Past monetary policy does not guarantee future market outcomes
Correlation does not equal causation
Asset prices are influenced by many factors beyond Fed liquidity
Always use proper risk management
Consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions
Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
📜 VERSION HISTORY
Version 1.0 - Initial Release
Fed balance sheet visualized as candlesticks
Real-time FRED data integration
Automatic display in trillions
Dynamic color coding (green/red)
Current value label with exact figure
💡 WHY CANDLES?
You might wonder: "Why show the Fed's balance sheet as candles instead of a line?"
Because candles tell stories that lines can't.
A line shows you where we are
Candles show you how we got here, how fast we're moving, and what momentum looks like
Candles make the Fed's actions feel immediate and tangible
Candles connect macro data to the chart language you already speak
When you see three big green candles in a row on the Fed balance sheet while your crypto or stock portfolio is rallying, you feel the connection. When you see the candles turn red and shrink, you understand the headwinds forming.
It transforms dry economic data into actionable market intelligence.
📞 SUPPORT & FEEDBACK
If you find this indicator valuable:
⭐ Like and favorite to help others discover it
📝 Comment with your use cases and insights
🔔 Follow for updates and new macro indicators
Your feedback drives improvements and helps build better tools for the trading community.
🚀 THE BOTTOM LINE
The Fed's balance sheet is the tide that lifts or lowers all boats.
Whether you're trading stocks, crypto, forex, or commodities—whether you're a day trader or long-term investor—understanding the Fed's liquidity operations gives you an edge.
This indicator makes that understanding visual, immediate, and actionable.
Stop guessing about macro conditions. Start seeing them.
"Don't fight the Fed" - Wall Street Wisdom
Now you can see exactly what they're doing—in the same language you use to read price action.
May your trades ride the tide of liquidity. 🌊📈
Skewness Indicator偏態分佈指標Skewness Indicator
核心功能
偏度計算 - 測量價格分佈的不對稱性
正偏度:價格傾向於右偏,可能表示上漲趨勢
負偏度:價格傾向於左偏,可能表示下跌趨勢
可自定義參數
計算週期(預設20)
數據源(收盤價、開盤價等)
正負偏態閾值
視覺化元素
藍色線:即時偏度值
橙色線:偏度移動平均(平滑訊號)
背景顏色:綠色表示強正偏態,紅色表示強負偏態
信號標記:三角形標示潛在的交易機會
交易信號
看漲信號:當偏度向上突破負閾值
看跌信號:當偏度向下跌破正閾值
資訊面板 - 右上角顯示當前偏度值和狀態
功能
多時間週期(HTF) - 可選擇在更高時間框架上計算偏度(例如在5分鐘圖上顯示日線的偏度)
交易信號 - 三角形標記顯示潛在的交易機會
資訊面板 - 右上角顯示當前偏度值和市場狀態
視覺提示 - 閾值線和背景顏色提示極端狀態
使用建議
在參數中勾選「使用高時間週期」
選擇你想要的時間週期(如 D=日線, W=週線, 240=4小時)
這樣可以在短週期圖表上看到長週期的偏態趨勢
Core functions
Skewness calculation-Measuring the asymmetry of price distribution
Positive bias: The price tends to the right, which may indicate an upward trend
Negative bias: The price tends to the left, which may indicate a downward trend
Customizable parameters
Calculation cycle (default 20)
Data source (closing price, opening price, etc.)
Positive and negative bias threshold
Visual elements
Blue line: instant skewness value
Orange line: skewed moving average (smooth signal)
Background color: green indicates a strong positive bias, red indicates a strong negative bias
Signal mark: Triangle marks potential trading opportunities
Trading signals
Bullish signal: when the skewness breaks through the negative threshold upward
Bearish signal: when the bias falls below the positive threshold
Information panel-the upper right corner displays the current skewness value and status
function
Multi-time period (HTF)-you can choose to calculate the skewness on a higher time frame (for example, display the skewness of the daily line on a 5-minute chart)
Trading signals-Triangle marks show potential trading opportunities
Information panel-the upper right corner displays the current skewness value and market status
Visual cues-threshold lines and background colors indicate extreme states
Recommendations for use
Check "Use high time period" in the parameters
Choose the time period you want (e.g. D= daily, W= weekly, 240= 4 hours)
In this way, you can see the long-cycle bias trend on the short-cycle chart
Direction Bias [ Scalping-Algo ]======================================================================
// 📊 Direction Bias
// ======================================================================
//
// 🎯 What this indicator does:
// This indicator colors your candles based on the current market bias.
