Effort-Result Divergence [Interakktive]The Effort-Result Divergence (ERD) measures whether volume effort is producing proportional price result. It quantifies the classic Wyckoff principle: when price moves easily, momentum is real; when price struggles despite heavy volume, absorption is occurring.
Think of ERD as "energy efficiency" for price movement — green means price is gliding, red means price is grinding.
█ WHAT IT DOES
• Measures volume EFFORT relative to average volume
• Measures price RESULT relative to ATR-normalized movement
• Computes ERD = Result minus Effort (each scaled 0-100)
• Flags statistical divergences via Z-score analysis
• Absorption events: high effort, low result (negative ERD)
• Vacuum events: low effort, high result (positive ERD)
█ WHAT IT DOES NOT DO
• NO buy/sell signals
• NO entry/exit recommendations
• NO alerts (v1 is educational only)
• NO performance claims or guarantees
This is a context tool for understanding market participation quality.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The ERD analyzes two dimensions of market activity and compares them.
EFFORT (Volume Intensity)
Compares current volume to a moving average baseline:
Effort Ratio = Volume ÷ SMA(Volume, Length)
Effort Score = clamp(100 × Effort Ratio ÷ Effort Cap)
High effort means above-average volume participation.
Low effort means below-average volume participation.
RESULT (Price Efficiency)
Measures how much price moved relative to expected volatility:
Result Ratio = |Close − Previous Close| ÷ ATR
Result Score = clamp(100 × Result Ratio ÷ Result Cap)
High result means price moved significantly for the volatility regime.
Low result means price barely moved despite market activity.
ERD SCORE
ERD = Result − Effort
• Positive ERD: Result exceeds effort → price moved easily (vacuum/thin liquidity)
• Negative ERD: Effort exceeds result → price struggled (absorption/accumulation)
• Near zero: Balanced effort-to-result relationship
STATISTICAL DIVERGENCE DETECTION
Z-score analysis identifies statistically significant extremes:
Z = (ERD − Mean) ÷ StdDev
• Absorption Event: Z ≤ −threshold (extreme negative ERD)
• Vacuum Event: Z ≥ +threshold (extreme positive ERD)
█ INTERPRETATION
GREEN BARS (Positive ERD)
Price moved with relatively little volume effort. This suggests:
• Thin liquidity / low resistance
• Strong directional interest
• Momentum is "real" — not forced
RED BARS (Negative ERD)
Heavy volume was used but price barely moved. This suggests:
• Absorption / accumulation occurring
• Large players opposing the move
• Inefficiency — someone is working hard for little result
THE KEY INSIGHT
When you see:
• Down moves = high effort (red spikes)
• Up moves = low effort (green bars)
This means: It's easier for price to go up than down.
That is asymmetric strength — classic bullish pressure.
The reverse (red on up moves, green on down moves) signals bearish pressure.
PRACTICAL RULES
Without any other indicators:
• Avoid shorting when ERD is mostly green and red spikes appear only on down candles
• Be cautious buying when ERD turns red on up candles (signals absorption of buying pressure)
• Vacuum events (extreme green) often precede continuation or pause — not violent reversal
• Absorption events (extreme red) often precede reversals or range formation
█ VOLUME DATA NOTE
This indicator uses the volume variable which represents:
• Exchange volume on stocks and futures
• Tick volume on Forex and CFD instruments
Tick volume is a proxy for activity, not actual exchange volume. The indicator remains useful on Forex as relative volume comparisons are still meaningful, but interpretation should account for this limitation.