// 🟢 Green bars = bullish momentum
// 🔴 Red bars = bearish momentum
// ⚪ Gray bars = choppy or undecided market
//
// ⚙️ How it works:
// It uses a range filter that adapts to volatility. When price pushes
// above the filter and keeps moving up, you get green bars. When price
// drops below and continues down, you get red bars. The filter smooths
// out the noise so you don't get whipsawed on every little move.
//
// 📈 How to trade with it:
//
// 1️⃣ Follow the color
// 🟢 Green bars = look for longs only
// 🔴 Red bars = look for shorts only
// ⚪ Gray bars = stay out or reduce size
//
// 2️⃣ Entry timing
// ✅ Wait for color change from gray to green/red
// ✅ Enter on pullbacks while color stays the same
// ❌ Don't chase if you're late to the move
//
// 3️⃣ Exit signals
// 💡 When bars turn gray, tighten your stop or take profits
// 🔄 Color flip to opposite = close the trade
//
// 4️⃣ Best practices
// ⏱️ Works best on 1m to 15m charts for scalping
// 📍 Use with support/resistance levels for better entries
// 🚫 Don't trade against the color, even if you "feel" a reversal
// 📊 Combine with volume for confirmation
//
// 🔧 Settings:
// • Period: Higher = smoother but slower reaction (default 10)
// • Multiplier: Higher = less sensitive to small moves (default 4.0)
// • Adjust based on the asset you're trading
//
// 🔔 Alerts:
// Set alerts for "Bull" and "Bear" to get notified when bias changes.
Growth DashboardThe Multi-Year Growth Dashboard provides a high-level snapshot of an asset’s historical performance directly on your chart. It calculates the total percentage growth for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year periods based on exact calendar dates.
Unlike simple bar-counting scripts, this indicator uses a "Time-Capsule" logic:
- Calendar Precision: It calculates specific timestamps for 365, 1,095, and 1,825 days ago.
- Persistent Memory: Using the var keyword, the script scans historical bars and "captures" the closing price as it crosses those specific dates.
- Dividend Adjustment: It respects the chart's ADJ (Adjusted for Dividends) toggle, ensuring your total return figures are accurate for stocks like AAPL or MSFT.
proof quant model v1team, this is the model for our class. It is public but yeah its not like there will be specific ip or stuff like that. Get to work
Tradix COR Report Index📊 Tradix COT Report Index
The Tradix COT Report Index is an advanced market sentiment and positioning tool built on official Commitment of Traders (COT) Report data, designed to reveal how major market participants are truly positioned, beyond what price alone can show.
Instead of focusing on short-term price movements, the COT Report Index analyzes real futures positioning reported to the CFTC and categorizes it into three key groups:
Commercials – hedgers and so-called smart money
Non-Commercials – institutions, funds, and large speculators
Retail / Non-Reportables – small traders and crowd positioning
Raw positioning data (Long − Short) is transformed into a normalized 0–100 index, allowing traders to instantly identify extreme market sentiment, structural imbalances, and potential turning points — without manually interpreting complex COT tables.
🧠 How the Tradix COT Index Works
The index evaluates current net positions within a historical range (typically the last 52 weeks). This contextual approach makes it easy to see:
when Commercials are at extreme long or short levels
when speculative positioning becomes overcrowded
when the market reaches structural imbalance, increasing the probability of a mean-reversion or trend shift
By standardizing positioning data, the Tradix COT Index allows cross-market comparison, making it equally useful for indices, commodities, currencies, and futures-based CFDs.
🎯 How Traders Use It
The Tradix COT Report Index is not an entry signal tool.
Instead, it acts as a high-timeframe confirmation and market context indicator, commonly used for:
identifying long-term market bias
spotting divergences between price and positioning
confirming trend exhaustion or accumulation phases
filtering trades to align with institutional positioning
When combined with technical analysis, seasonality, and risk management, the COT Index provides a statistical edge rooted in real positioning data, not opinions or lagging indicators.
⚠️ Important Notes
COT data is updated weekly, not in real time
Best used on higher timeframes (Daily, Weekly)
Designed to enhance decision-making, not to replace trading systems
Asian Stop Hunt ModelSTOP HUNT MODEL – STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The Stop Hunt Model is designed to capture high-probability trades by targeting stop-loss liquidity from retail traders at buy-side and sell-side liquidity zones. The strategy focuses on identifying where liquidity is taken during the Asian session, waiting for a Change of Character (CHoCH), and then entering from unfilled orders (Balanced Price Range / Imbalance) in the direction of the dominant IPDA bias. The objective is to trade from engineered liquidity sweeps toward the next logical liquidity pool, while maintaining strict risk control.
The model operates primarily on the 5-minute chart, with early confirmation on the 3-minute chart. The Asian Killzone is used to define the initial range, plotting its high and low. Higher-timeframe liquidity from Daily, 4H, and 1H charts is marked in advance to provide directional context. IPDA direction is determined using macro alignment such as global interest rate bias and long-term trend behavior.
Once the Asian session concludes, price is expected to sweep either the high or low of the Asian range or the previous day’s high/low. After the liquidity sweep, the market must show a valid CHoCH, confirming a shift in internal structure. Entries are taken only after the formation and retest of a Balanced Price Range (BPR) created by overlapping imbalances. Trades are executed from these imbalance zones, targeting the next liquidity area, with stop loss placed at the most recent swing high or low.
This model prioritizes precision over frequency, aiming for fewer trades with higher reward-to-risk ratios, typically 1:3 or better, and a strict daily risk cap.
CHECKLIST – STOP HUNT MODEL
1.Mark Asian Killzone High and Low
2.Identify IPDA directional bias for the pair
3.Mark Buy-side and Sell-side liquidity from Daily, 4H, and 1H
4.Wait for a liquidity sweep (Asian High/Low or Previous Day High/Low)
5.Confirm a valid CHoCH
6.Identify a valid BPR (overlapping imbalance)
7.Enter trade from the BPR zone
8.Target the next liquidity pool
9.Place stop loss at the last swing high or low
RULES – STOP HUNT MODEL STRATEGY
> Always pre-mark Buy-side and Sell-side liquidity on 1D, 4H, and 1H
> Asian Killzone must complete by 10:30 AM IST
> After Asian close, mark 15-minute timeframe liquidity
> Trade only after the market sweeps the Asian session high or low
> Align trades with IPDA direction:
> Bullish IPDA → Prefer sweep of Asian Low
> Bearish IPDA → Prefer sweep of Asian High
> CHoCH confirmation is mandatory:
> Green CHoCH for bullish setups
> Red CHoCH for bearish setups
Setup conditions:
1. Bullish: CHoCH above price + BPR below price
2. Bearish: CHoCH below price + BPR above price
3.BPR must be formed by overlapping imbalances:
4.Red → Green for bullish
5.Green → Red for bearish
6.Look for V-shaped (bullish) or A-shaped (bearish) candle behavior
7.Entry only on imbalance retest — no chase entries
8.Targets must be killzone extremes or next liquidity zone
9.Stop loss must always be at the last swing high or low
10.No manual exits if aiming for 1:3 RR
11.If price sweeps both sides or no clean sweep occurs → No Trade
12.Trade less, execute cleaner setups
13.Daily target: 1% maximum
TrendMaster [Scalping-Algo]═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📈 TrendMaster
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🔹 WHAT IS IT?
A smarter Supertrend that filters out fake signals in choppy markets.
No more whipsaws. No more overtrading. Just clean entries.
🔹 HOW IT WORKS
🟢 GREEN line below price = BULLISH (look for longs)
🔴 RED line above price = BEARISH (look for shorts)
Signals only appear when:
✓ ADX > 20 (market is trending)
✓ Minimum 5 bars since last signal (no rapid flips)
🔹 SETTINGS
| Setting | Default | Range |
|-------------|---------|------------|
| ATR Period | 12 | 10-14 |
| Factor | 3.0 | 2.5-3.5 |
| Min ADX | 20 | 15-25 |
| Min Bars | 5 | 3-8 |
Lower ADX = more signals (noisier)
Higher ADX = fewer signals (cleaner)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🎯 SCALPING STRATEGY
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
▶ LONG SETUP
1. Wait for 🟢 ▲ signal
2. Enter next candle
3. SL: Below green line
4. TP: 1.5-2R
▶ SHORT SETUP
1. Wait for 🔴 ▼ signal
2. Enter next candle
3. SL: Above red line
4. TP: 1.5-2R
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
💡 PRO TIPS
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
✅ DO:
• Use on 5m, 15m, 1H
• Trade with the trend
• Combine with S/R levels
• Risk 1% per trade
• Wait for clean signal
❌ DON'T:
• Trade flat markets
• Chase after big moves
• Ignore HTF trend
• Overtrade
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⚡ QUICK REFERENCE
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
GREEN LINE = BUY ZONE | RED LINE = SELL ZONE
▲ = Long entry | ▼ = Short entry
Line = Stop loss | Line = Stop loss
════════════════════════════════════════════
👍 Like if useful
💬 Comment your results
🔔 Follow for more
RSI adaptive zones with divergencesThis script is modified version of Adaptive RSI,
Thanks to creator of the script, modification is made by cloude code.