█ INPUTS
Core Settings
• Volume Average Length: Baseline period for effort calculation (default: 20)
• ATR Length: Volatility normalization period (default: 14)
• Effort Cap: Volume ratio that maps to 100% effort (default: 3.0)
• Result Cap: ATR multiple that maps to 100% result (default: 1.0)
Divergence Detection
• Z-Score Lookback: Statistical analysis window (default: 100)
• Z-Score Threshold: Standard deviations for event flags (default: 2.0)
Visual Settings
• Show ERD Histogram: Toggle main display
• Show Zero Line: Toggle reference line
• Show Divergence Markers: Toggle event circles
• Show Effort/Result Lines: Display component breakdown
█ ORIGINALITY
While Wyckoff's effort-versus-result principle is well-established, existing implementations are typically:
• Purely visual with no quantification
• Pattern-based requiring subjective interpretation
• Not statistically normalized for comparison across instruments
ERD is original because it:
1. Normalizes both effort and result to 0-100 scales for direct comparison
2. Uses ATR for result normalization (adapts to volatility regime)
3. Applies statistical Z-score for objective divergence detection
4. Provides quantified output suitable for systematic analysis
█ DATA WINDOW EXPORTS
When enabled, the following values are exported:
• Effort (0-100)
• Result (0-100)
• ERD Score
• Z-Score
• Absorption Event (1/0)
• Vacuum Event (1/0)
█ SUITABLE MARKETS
Works on: Stocks, Futures, Forex, Crypto
Best on: Instruments with reliable volume data (stocks, futures, crypto)
Timeframes: All timeframes — interpretation adapts accordingly
█ RELATED
• Market Efficiency Ratio — measures price path efficiency
• Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis — conceptual foundation
█ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Marketefficiency
[BCT] Can BTC be predicted or is it purely random?Variance Ratio**This indicator can be applied to the ticker of your choice (not just BTC)**
Markets are said to be "efficient". An efficient market is by definition unpredictable - no matter the amount of ML, computation, or indicators thrown at it. In particular, in an efficient market, TA will not be of help.
An illustration of efficient markets is the WSJ's longstanding monkey vs. human contest:Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans With Stock Picks, granted there are several flaws to it.
BTC is a relatively new market. New markets are typically highly inefficient (easier to make money) and become more and more efficient over time (harder to make money). How much more efficient is BTC becoming?
We apply the Variance Ratio method and apply it to BTC.
BACKGROUND ON THE VARIANCE RATIO METHOD
Based on 1988 MacKinlay's seminal paper "Stock Market Prices do not Follow a Random Walk", the idea is to exploit a phenomenon called "variance scaling".
For those keen on looking into the math, the short version of it is under the assumption of iid (random walk) we have the following:
H0: Var(Sum(returns over K bars))=Sum(Var(returns over 1 bar))=k*Var(return over 1 bar)
We look to reject or not H0 depending on the observations.
In this script, we compare the variance of the (log) returns for the chart selected between:
(1) The (average) variance over k bars (call this Vk)
(2) The (average) variance over 1 bar (call this V1)
H0 simply says that Vk=k*V1 if the stock follows a random walk.
We compute the Variance Ratio VR(k)=Variance(returns over k bar)/(Sum(Var(returns over 1 bar)))-1
We then compute the associated Z-score which we chart out for a configurable k number of bars.
HOW TO INTERPRET THE CHART
The line drawn is the Z-Score for VR(k). It represents the number of standard deviations of VR(k) from 0 - the further out, the less random.
- If the line is close / hovers around 0, the ticker appears to follow a random walk (i.e. may not be predictable)
- If the line is consistently > 2 or <-2, the ticker likely does not follow a random walk (i.e. may have predictable features)
- If the line is positive, it means that the Variance on the k bars is larger than the variance on 1 bar (more variance on longer timeframes)
- If the line is negative, it means that the Variance on the k bars is smaller than the variance on 1 bar (more variance on smaller timeframes)
USE CASES
- Identify timeframes where you won't be able to make money
- Identify whether a stock cannot be predicted (forget about TA, indicators etc. -- a random walk is not predictable)
- Identify whether a stock is becoming less and less predictable (Z-score amplitude will decrease over time)
FEATURES
- select the number of K bar to compare vs. 1 bar (default = 16) - ideally a power of 2 but any other number will work. The chart is based off this selection
- select the lookback period for the analysis (500 bars by default)
- select the source to analyze (default = close, but you may select other inputs to calculate the returns from)
- results form the statistical tests on different K's in the table on the right/bottom side of the chart (H0 rejected = not random walk; H0 not rejected = it essentially looks rather random and we can't conclude that it's not a random walk)
COMMENTARY ON BTC
- It appears BTC's absolute value of the ZScore on the Variance Ratio is declining year after year - corroborating an increasingly efficient market as new participants join.
- However, we can still detect a fair amount of potential inefficiency using this simple test.
As usual, this is not investment advice. DYOR.
With love,
🐵BCT🐵