Adaptive RSIThe Adaptive RSI is a new version of the famous RSI that can adapt to environments and produce both Mean Reverting & Trend Following signals.
The Benefits
- Adaptive behaviour can allow fast entries while also filtering false signals
- Provides signals for both catching high/low value zones and trends
- Very good trend catching in trending environments
- Visualization provides Overbought/Oversold signal highlighting of more restrictive (diamonds) and less restrictive type (background), divergence between smoothed and basic RSI, Adaptive RSI values and bar coloring.
- Works well on BINANCE:BNBUSD
The Idea
The main idea is to give the RSI a more adaptive approach to do the market, so it can speed it up during potential oppurtunities and slow down during more dangerous environments.
This would theoreticly allow it to be a lot more versatile and provide a more accurate set of signals. On top of that, the adaptive approach could not only provide great entries but also exits when following the indicator mean-reverting style.
How it works
The indicator sets up 3 conditions, the more of them are true, the more aggressive approach will be chosen. This allows the indicator to shift speed, adapt to any environment and avoid too many false signals.
Then it uses a smoothing to improve accuracy, that is adaptive in the same way as the RSI itself.
It also has a option for a special ROC-weighted source, which however I do not recommend using unless you understand coding & know how it works.
Hope you enjoy Gs!
Please keep in mind no indicator is perfect and that every indicator has flaws
Smart Reversal [Scalping-Algo]════════════════════════════════════════════
Smart Reversal
This indicator identifies potential reversal points using a two-step confirmation method that I developed for my own scalping. Unlike typical reversal indicators that rely on RSI oversold/overbought or simple candlestick patterns, this uses a different approach.
🔹 HOW IT WORKS
The logic is based on two phases:
Phase 1 - Anchor Detection:
The indicator looks for candles where price closes beyond ALL previous candles in the lookback period. For a bullish setup, the close must be below the lows of the last N candles (default 20). This isn't just a "lower low" - it's an extreme extension where price has broken below every single candle in the range. I also require this candle to have above-average volume (2x the 20-period average) to confirm real selling pressure, not just a gap or low-liquidity move.
Phase 2 - Confirmation:
After an anchor forms, I wait for price to reverse and close above the anchor candle's high (for buys) or below the anchor's low (for sells). This must happen within 3 bars. If price makes a new extreme instead, the setup cancels.
🔹 SIGNAL QUALITY SCORING
Each signal gets a score from 3/5 to 5/5:
- 3/5: Basic confirmation occurred
- 4/5: Anchor or confirmation had strong volume
- 5/5: Both volume conditions met + aligned with 200 EMA trend
I focus on 4/5 and 5/5 signals personally.
🔹 WHAT YOU SEE ON CHART
- Green/Red boxes: Active setup waiting for confirmation
- B or S labels: Confirmed signals with quality score
- Dashboard: Shows current status and volume condition
🔹 SETTINGS
- Bars to Check: How many candles for the breakout comparison (default 20)
- Confirmation Window: Bars allowed after anchor for confirmation (default 3)
- Volume thresholds: Adjustable multipliers for anchor (2x) and confirmation (1.2x)
🔹 SUGGESTED USE
- Works on any timeframe, but I use it mainly on 5-15 min charts
- Better results when combined with key support/resistance levels
- Avoid trading during high-impact news
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Argentina FX BandsEN
This indicator plots Argentina's FX band system implemented by the BCRA starting April 11, 2025. It shows the floor and ceiling for the ARS/USD exchange rate. Inside the band, the rate floats. Touching the floor implies USD buying; touching the ceiling implies USD selling.
Phase rules:
- Phase 1 (Apr 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2025): floor moves -1% per month, ceiling moves +1% per month
- Phase 2 (Jan 1, 2026 onward): both bands adjust by inflation with a 2-month lag (T-2)
Projections: next month's inflation is assumed equal to the latest known inflation unless you enter a custom value.
Disclaimer: Educational only. No investment advice.
---
ES
Bandas Cambiarias BCRA - Fase 3
Este indicador grafica el esquema de bandas cambiarias implementado por el BCRA a partir del 11 de abril de 2025. Muestra el piso y el techo del tipo de cambio ARS/USD y su evolucion en el tiempo.
Reglas por fase:
- Fase 1 (11 Abr 2025 a 31 Dic 2025): el piso baja 1% mensual y el techo sube 1% mensual
- Fase 2 (desde 1 Ene 2026): ambas bandas se ajustan por inflacion con rezago T-2 (2 meses)
Proyecciones: se asume que la inflacion del proximo mes es igual a la ultima inflacion conocida, salvo que ingreses un valor personalizado.
Aviso legal: Solo informativo y educativo. Eco Valores S.A. no brinda asesoramiento ni recomendaciones de inversion. Consulte a un profesional calificado antes de invertir.
Breakeven LECAPs BONCAPsEN
Breakeven LECAPs & BONCAPs (ARS → USD) + Futures Curve
This indicator plots the breakeven USD/ARS exchange rate for Argentine fixed-rate Treasury instruments LECAPs (S tickers) and BONCAPs (T tickers), showing the USD/ARS level at each maturity where holding the peso instrument would match the performance of holding dollars.
What you get
• Breakeven labels at (Maturity Date, Breakeven Dollar)
• Automatic FX benchmarks:
• Dólar MEP: BCBA:AL30 / BCBA:AL30D
• Dólar Cable (CCL): BCBA:AL30 / BCBA:AL30C
• Optional Custom Dollar input (1000–10000 ARS)
• Optional MatbaRofex USD futures labels at their expiry dates
• Optional polynomial regression curves for LECAPs, BONCAPs, and Futures (degree 1–4), with independent toggles, colors, and smoothness points
Core calculations
• Direct Return = (Maturity Price / Last Price) - 1
• TNA (Annualized Rate) = Direct Return × 365 / Days to Maturity
• Breakeven Dollar = Current Dollar × (1 + Direct Return)
Tooltip (hover labels)
Ticker/type, maturity date, days to maturity, current price, maturity price (px_finish), direct return, TNA, and breakeven value.
⸻
ES
Breakeven LECAPs & BONCAPs (ARS → USD) + Curva de Futuros
Este indicador grafica el tipo de cambio USD/ARS de equilibrio (breakeven) para instrumentos de tasa fija del Tesoro argentino LECAPs (tickers S) y BONCAPs (tickers T). Te muestra a qué nivel de dólar, en cada vencimiento, una inversión en pesos igualaría el rendimiento de quedarse en dólares.
Qué muestra
• Etiquetas de breakeven en (Fecha de vencimiento, Dólar breakeven)
• Referencias automáticas de tipo de cambio:
• Dólar MEP: BCBA:AL30 / BCBA:AL30D
• Dólar Cable (CCL): BCBA:AL30 / BCBA:AL30C
• Opción de Dólar Custom (1000–10000 ARS)
• Opción de mostrar futuros de USD MatbaRofex en sus vencimientos
• Curvas de regresión polinómica opcionales para LECAPs, BONCAPs y Futuros (grado 1–4), con toggle, color y suavizado configurables por separado
Cálculos principales
• Retorno Directo = (Precio de vencimiento / Último precio) - 1
• TNA = Retorno Directo × 365 / Días al vencimiento
• Dólar Breakeven = Dólar actual × (1 + Retorno Directo)
Tooltip (pasar el mouse por las etiquetas)
Ticker/tipo, fecha de vencimiento, días restantes, precio actual, precio de vencimiento (px_finish), retorno directo, TNA y valor de breakeven.
==================== DISCLAIMER / AVISO LEGAL ====================
This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only.
Eco Valores S.A. does NOT provide investment advice or recommendations.
Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Este indicador es solo para fines informativos y educativos.
Eco Valores S.A. NO brinda asesoramiento ni recomendaciones de inversion.
Consulte con un asesor financiero calificado antes de invertir.
===================================================================
SMA 2 & SMA 12 configurables + alertesEnjoy to use this indicator used in Powertrade community.
Thanks to Patrick, for his community.
It's a powerfull signal for sell and buy.
When the SMA 2 days goes above the SMA 12 days, it's a buy signal.
When the SMA 2 days goes below the SMA 12 days, it's a sell signal.
I recommand too, the use of : jeremiefranklin1 indicator based on 2 DEMA 20 + Choch patterns by BigBeluga + daily Candle by Natantia.
This combination will give you a really powerfull trading setup to earn lots of money with different trading assets.
Have fun.
